Editorial 1: Summer resolution: On the IMD’s heat wave forecasts
Introduction:
- India Meteorological Department (IMD) in April 2023 predicted that the summer months will be searingly hot.
About IMD:
- India Meteorological Department (IMD) was established in 1875 at Headquarters New Delhi. It is an agency of the Ministry of Earth Sciences of the Government of India.
- It is the National Meteorological Service of the country and the principal government agency in all matters relating to meteorology and allied subjects. It is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology.
- IMD is also one of the six Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres of the World Meteorological Organization (RSMCs of WMO) of Tropical Cyclones. RSMC New Delhi is responsible for naming the cyclones in the northern Indian ocean region.
Heat Waves in India:
- A heat wave is a period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot and usually humid weather. In India, Heatwave is considered if the maximum temperature of a station reaches at least 40 degrees C or more for the Plains and at least 30 degrees C or more for Hilly regions.
IMD Forecast:
- Most parts of the country are expected to experience above normal maximum temperatures during the “hot weather season” of India (March-May), barring parts of peninsular and northwest India, which would see normal or even below normal ‘maximum’ temperatures.
- This does not mean that northwest India, which sees temperatures well over 45°C, will be comfortable. ‘Above normal heatwave days, characterised by temperatures 4°-5°C above what is usual for that time in a region, are likely to occur over most parts of central, eastern and northwest India during the hot weather season,’ its forecast notes.
Impact of El Niño:
- El Niño is a warming of sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Central Pacific, that is strongly associated with reduced rains over northwest India. Many El Niño years also see reduced monsoon rainfall during June to September and are often associated with drought-like conditions.
- The IMD’s official outlook says that ‘neutral’ (neither El Niño, or its converse, a cooling La Niña) conditions are persisting in the Pacific. The World Meteorological Organization’s outlook says that the chances of El Niño developing gradually increase from 15% in April-June, to 35% in May-July, and rise to around 55% during June-August. Later this month, the IMD is expected to announce its first forecast for the monsoon and this will hinge on the El Niño-La Niña development.
Lacunae in addressing heat waves in India:
- Many States have prepared documents that detail measures and methods to deal with heat-related contingencies, that, as reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warn, are only poised to get worse. But, many of these recommendations are only on paper.
- An analysis by researchers at the Centre for Policy Research of such heat action plans found that most of them are not made to capture local context. For instance, only dangers from unusually high temperatures are evaluated and almost none from humidity and warm nights. Several plans are under-funded and lack legal backing.
Way forward: NDMA Guidelines and other measures:
- The purpose of forecasts is to give lead time to States to prepare. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has been issuing guidelines to States on preparing Heat Action Plans since 2016.
(From NDMA website)
Conclusion:
- Heat wave forecasts should be taken as seriously as monsoon forecasts, and the Centre as well as State governments must play a more coordinated role in implementing these plans.
Editorial 2: What was the U.N. water conference and what happened there?
Context:
- The United Nations (UN) Water Conference 2023 held in New York recently was the first such meeting on water after 46 years. The last U.N. Water Conference was held in 1977, and it was groundbreaking in achieving the first global ‘Action Plan’ that led to several decades of global funding and concerted effort to provide drinking water and sanitation for all. These actions substantially reduced the population without access to safe drinking water in much of the developing world.
About UN Water Conference 2023:
- The conference coincided with the mid-term comprehensive review of the International Decade for Action. In a report entitled ‘Water for Sustainable Development 2018–2028’, the U.N. recognised the urgent need for action given that we are not on track to meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) no. 6 for water: “Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all”.
- It aimed to place water at the centre of the climate agenda in activities building up to the High Level Political Forum (HLPF) in New York in July and the UNFCCC COP28 climate talks to be held in Dubai later this year.
- Such international conferences serve to better align activities by governments, companies, NGOs, and funders around a few grand challenges. They also help countries learn from the experiences of others, transfer technology, and invest.
Challenges in water accessibility:
1.Funding:
- While addressing access to safe drinking water and sanitation (SGD 6.1 and 6.2) is challenging, extending services to underserved populations is relatively uncontroversial: it comes down to finding the money to pay for it. Indeed, this is already occurring in India through government programmes such as Swachh Bharat Mission and Jal Jeevan Mission.
2.Groundwater over-extraction
- Such over-abstraction is mostly driven by agricultural pumping. But if we are to solve this over-abstraction problem in heavily irrigated places like Punjab or the Cauvery delta, there is just no other way than to pump less. There simply isn’t enough rainfall for everyone to grow paddy year-round; and while paddy has a minimum support price, other less water-intensive crops do not.
3.Policy support
- We also know farmers aren’t going to change their behaviour until agricultural policies change, which in turn requires many agencies and ministries to work together.
- As such, the water problem is no longer about access to water and sanitation; these represent only two of the eight water-related SDGs. The remaining SDG 6 targets address the need to sustain agriculture, industry, and natural ecosystems. They have metrics that track better governance, improve efficiency of irrigation water use, restore the water quality in lakes and rivers, and improve wastewater management.
Outcomes of the 2023 conference:
- There were no legally binding commitments but diverse voluntary commitments by philanthropic donors, governments, corporations, and NGOs; 120 of these were relevant to India.
- They included:
- Water Action Agenda (2023) formed by the 700+ voluntary commitments on water and SDG 6.
- Technology – There were specific innovations in wastewater treatment or solar treatment of water in remote areas, and a number of proposals for incubation platforms, including the IBM Sustainability Accelerator, focused on water management.
- Data and models – Efforts like the World Meteorological Organisation’s Hydrological Status and Outlook System, offered data analysis tools.
- Knowledge sharing – W12+ Blueprint, a UNESCO platform that hosts city profiles and case studies of programs, technologies, policies that addresses common water security challenges.
- Capacity building – Efforts like the Making Rights Real initiative offered to help marginalised communities and women understand how to exercise their rights. Similarly, the ‘Water for Women Fund’ offered support mechanisms for more effective and sustainable water, sanitation, and hygiene outcomes for women.
Nation-specific committments:
- A $50-billion commitment from the Indian government to improve rural drinking water services under its Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM).
- Climate resilient water and sanitation infrastructure - USA announced a commitment of up to $49 billion in investments to support climate resilient water and sanitation infrastructure and services
- Quality Infrastructure - Japan announced that it will contribute 500 billion yen to the solution of water-related social issues faced by the Asia-Pacific region by developing quality Infrastructure
- River basins management and clean running water –Vietnam pledged to develop policies for major river basins management by 2025 and clean running water by 2030
- Africa’s water investments gap - The African Union Commission and Continental Africa Investment Programme (AIP) aims to close Africa’s water investments gap by mobilizing at least $30 billion per year by 2030.
- European Union (EU) - To support 70 million individuals to an improved drinking water source and sanitation facility by 2030.
- Water Convention and transboundary cooperation – Switzerland submitted 5 commitments in these areas.
Conclusion:
- Effective water governance hinges on these broad areas ,and weaving them into the Water Action Agenda is a step. But time will tell how we carry these commitments forward as we move into the HLPF and COP processes.