Editorial 1 : A war that ends the Saudi-Israel ‘normalisation’ process
Context:
As Hamas launched its lethal attacks on Israel on October 7, the assault has firmly overturned Israeli efforts, supported by the United States, to promote a normalisation of relations with Arab states without conceding anything to the Palestinians. Specifically, the Gaza war has dealt a mortal blow to the efforts for Saudi Arabia to normalise ties with Israel.
Saudi-Israel relations:
In September 2023, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu waved two maps to embellish his speech at the United Nations General Assembly: one depicted an isolated Israel in 1948, while the other showed Arab neighbours that now had peace agreements with Israel — Egypt, Sudan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Jordan. It also showed all the occupied Palestinian territories — the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem — as integral parts of Israel.
U.S.backed diplomacy
U.S. officials pushed for diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, possibly within this year. The normalisation deal had hinged on three conditions that the kingdom had placed before the U.S.:
- U.S. approval for a civilian nuclear programme that provides for uranium enrichment within the country
- An “ironclad” U.S. security guarantee for the country
- Sales of advanced weapons.
The Americans were said to be insisting that Saudi Arabia return the favour as follows :
- Back U.S. interests on oil prices
- Dilute its political, military and technological ties with China
- Deepen strategic engagement with the U.S.
Issues with the new US- Saudi Arabia deal:
- Saudi Arabia’s three conditions for normalisation were contentious in Israel and the U.S. Several U.S. politicians opposed the idea of giving security guarantees to an authoritarian state. They also warned the U.S. President against Saudi Arabia developing its own nuclear programme, believing that it poses an unacceptable proliferation risk — a concern shared in Israel as well.
- There were also obstacles to the U.S. sales of advanced weapons, largely due to Saudi Arabia’s poor human rights record at home and in Yemen.
- Finally, there were concerns about Saudi insistence that arms supplies be accompanied by a transfer of technology to develop its arms industry.
- Despite these obstacles, the U.S. was confident the deal would go through. Palestinian interests and concerns did not figure in these normalisation discussions.
- At that time, Israel made provocative incursions into the Al Aqsa mosque complex, while the Jewish settlers in the West Bank increased their activities.
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Impact of the war on Indian interests in the region:
- The conflict in Israel and Palestine will not dampen plans for the India- Middle East- Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), Finance Minister recently said. However, violence has brought concerns about fuel and food security to the fore again.
- Indian government has condemned Hamas’ attack on Israeli civilians. This marks a departure from the traditional Indian foreign policy, which was supportive of Palestine till recently. India also supports the Two State solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, which envisions an independent State of Palestine alongside the State of Israel, west of the Jordan River.
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Saudi- Iran ties
- The Gaza war has once again placed the Palestinian issue at the centre of West Asian politics. Some writers are blaming Iran, arguing that the Islamic Republic has instigated the Hamas attacks to block Saudi Arabia’s normalisation initiative with Israel. This argument has little credibility.
- Saudi-Iran ties have already been normalised under Chinese mediation: embassies have been reopened in both capitals, high level visits have been exchanged and economic cooperation is being expanded.
- Now, following the Hamas attacks, the kingdom has recognised that peace and stability in the region are not possible without Palestinian interests being addressed.
Palestinian interests in focus
- Again, the Saudis have abandoned recourse to insincere verbal assurances to the Palestinians that were under consideration during the normalisation negotiations. The search now is for concrete action to serve Palestinian interests.
- Looking ahead, it has been obvious over the last three years that the kingdom had shrugged off the American yoke and was pursuing its foreign policy engagements in terms of its own interests, without any U.S. involvement. The kingdom rejects the U.S. interest in building an anti- China coalition globally and an anti- Iran cabal regionally.
Conclusion:
- Regardless of the U.S.’s wishes there is no question of Saudi Arabia accommodating the Americans on oil prices or diluting its comprehensive strategic ties with China. They exemplify its assertion of strategic autonomy and are an integral part of its quest for diverse, multifaceted, and substantial ties across Asia. Promoting the Palestinian cause will now form an important part of this foreign policy approach.
