Editorial 1 : India’s neighbourhood watch, past and present
Context
Turbulence in India’s neighbourhood and its implications on India over the years till present.
Introduction
Even though India's neighbourhood appears to be in turmoil, the country occasionally engages in unnecessary self-criticism when things go awry, largely because it tends to overestimate its influence on the outcomes of regional events.
Change occurring in India’s neighbourhood within a short span (2008-10)
Between 2008 and 2010, a mere three-year period, significant events unfolded in India's neighbourhood, ushering in democracy and promising much.
Bangladesh
Military rule in Bangladesh (December 2008): Post military rule under General Moeen U. Ahmed, Sheikh Hasina became Prime Minister (2009) riding on the strength of a massive mandate, especially from women and youth.
India’s Role in Bangladesh Elections of 2008: External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee subtly catalysed free elections in Bangladesh. Over 15 years, India and Bangladesh developed a mutually beneficial partnership, with Ms. Hasina’s government respecting India's core interests.
Sri-Lanka
India’s role in defeat of LTTE (May 2009): Due to India’s sustained engagement with Sri Lanka, the group- The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), was finally defeated.
This paved way for India to look forward to closer relations with a united Sri Lanka.
Maldives
Democratic elections in Maldives (October 2008): After 30 years of President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom’s autocratic reign, the first multi-party democratic elections were held where Mohamed Nasheed took over as President.
Indian efforts to stabilise Maldives new democracy: Despite ups and downs, India’s assistance to the Maldives has resulted in three different Presidents over the last three consecutive elections, demonstrating the country’s democratic maturity over nearly 16 year.
Myanmar
Myanmar elections (2010): Were held after 20 years of military rule.
Elections were held in which the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) came to power.
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was freed after phases of imprisonment.
Suu Kyi’s party - National League for Democracy (NLD) had landslide wins in 2015 and 2020, indicating a strengthening of democratic roots.
Pakistan
Democratic step: Pakistan elected a civilian government in 2008, sending President Pervez Musharraf into exile.
India’s role in ushering of democracy in neighbourhood (2008-10)
The developments gave hope that democracy, with all its imperfections, was taking root in India’s neighbourhood.
The years 2008-10 also witnessed an exponential increase in India’s development assistance to its neighbours like:
The rebuilding of northern Sri Lanka
Extending the biggest ever line of credit to Bangladesh, of $1 billion
Through connectivity projects in Myanmar
Budgetary support to stabilise the fledgling democracy in the Maldives
Thus, India could more than match China’s “chequebook diplomacy” in its neighbourhood.
The present neighbourhood situation (2021-24)
Bangladesh
Collapse of democracy in Bangladesh: Ms. Hasina’s government collapsed in August 2024 under the weight of its own democracy deficit, an economic downturn and a violent quashing of student protests that anti-Hasina forces joined in later.
India’s limited role: It is difficult to decide how much a leader should be pressured to change course without seeming to interfere in a country’s internal affairs, especially when there is appreciation of each other’s national interests.
Individual v/s Institutional links: India’s bias toward Ms. Hasina is being scrutinized. While personal relationships are important, India failed to maintain regular engagement with Bangladesh’s Opposition.
Sri-Lanka
Mass Anti-government movement (2022): The President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled Sri Lanka, unable to control a series of mass anti-government “Aragalaya” protests led mostly by apolitical irate public and youth.
Its democracy and the economy took a severe beating, the after-effects of which are still being felt in Sri Lanka.
India’s role in Sri-Lankan crises: India’s timely and generous bailout package of about $4 billion saved the economy.
Having established connections across Sri Lanka's political spectrum, India is well-positioned regardless of the outcome of the upcoming elections.
India has even made peace with the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, a right-wing party which has usually been anti-India in its stand.
Maldives
Elections in Maldives (2024): The results of elections in the Maldives caught India on the wrong foot as President Mohamed Muizzu’s huge win where was not favoured as it did not engage with him earlier.
Indian intervention with Maldives: After Maldives’ first elections when President Nasheed (2008-12) was in trouble without a majority in the Majlis.
India “counseled” him on the importance of respecting the “coalition mantra”.
However, he was not persuaded and ended up losing his presidency.
So much for India turning a blind eye to the “mistakes” of its friends.
Myanmar
Military regime takeover (February 2021): Despite the 2020 elections having given the NLD a huge mandate. Myanmar military are dealing with the Opposition and ethnic groups gaining ground.
Impact on India: The conflict is spilling over into India’s north-east.
India’s dilemma: On whether to stay with the military to protect itself from insurgents using Myanmar soil or to side with the rejuvenated Opposition forces fighting for change, since India cannot afford to lose Myanmar in this balancing act.
Afghanistan
Entry of Taliban (August 2021): The Taliban forcibly captured power after two decades, turning the clock back in Afghanistan.
India’s viewpoint on Afghan politics: Currently, India is fending for itself from the fall-out. Earlier, India had anticipated this and even cautioned the United States, but the U.S. kept its “strategic” partner India out of its engagement with Taliban for fear of offending Pakistan.
Pakistan
Death of Democracy and Military Rule (2022): And Pakistan saw its civilian government toppled in 2022, widely seen as at the army’s behest as in the past.
Way forward: New Delhi’s response as key factor
Positive developments on India’s efforts include:
On Sri-Lanka: India has not done too badly considering that it bailed out Sri Lanka financially when Colombo needed India the most.
On Maldives: India extended friendship and patience with the new Maldivian government to find its feet.
On Afghanistan: India expressed willingness to do business with Taliban in Afghanistan to protect India’s geopolitical interests.
On Nepal: India re-extended the hand of friendship to an unstable but democratic Nepal after an attempt to pressure Nepal boomeranged on India.
Conclusion
Challenging neighbourhood developments for India include; on Myanmar - the country is veering toward a possible civil war; and on Bangladesh- the country is struggling to get back on its democratic feet.
In both cases, going along with forces trying to keep democratic space open is India’s best bet.
In Myanmar, used as India is to an uneasy alliance of the army and NLD, India needs a different approach with ethnic groups getting into this mix.
In Bangladesh, India needs a new understanding with parties, not all of whom are favourable to India and keep out external anti-India forces waiting to take advantage of the situation.
Amid these upheavals, the significance of India’s strong developmental support as a foundation for closer ties with its neighbours is often underestimated. Even the Taliban hesitated to attack Indian projects over the last two decades since it benefited the people. These factors highlight the need for India to maintain more consistent engagement with its neighbours and the region.
Context
The underlying differences are beginning to hurt Mahayuti.
Introduction
In the ruling coalition in Maharashtra, the Mahayuti, the tensions between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) led by Ajit Pawar, are visible to all.
Coalition discords in Maharashtra
Conclusion
Many in the BJP blame the Ajit Pawar group for the debacle in the Lok Sabha election. Ajit Pawar also appears unsure of his association with the BJP and the Sena. He surprised his alliance partners by admitting that fielding his wife Sunetra against his cousin Supriya Sule in the general election was a mistake. He also said that he had asked the BJP not to target Sharad Pawar and felt that Mr. Modi’s remark calling Mr. Pawar a ‘Bhatakti Atma’, or an aimless soul, while on the campaign trail in the run-up to the general election did not appeal to the people. Ajit Pawar's wavering stance and criticism of the BJP's campaign strategy suggest deepening rifts within the alliance, raising questions about its future cohesion.