Editorial 1 : Renewed risks
Introduction:
- In October 2023, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stuck to its 6.5% GDP growth projection for the year, with risks from geopolitical tensions, economic fragmentation, volatile financial markets and an uneven monsoon, evenly balanced out by strengthening domestic demand.
New uncertainties
- There was a belief that a period of heightened uncertainties was ebbing but as the central bank Governor signalled last Friday, new uncertainties have emerged over the fortnight since.
- The Israel-Hamas conflict that erupted a day after the monetary policy review has widened, and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has flagged worries about implications on global food, fuel and fertiliser supplies.
- Given India’s dependence on fuel and fertiliser imports, disruptions or price spikes could hurt the macroeconomic framework, even if the government refrains from passing on higher prices to consumers and farmers in the election season.
- The RBI chief also pointed to rising U.S. bond yields, which hit a 16-year high of 5% this week, mixed data points and signals from central banks around the world, as the new unknowns — even as known unknowns such as financial market turmoil — have got more pronounced. A glimpse of this anxiety was visible this week, with the sharpest selloff on Indian bourses since July.
Finance ministry outlooks:
- There is no certainty that the RBI would still uphold its ‘evenly balanced’ outlook towards the risks to growth. However, the Finance Ministry, while acknowledging that global uncertainties have compounded, seems largely sanguine for now in its outlook for the economy.
- Its monthly economic review released on Monday asserts that growth “remains on track”, inflation is eating after a “temporary '' seasonal surge in July August, consumption demand is strengthening and investment demand is “also firming up”.
- The weak foreign trade picture is expected to recover and industrial job creation prospects are high for the next two quarters, while higher demand for housing and vehicle loans reflects bolstered confidence levels in households, it added.
- India’s macro fundamentals may well hold up through the latest global storm, but the government would do well to drill a little deeper into consumption and hiring trends. The last quarter has seen a sharp slump in small car sales, consumer nondurables producers reporting weak rural demand and IT firms scaling down growth and hiring hopes.
Conclusion:
- There is still much to be done to correct an uneven recovery, which would eventually hamper a broader investment revival.
Editorial 2 : Why are the China-Bhutan boundary talks significant?
Context:
- China and Bhutan held their 25th round of boundary talks in Beijing and signed a Cooperation Agreement on the “Responsibilities and Functions of the Joint Technical Team (JTT) on the Delimitation and Demarcation of the Bhutan-China Boundary.”
Significance of the agreement:
- This advances their 3-Step Roadmap initiated in 2021 for border resolution, building on the positive momentum since their last talks in 2016. The Boundary talks between Bhutan and China were held after a gap of 7 years and indicate significant progress has been made.
- Bhutan and the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) share a contiguous border to Bhutan’s north and west.
- Since 1984, Bhutan and China had held 24 rounds of talks to resolve the disputes until 2016, but the 25th round appeared to have been held up after the Doklam Standoff between Indian and Chinese armies in 2017, and then the COVID19 pandemic in 2019-21.
- However, the two sides used the pause to hold talks at other levels in rapid succession, especially after China threatened to open a new front for a border dispute to Bhutan’s east.
The 3 Step roadmap
- Bhutan and China don't have diplomatic ties, as Bhutan has traditionally avoided diplomatic relations with all the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) permanent members (P5).
- The 3-Step Roadmap aims to draw a line clearly delineating Bhutanese and Chinese territory for the first time. It involves 3 subsequent phases:
- Agreeing to the border “on the table”
- Visiting the sites on the ground
- Formally demarcating the boundary
Significance for India:
- Given the breakdown in its ties with China over the standoff at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) from 2020 post-Galwan Valley clash, any hint of closer ties between China and one of its closest neighbours is a cause for worry for India.
- More specifically, New Delhi is watching the demarcation discussions over Doklam, as amongst the proposals China has placed on the table is an agreement to “swap” areas in Doklam under Bhutanese control with areas in Jakarlung and Pasamlung which China claims.
- Doklam trijunction cuts very close to India’s Siliguri corridor, a narrow area that connects the North Eastern States to the rest of India. India would not like to see China gain access to any area closer to it.
- Since the Doklam standoff in 2017, China has doubled down on its control of the Doklam plateau, and according to a recent Pentagon report, has continued to build “underground storage facilities, new roads, and new villages in disputed areas in neighbouring Bhutan,” erasing many of the strategic gains that New Delhi had hoped for after China agreed to step back from the standoff point in 2017.
- Finally, India’s worry is over China’s demand for full diplomatic relations with Bhutan, and opening an Embassy in Thimphu. Given India’s challenges with Chinese projects and funding in other neighbouring countries including Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives, any Chinese presence in a small country like Bhutan would be problematic.
Conclusion:
- However, Bhutan’s leadership has thus far said that all decisions would consider India’s interests and that it has always consulted India on issues of concern.