Editorial 1: Under Trump 2.0, the world and the India outlook

Context

There is every reason to believe that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump would be inclined to view India more favourably than others.

 

Introduction

Confirming the adage that the victor takes all, the stunning victory achieved by Donald Trump in the 2024 United States presidential election has transformed perceptions of him across the globe. There is many a reference to him being the most consequential American President since Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and of defining a new political era for America and the world. Similar hyperbolic statements have been made to the effect that following his latest victory, ‘the world lies at Trump’s feet’.

• President-elect Trump as an enigma: May or may not fit the description of an iconoclast — one who challenges cherished beliefs or venerated institutions on the grounds that they are erroneous or pernicious.
• Political control: Takes control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, making him appear unstoppable.
• Speculation about his actions
  • Deal with Russia: Speculation exists about a potential deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding Ukraine.
  • Burden on Iran: Possibility of imposing greater burdens on Iran to ease tensions in West Asia.
  • Reining in Israel: Consideration of finding ways to rein in Israel.

 

What the foreign policy outlook might be

Europe, West Asia, and China: Mr. Trump’s foreign policy priorities would be Europe, West Asia, and China.

Trump’s stance on NATO and Europe

• Criticism of NATO: Mr. Trump has been openly critical of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
• Europe’s attitude to defense: Trump is critical of Europe’s pusillanimous attitude to defence issues.
• Ukraine and European peace: Does not mean he will sacrifice Ukraine to ensure peace in Europe.
• Approach to Europe: His approach is unlikely to be transactional in nature.
• Peace in Europe: Giving up on Ukraine for ensuring peace in Europe seems highly unlikely.
• Europe’s contribution to defense: Mr. Trump would expect Europe to contribute far more towards its defence.
• Avoiding escalation: Unlikely to raise the stakes too high to avoid Ukraine turning into a conflict that implicitly takes on the character of a third world war.

 

Trump’s approach to the West Asia crisis

• Circumspect approach: Mr. Trump’s approach to the West Asia crisis is likely to be circumspect, notwithstanding speculation to the contrary.
• Zelenskyy and Netanyahu’s attempts: Both Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have sought to ingratiate themselves with him.
• Trump’s priorities: Trump is unlikely to be taken in by such manoeuvres.
• Family business dealings: Anyone who is familiar with Mr. Trump’s thinking and his family business dealings, would know what his priorities are likely to be and where they lie.
• Modus vivendi in West Asia: On what specific terms Mr. Trump would agree to a modus vivendi in West Asia is still in the realm of speculation.
• Prolongation of conflict: The prolongation of the conflict on Israel’s terms appears highly unlikely.

 

Trump’s approach towards China

• China as enemy number one: China heads the list of Mr. Trump’s ‘enemies’, followed by North Korea and Iran, with Russia bringing up the rear.
• Economic and trade issues: It is certain that as President, Mr. Trump would raise the stakes as far as China is concerned on economic and trade issues, including tighter export controls, and raising tariffs on Chinese exports to unprecedented heights.
• Avoiding rash actions: He is, however, likely to avoid any rash actions, conscious of the fact that China’s Peoples’ Liberation Army has been steadily preparing to confront the U.S. for quite some time and cannot be easily trifled with.
• Hypersonic arsenal: The U.S. is also aware that China is known to possess the world’s largest hypersonic arsenal, having missiles that can fly and manoeuvre at more than five times the speed of sound.

 

Taiwan as a potential flash point

• Testing the ground reality: Taiwan would remain a potential flash point. Nevertheless, like Sumo wrestlers, the U.S. under Mr. Trump and China under President Xi Jinping are more likely to test the ground reality, before embarking on a conflict that will not stop with Taiwan, the Pacific region or East Asia.

 

U.S. alliances in Asia and Australasia

• Strengthening alliances: Existing U.S. alliances with nations in Asia and Australasia are certain to be strengthened.
• Links with key nations: Already established links with Australia, Japan and South Korea would be further intensified.
• Trump as a peace guarantor: Yet, as President, Mr. Trump is unlikely to act as a guarantor of peace across the region, and one to be paid for by the U.S. exchequer.
• Limits to actions: Notwithstanding the impatience that he displays at present, there will be certain limits as far as his actions as President are concerned.

