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23 Dec 2024 : The Hindu Editorial

Editorial 1: The global warming fight has a challenge for India

Context

India’s development needs cannot be ignored; as it has to grow and diversify to clean energy sources, this would mean higher costs and a longer transition time.

 

Introduction

The outcome of the climate conference (COP29) in Azerbaijan has been disappointing. The meeting took place at a time of transition in American politics. While international climate negotiations remain stalemated, nature is moving inexorably towards becoming a hotter planet. The fight against global warming requires reducing emissions. Developed countries have accepted 2050, China 2060, and India 2070 as the deadline for energy transition to net zero emissions by 2070.

  • Developments cutting short the transition time: There are two developments that will cut short the transition time. The European Union’s (EU) Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which will be effective from 2026, will result in penal customs duties on imports unless the carbon tax in exporting countries is hiked to the EU level.
    • The second is increasing pressure to accept the ‘peaking’ of emissions. The G-7 Summit in Hiroshima last year, and Apulia in June 2024, called on the ‘major economies’ to accept the peaking of emissions by 2025. This was a reference to China and India as the EU and the United States have already accepted ‘peaking’.
  • Impact of these challenges: These twin challenges entail much higher costs and require a longer transition time. However, we do not have the luxury of waiting till 2070 as pressure mounts for the ‘peaking’ of emissions.
    • The ‘peaking’ year is an intermediate stage where emissions plateau before declining to the net zero stage.
  • Emissions peaking and dechnology Dependence: China has accepted the goal of peaking by 2030. India cannot remain an outlier indefinitely.
    • At the most, we may have a decade when our emissions will be capped.
    • A more compressed transition schedule means that we have to depend upon existing technologies. Small modular reactors and hydrogen will take more than a decade to become commercially viable.

 

Ramp up generation

  • While targets in climate negotiations may be voluntary, they will be enforced through bilateral tariff measuresand international financing conditions.
  • The peaking level will determine the quantum of energy available for future growth.
  • We need to rapidly ramp up electricity generation to establish our claim to an energy level that is sufficient to sustain future growth before we are constrained to accept the peaking of emissions.
  • China has 200 GW of new coal-based power plants sanctioned or under construction.

 

India's Energy Development and Global Challenges

  • The incoming Donald Trump administration may take the U.S. out of the climate agreements again.
  • Regardless of this, we must take action to achieve a clean environment, for our own sake.
  • However, we cannot ignore India’s development imperative. We need more electricity to replace fossil fuels. India’s electricity consumption is a third of the global average.
  • While developed countries and China have to diversify to clean energy sources, India has to grow and diversify.

 

Energy Demand and Net Zero Emissions (NZE)

  • Reaching net zero emissions (NZE) will entail growth in demand for electricity based on clean sources, as new sectors such as transport and industry are brought under electrification.
  • This increase will be of a much higher order of magnitude than existing trends derived from the power sector alone.
  • What is the minimum quantum of electricity needed to reach NZE? Which is the cheapest generation mix needed to achieve the minimum level?
  • A Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF) Task Force on India’s Energy Transition in a Carbon-Constrained World mandated IIT Bombay to answer these two questions based on mathematical modelling.

 

India's Future Energy Demand

  • It estimated the minimum quantum of demand for electricity as 21,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2070.
  • An International Energy Agency report has pegged India’s energy demand at 3,400 TWh by 2040.
  • Different timelines make a comparison difficult, but it is worth keeping in mind that India’s energy consumption in 2020, according to NITI Aayog data, was 6,200 TWh.
  • Is it realistic to peg its energy demand two decades later at half the level of 2020, the pandemic year, when the economic activities were slow? This is a prescription for energy deficit and slow growth.

 

Energy Consumption and the Digital Economy

  • The Economist has suggested decoupling growth with energy. The West has not followed this paradigm.
  • Will India’s service economy minimize the need for energy? Server banks needed to power the digital economyrequire a huge amount of energy.
  • Generative AI will increase energy demand exponentially. This is why Microsoft and other tech giants are turning to nuclear power, which is the only source of clean, firm power at scale.

