Topic 1 : Good growth, low demand: On the NSO projection
Context: Government spending seems to be propping up growth.
Introduction
- The first advance estimates of national income for the current fiscal year present a picture of an economy on steroids — of government spending.
NSO’s projections!
- While the NSO has made bold to project real GDP growth marginally quickening to a 7.3% pace, from 2022-23’s 7.2%, scrutiny of sectoral output figures that together form the gross value added, and the demand data reflected in expenditure numbers posit an economy still searching for durable drivers of consumption-led growth.
- While overall GVA growth is seen slowing to 6.9%, from the preceding fiscal’s 7%, the agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishing sector — the bedrock of the rural economy, one of the largest providers of work and the second-largest generator of economic value outside the services economy — will see output expanding by 1.8%, the slowest in eight years and less than half of 2022-23’s 4% pace.
Optimistic pace of growth!
- And even this pace of growth may be optimistic given the estimated shortfall in kharif output and lag in rabi sowing, particularly in paddy and pulses. Equally, the second-largest component of the services economy, the omnibus trade, hotels, transport, communication and broadcasting sector — also a large provider of jobs — is estimated to witness more than a halving in the pace of growth — to 6.3%, from 14% last fiscal.
- Here too, the estimates reflect the trend evident in the NSO’s November 30 release of second-quarter GDP estimates and underscore the underlying loss of momentum in the post-pandemic rebound in services.
Looking at the demand side!
- On the demand side, private final consumption expenditure — the largest component of GDP with a share that till two decades ago exceeded 60% — is projected to log its slowest non-pandemic year expansion in more than 20 years.
- At 4.4%, private consumption spending growth is estimated to have been at its lowest ebb since the pandemic and accompanying lockdowns caused spending to contract by more than 5% in 2020-21, and just over half of 2022-23’s 7.5% pace.
Rural economy and Gross Fixed Capital Formation!
- With the rural economy struggling under the impact of the monsoon vagaries and the resultant weakness in farm output, demand for producers of a range of goods from soaps and detergents to packaged foods and two-wheelers is yet to regain any kind of vigour in the hinterland.
- Gross fixed capital formation, which includes government capital spending, remains the main bright spot and driver of momentum.
Conclusion
The NSO pegs GFCF growing 10.3% to reach a record 34.9% share of GDP this fiscal. With the general election just ahead, policymakers face an unenviable choice — keep the spending spigot fully open to prop up growth at the risk of fiscal slippage, or tighten the purse strings and risk further loss of momentum.
Topic 2 : Justice for Bilkis Bano, questions on remission
Context: While justice has been done in this case, difficult questions on state remission policies remain.
Introduction
- In an article in The Hindu (August 20, 2022), I had characterised the grant of remission to the 11 gang-rape and murder convicts in the Bilkis Bano case as an ‘injustice of exceptionalism’.
- The exceptional nature of this injustice is only exemplified by the Supreme Court of India’s judgment in the case delivered by Justices B.V. Nagarathna and Ujjal Bhuyan. As the decision notes, not only did one of the petitioners commit “fraud” by misleading an earlier Bench of the Court in getting a favourable order, leading ultimately to the release orders, but the Government of Gujarat was equally complicit.
Union of India vs V. Sriharan (2015)
- Despite the law being amply clear in a Constitution Bench decision in Union of India vs V. Sriharan (2015) that the appropriate government to decide a remission application is the State where the convicts are sentenced, the Court notes that the Gujarat government “usurped” power from the Government of Maharashtra.
- Consequently, the Court declared the earlier two judge Bench decision of the Supreme Court holding the Gujarat government as the appropriate government to grant remission in this case as illegal (per incuriam). In effect, the remission orders for the 11 convicts stand cancelled and the men have been directed to go back to the prison within two weeks’ time.
A resilience that prevailed.
- Given the exceptional nature of injustice that pervades Bilkis Bano’s struggle, the Supreme Court is rightfully being lauded for upholding the rule of law.
- As the decision reads, “rule of law and equality before the law would be empty words if their violation is not a matter of judicial scrutiny.”
- Significantly, the firm tone of the decision in calling out the illegalities and the collusion of the Gujarat government with the petitioners is likely to be a soothing balm in Bilkis Bano’s fight for justice.
- Justice Nagarathna’s words come as solace in light of the disturbing memory of the celebrations that followed the release of the 11 convicts in August 2022.
Concept of Remission in Prisons
- Prisons are State subjects, with rules identifying reformative activities for prisoners to earn remission.
- Remission is deducted from the actual sentence imposed by the court.
- Life convicts must serve a minimum of 14 years in prison before applying for remission.
- Each application is considered individually by a committee based on factors laid down by the Supreme Court in Laxman Naskar vs State of West Bengal (2000).
- Factors considered include individual crime, chance of recurrence, potential loss of crime, purpose of confinement, and socio-economic condition of the convict’s family.
- The subjective nature of these factors makes reasons guiding these decisions crucial.
- There is a lack of transparency in committee formation and reasons guiding decisions, making remission a potential site for arbitrary power.
Unchecked discretion
- The current case is one such example of unchecked discretion.
- Besides, the Supreme Court in Epuru Sudhakar vs State of Andhra Pradesh (2006) has held that judicial review of an order of remission is only available when there is a non-application of mind; relevant materials have not been considered, the order is mala fide, or based on irrelevant considerations or suffers from arbitrariness.
- In the absence of reasons guiding the decisions, there is little scope to challenge them on these grounds. This concern of non-application of mind is writ large in the case of the 11 convicts in Bilkis Bano’s case because the orders of the Gujarat government for each of them are exact copies.
- In the Bilkis Bano case on remission, the Supreme Court found illegalities and injustices that spoke to ‘fraud’ and ‘usurpation of power’ by the government, and, therefore, did not need to go into difficult normative questions.
- Certain remission policies of States present the question more starkly.
- States in India today have remission policies that completely deny remission opportunities to certain categories of offenders or have significantly longer periods of incarceration for certain offences before consideration of remission.
Conclusion
- We will need to confront the issue of whether certain offenders defined by crime categories must be ineligible for remission. Or are we better off focusing on developing appropriate conditions for remission and ensuring that there is meaningful and fair compliance with those conditions?
- A blanket denial of remission for crime categories, rather than ensuring effective compliance with remission conditions, takes us towards a punishment framework that is retributive. These are issues that the Court will inevitably be forced to grapple with sooner than later.