 

Ties with New Delhi

• India’s favourable treatment: Among the more important countries, there is every reason to believe that Mr. Trump would be inclined to view India more favourably than others.
• Trump and Modi's personalities: The personality of Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are in many ways not dissimilar; both demonstrate a ‘no nonsense’ approach to issues and problems and also appear to see them through a common prism.
• Powerful leaders: Both are powerful leaders who do not allow their political aides and others to change or alter the trajectory of their beliefs under any circumstances.
• Visceral dislike for China: Their dislike for China is visceral, and people in India are not likely to forget that in the wake of the Galwan incident in June 2020 (in which India lost 20 soldiers), Mr. Trump as U.S. President at the time appeared to support India.

 

The ‘Namaste Trump’ event

• The event in Ahmedabad: Capping the relationship between Mr. Trump, then President, and Mr. Modi was the ‘Namaste Trump’ event (in February 2020) in Ahmedabad.
• Large gathering: The event attracted over a lakh of people, perhaps the largest gathering for a foreign leader visiting India.
• Modi’s praise for Trump: On this occasion, Mr. Modi hailed Mr. Trump as a ‘true friend of India’ and a leader who was reshaping geopolitics.

 

Cooperation between India and the U.S.

• Common understanding on regional issues: During Mr. Trump’s previous tenure, both he and Mr. Modi seemed to arrive at a common understanding on issues and concerns affecting the Asia-Pacific region.
• Increased cooperation: If anything, the emphasis on cooperation between the two countries in defence, trade, and counter-terrorism has only increased.
• Military deal: On his previous visit to India as President, Mr. Trump had made a specific mention of the $3 billion military deal that existed between the two countries.

 

Trump’s views on India’s defense and alliances

• Helicopter deal: As incoming President, Mr. Trump is certain to be gratified that one of his first acts would be to sign a $1.17 billion deal for equipping MH-60R helicopters.
• India and the Quad: He would also be happy that India has firmed up its relationship with the Quad (comprising Australia, Japan, the U.S., and India), which is perceived as an anti-China alliance, even though India does not per se share the view that it is a security alliance.

 

Trump’s support for India over Bangladesh

• Support for Hindu minority in Bangladesh: Mr. Trump has also endeared himself to many Indians and the Indian establishment by making common cause with India over the plight of the Hindu minority in Bangladesh, who are facing a great deal of hostility from sectarian Islamic entities in that country, and who had forced former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee the country.
• Building cordiality and friendship: This has further helped build an atmosphere of cordiality and friendship which will stand the two countries in good stead.

 

Conclusion:  The role of technology

On the economic plane, India enjoys a slight advantage in terms of balance of payments, but this is nothing compared with what exists today between China and the U.S. In the case of U.S.-India relations, technology is certain to be a cementing rather than a divisive factor. Silicon Valley, which has a sizeable contingent of Indian tech entrepreneurs, could well serve as a vanguard to cement the relationship, quite contrary to the case of China. If innovation and dynamism is expected to be the hallmark of the new Trump Administration — with Elon Musk and others driving it — then the U.S.-India technological relationship is well set to approach the take-off point. India-U.S. relations will follow suit.

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Editorial 2: In energy-dependent world, the issue of food security

Context

There is a need to reimagine agriculture with the twin crises of food and energy insecurity set to challenge global priorities.

 

Introduction

“Addressing food insecurity and energy poverty is central to achieving global stability, but tackling these issues independently is no longer sufficient,” warns the World Bank in its latest report on climate and development. The intertwined crises of food and energy security are defining the trajectory of the 21st century, casting a long shadow over global stability. Both systems are under siege — food production is strained by climate change, population growth, and inequality, while energy systems face geopolitical tensions, outdated infrastructure, and the slow transition from fossil fuels. Yet, their interconnectedness presents an even greater challenge: agriculture, a lifeline for humanity, is both a significant energy consumer and a contributor to climate change. As the world teeters on the edge of multiple tipping points, can we truly address one without confronting the other?

 

Dependency on carbon-intensive energy

• Water consumption: Agriculture consumes nearly 70% of global freshwater resources.
• Greenhouse gas emissions: Responsible for over 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
• Dependence on fossil fuels: Fossil fuels used for mechanisation, irrigation, fertilizer production, and transportation.
  • Creates a vicious cycle of environmental degradation.
• Energy price Shocks: Reliance on fossil fuels exposes food systems to energy price fluctuations.. Threatens global stability.
• Climate change impact: Rising temperatures and erratic weather patterns disrupt agricultural output.
  • Puts the livelihoods of 2.5 billion people at risk.
• Food Insecurity Between 2020 and 2023, 11.8% of the global population faced severe food insecurity.
  • Projected to rise to 956 million by 2028.