Editorial 2 : World’s water cycle severely impacted by climate change and human activities in 2022: WMO
Context:
- The circulation of water in the Earth-Atmosphere system has been significantly impacted by climate change and human activities, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Major findings:
- The ongoing melting of snow, ice and glaciers compounded the threat, exacerbating the risk of extreme weather events such as floods. These events cast long-term consequences on the water security of millions, warned WMO’s State of Global Water Resources 2022 report, released in October 2023.
- The effects on the hydrological cycle are leading to droughts and extreme rainfall events and the erratic water cycles unleashed widespread disruption, burdening livelihoods and economies, says WMO.
- The findings of the report are critical, as nearly four billion people are already experiencing severe water scarcity for at least a month every year.
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World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
It is a specialised agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting international cooperation on atmospheric science, climatology, hydrology and geophysics. Headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, the WMO is governed by the World Meteorological Congress, composed of member states, which meets every four years to set policies and priorities.
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Asian Water Tower (AWT):
- It is the world’s largest reservoir of ice and snow after the Arctic and Antarctic regions. It saw significant glacial melting in 2022. This altered the natural downward flow of major rivers — the Indus, Amu Darya, Yangtze and Yellow River — in the region, the document pointed out.
- AWT covers the Third Pole, which includes the Tibetan Plateau, the Himalayas, the Karakorum, the Hindu Kush, the Pamirs and the Tien Shan Mountains.
- The increasing pace of glacial melting in AWT, which provides a reliable water supply to almost two billion people, highlighted the deepening influence of climate change on regional water resources.
- A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. We are seeing much heavier precipitation episodes and flooding. And at the opposite extreme, more evaporation, dry soils and more intense droughts are also being seen.
- From 2000-18, the total glacier mass in the AWT decreased by approximately 4.3%. This led to a significant reduction in snow cover, shortening the snowmelt season. The number, total area and volume of glacier lakes have increased rapidly as a whole, pushing the lake’s water by approximately 16% of the total volume, said the report.
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Impacts on India
The risks of such glacial events were evident in India as well. North Sikkim witnessed devastating glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) after the South Lhonak Lake burst in October 2023.
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State of global rivers
- The snow cover in the Alps remained well below the 30-year average during the 2023 spring despite late snowfalls in May, as observed in the basins feeding the four major rivers — Rhine, Rhone, Danube and Po.
- The report also flagged deviations in the courses of rivers. The volume of water flowing through the rivers was lower than the normal. In 2022, over 50% of the global catchment areas experienced deviations from normal river discharge conditions.
- For instance, in Europe, the flow of rivers has decreased in summer owing to a major heatwave, drought and La Nina. Now, with El Nino in 2023, the hydrological cycle is likely to be impacted further, warned the document.
- The Horn of Africa experienced severe drought, affecting 21 million people’s food security. As a result, the volume of water in rivers flowing through the region was below the normal in 2022. The Congo River and the entire catchment of the Nile River in Central Africa exhibited reduced river discharge.
- As rivers dried up, the impacts were also visible across water reservoirs. Over 60% of major water reservoirs saw below or normal inflow. This challenges water availability in an increasingly changing climate.
Way forward:
- Including drought and floods, water management and monitoring lies at the heart of the global Early Warnings For All initiative that ensures everyone on Earth is protected by early warnings by 2027.
- The report called for enhanced data sharing to enable meaningful early warnings and more coordinated water management policies that are integral to climate action.
- Mid-way to 2030, when the world is far off from achieving sustainable development goal (SDG) 6: Clean Water and Sanitation, the report’s findings contribute towards informed decision-making relevant to the Sustainable development goals. It emphasised SDG 13 (climate adaptation) by focusing on climate-related impacts on water systems and calling for mitigation actions.