 

Cost and land

  • For energy transition, the choice lies between renewables and nuclear, the two forms of energy that are emission-free.
  • But which of the two entails lower cost and land?
  • The current renewables tariff does not fully take into account storage and transmission costs.
  • A paper by the Central Electricity Authority last year acknowledged that the cost of renewables round the clock ranges from ₹4.95 per unit to ₹7.5 a unit (on the assumption of only six hours of storage).
  • This is higher than the tariff for nuclear power at ₹3.80 a unit.
  • The VIF-IIT Bombay study has also shown that the renewable high option will cost the most ($15.5 trillion), while the nuclear high option will cost the least ($11.2 trillion) by 2070.

 

Land Requirements for Renewables vs. Nuclear

  • The VIF report has shown that the renewable high approach will require 4,12,033 square kilometres — double the total surplus land of 2,00,000 sq.km available in India.
  • The nuclear high approach will require 1,83,565 sq.km.
  • The renewable route for the production of green hydrogen will increase the demand for electricity for electrolysis and make land constraints worse.

 

Global Nuclear Power Pledges and India's Challenge

  • On the margins of COP28 in the United Arab Emirates, a group of over 20 countries, including the U.S., France, and Japan, have pledged to triple nuclear power by 2050.
  • Nuclear power already provides 20% of electricity generation in the U.S. and 70% in France.
  • Japan joined this group despite the legacy of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings, and the Fukushima accident.
  • In India’s case, there is a need for a sharper increase, as the share of nuclear power in generation is as low as 3%.

 

Requirements for Ramping Up Nuclear Power in India

  • Ramping up nuclear power requires government support, as resources on this scale cannot be internally generated by the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL).
  • Nuclear power also needs to be given the status of green energy as it is emission-free.
  • Besides operationalising existing joint ventures between the NPCIL and public sector units, public-private partnerships with industries in hard-to-abate sectors should be encouraged given the looming EU deadline for enforcing the CBAM.
  • The bulk of the additional demand for generation will have to be met by larger 700 MW-1,000 MW reactors.

 

The issue of finance

  • At COP29, developed countries committed a paltry $300 billion per year from diverse sources by 2035 against the demand by developing countries for $1.3 trillion.
  • Will this distant goal survive the Trump presidency?
  • Most of this will be non-concessional finance. Many developing countries cannot absorb loans.
  • Multilateral development banks have their statutes, which will require amendment.
  • Green Finance and Its challenges: Green finance from private sources will come only if the tariff is raised, and the health of DISCOMs is restored.
    • The government cannot bear the fiscal burden of energy transition.
    • The public has to be sensitized to steep hikes in tariffs given the investment in creating new-generation assets. This requires political consensus.
  • Carbon Trading and growth concerns: COP29 has finalized the rules for carbon trading. This amounts to rich countries buying the carbon entitlement of poorer countries to cushion their lifestyle changes.
    • If we cannot diversify to clean sources by the peaking year, we will need carbon for our growth rather than a trade-off.

 

Conclusion

The energy transition is a fight for limited carbon space. No major economy is likely to diversify to clean energy before the global carbon budget runs out in the next 10 years. An equitable share in the remaining carbon space is crucial for future growth. We must establish our claim by establishing high-generation capacity. The EU and the U.S. have already claimed entitlement to remaining carbon space by unilaterally establishing their peaking levels. China will keep expanding its claim till 2030.

Editorial 2: Pointing the beacon at India’s undersea warfare capabilities

Context

The approach to enhance the Indian Navy’s undersea capabilities highlights the government’s move to ensure.

 

Introduction

The year 2024 started on a high note for the Indian Navy, with Operation Sankalp expanding from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea to ensure the safety and the security of shipping from piracy and providing assistance to ships targeted by the Houthis. The Navy’s continued response in addressing piracy, hijacking, and drone attacks on international merchant shipping has reinforced its status as a preferred security partner and first responder. In 2024, while several salient episodes marked the Navy’s operational preparedness, an area that witnessed several critical developments was undersea warfare.

 

Pivotal developments

  • INS Arighaat commissioning: One key development was the commissioning of India’s second indigenous nuclear-powered ballistic missile capable submarine (SSBN), INS Arighaat, in August 2024.
  • Nuclear triad, INS Arihant: Adding value to the third leg of India’s nuclear triad — and hence nuclear deterrent value — the SSBN mirrors its predecessor, INS Arihant, in size and propulsion.
  • Indigenous content: The boat, as submarines are known colloquially, has a higher indigenous content than INS Arihant.
  • Sonar, propulsion, acoustic dampening, underwater warfare: The advanced sonar and propulsion systems and upgraded acoustic dampening are a distinctive addition to India’s underwater warfare capabilities.
  • K-4 SLBM test, range: These capabilities were emblematically enhanced by the recent testing of the K-4 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from INS Arighaat, with a range of 3,500 kilometres.
  • Missile test, China strike range: While the firing was successful, the results of the test parameters are awaited. Successful tests and the induction of the missile as a composite weapon package of SSBNs would place most of China under striking range.