 

Energy and Geopolitical Issues

• Renewable Energy Investment: $500 billion invested in renewable energy (2022).
• Fossil Fuel consumption: Fossil fuel consumption remains robust due to short-term economic and geopolitical pressures.
• Oil and Gas Expansion: The United States, Brazil, and Guyana continue expanding oil and gas production.
  • Prioritize exports and domestic energy security.
• Carbon-Intensive energy eependency: Ongoing dependency on fossil fuels exacerbates global food system vulnerability.
  • Particularly affects regions with limited access to reliable energy.

 

Energy Poverty and Global Inequities

• Energy poverty: Sharp global inequities exist in access to energy.
  • Low-income countries account for a small fraction of global energy demand.
  • Suffer disproportionately from energy supply disruptions.
• Infrastructure damage: Extreme weather events frequently damage energy infrastructure.
  • Power grids in some regions are already unreliable.
• Impact on agriculture: Energy deficits hinder agricultural productivity in rural areas.
  • Leads to higher food prices and deepens poverty.
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Fertilizer usage per hectare is far below the global average.
  • Contributes to food insecurity despite $1.9 billion spent on fertilizer imports in 2021.
  • This spending is more than double the amount in 2016.

 

Fossil Fuel Impact on Agriculture

• Natural Gas dependency: Natural gas is critical for fertilizer production (80% used for ammonia synthesis).
  • 20% of natural gas powers the fertilizer production process.
• Price volatility: Volatility in natural gas prices impacts fertilizer costs.
  • This volatility affects global food prices.
• Geopolitical disruptions: China’s 2021 ban on phosphate fertilizer exports disrupted agricultural supply chains.
  • India experienced significant delays in fertilizer imports during critical cropping seasons.
  • India imports 60% of its diammonium phosphate (DAP) fertilizers.

 

Renewable Energy and Agricultural Transformation

• Potential of renewable energy: Renewable energy offers potential to transform agriculture.
  • Solar-powered irrigation and biomass energy solutions could be key.
• Uneven deployment: High-income countries installed 83% of new renewable capacity in 2022.
  • Low-income nations remain reliant on outdated, carbon-intensive systems.
• Deployment challenges: High costs and inadequate infrastructure limit the reach of renewable energy in agriculture.
  • The transition risks bypassing regions that need it most.

 

Demands on agriculture

• Dual role of agriculture: Expected to feed a growing population and support the global energy transition by producing biofuels.
• Conflict between food security and energy needs: Biofuel production requires vast land and water resources.
  • Creates tension between food security and energy needs.
• Moral considerations: In a world where nearly 12% of the population faces hunger, is prioritising energy over food morally defensible?

 

Financial costs and solutions

• Basic caloric needs: Ensuring basic caloric needs for the most vulnerable populations will require $90 billion annually until 2030 (World Food Security Outlook).
• Malnutrition costs: Tackling malnutrition among women and children demands an additional $11 billion per year.
• Transforming food systems: Transforming global food systems could cost $300 billion–$400 billion annually, which is 0.5% of global GDP.
• Impact on low-income nations: In low-income nations, food insecurity costs can exceed 95% of GDP.

 

Consequences of inaction

• Global economic impact: Food insecurity is projected to cost the global economy trillions in lost productivity and adverse health outcomes.
• Climate-induced energy disruptions: Climate-induced energy disruptions threaten to destabilise entire regions, driving social unrest and mass migration.
• Africa’s mineral wealth: Africa's mineral wealth, essential for renewable technologies, is often extracted without benefiting local economies.
  • This perpetuates cycles of poverty and underdevelopment.

 

Conclusion: Need for inclusivity

Despite record investments in renewables, fossil fuel expansions continue unabated. Every delay compounds the human, environmental, and economic costs, narrowing opportunities for a resilient future. Clean energy solutions must address structural barriers to inclusivity, ensuring that the most vulnerable communities are not left behind. Ultimately, the twin crises of food and energy insecurity challenge global priorities. The solutions are within reach, but they require a fundamental shift in perspective. Agriculture must be reimagined as both a source of sustenance and a cornerstone of sustainable development. Failure to act will create the risk of pushing millions into hunger and undermining global climate goals.

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