 

Project-77 and India’s Underwater Warfare Enhancements

  • Project-77, SSNs approval: About a month after the commissioning of INS Arighaat, the Cabinet Committee on Security cleared the long-pending Project-77 (P-77), giving its final approval to construct two nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) at a cost of ₹40,000 crore.
  • SSN delivery, indigenous content: Delivery of the first SSN is scheduled for 2036-37 and the platform is expected to include over 90% indigenous content.
  • SSNs, Navy, underwater warfare: The addition of the SSNs would enhance the Navy’s underwater warfare capabilities, which essentially includes providing protection to deployed SSBNs.
  • Non-P5 nation, SSBNs, SSNs: With the induction of the SSNs, India would become the only non-P5 nationoperating SSBNs and SSNs.

 

On conventional submarines

  • Nuclear and conventional boats: While nuclear boats open up new vistas of capabilities, conventional boats will always be relevant.
  • Re-induction of non-nuclear boats: In the past, there has been discussion in the U.S. about the re-induction of non-nuclear boats, as not all undersea missions require nuclear power.
  • Project-75, INS Vaghsheer commissioning: In India’s case, Project-75, in collaboration with France, will see the commissioning of the sixth Scorpene boat, INS Vaghsheer soon.
  • Additional conventional boats: The Navy is looking to order three more such boats, which will add the required punch and help fill the void with the decommissioning of older boats: additional boats.
  • Air Independent Propulsion (AIP): The efficacy of non-nuclear boats has increased with the advent of air independent propulsion (AIP).
  • Project 75(I), AIP-enabled boats: Therefore, Project 75(I), which seeks to induct AIP-enabled boats, involves Spain and Germany as contenders to build such boats, and is expected to reach its logical conclusion when the technical and financial evaluations are completed: Project 75(I), AIP-enabled boats, Spain, Germany.
  • Indigenous content in conventional boats: In all cases, indigenous content is expected to increase. For example, the follow-on three Scorpene boats are expected to feature 60% indigenous content: indigenous content, Scorpene boats.
  • Transfer of technology in Project 75(I): In the case of Project 75(I), with the bidders, Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) and Spain’s Navantia, accepting India’s transfer of technology and indigenous content requirements, the first boat is likely to include a minimum of 45% indigenous content, rising to 60% in the sixth boat: Project 75(I), Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, Navantia, transfer of technology, indigenous content.

 

Niche Undersea Naval Technologies

  • Approval for Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs): Another domestic development in niche undersea naval technologies is the approval of building 100-tonne Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) at a cost of ₹2,500 crore: UUVs, approval.
  • Strategic enabler role of UUVs: UUVs would add to India’s undersea capabilities as a low-cost option with a high return on investment: undersea capabilities, low-cost option.
  • Niche technologies as strategic enablers: This project is symbolic of India’s positioning of niche technologies as strategic enablers to address increasingly complex and evolving threats in the maritime space: niche technologies, strategic enablers, maritime space.

 

Some of the hurdles

  • Undersea capabilities with surface and aviation: The approach to enhance the Navy’s undersea capabilities in tandem with surface and aviation elements underscores the importance placed at various levels of the Indian government on ensuring maritime stability and security.
  • Balanced blue water force: This approach would create a balanced blue water force.
  • Budgetary issues and time delays: However, this calls for addressing long-drawn budgetary issues to manage the mismatch between planned acquisitions and modernisation allocations and excessive time delays.
  • Sustained funding and streamlined processes: Sustained funding for projects with long gestation periods, streamlined processes on specifying requirements, shortlisting original equipment manufacturers, and issuance and evaluation of tenders would require focus.
  • Balanced force for strategic and operational needs: A balanced force would ensure fulfilling the Navy’s strategicand operational requirements, which are indispensable for addressing the threats, challenges, and risks emanating from the maritime domain while also taking advantage of the opportunities that arise.

 

Conclusion

These opportunities, especially cooperation and collaboration with strategic partners and other friendly maritime nations, would augur well not only for India’s growth as a maritime nation but also support India’s maritime visions of Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) and a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific.