Editorial 1: Mahalanobis in the era of Big Data and AI
Introduction
- Professor P.C. Mahalanobis, who introduced statistics to India, is a scientist whose absence is felt dearly even today. Mahalanobis’s lifelong courtship with statistics, his unwavering and fearless leadership to advance a statistics and survey culture in India, the founding of the Indian Statistical Institute — “a mighty monument of his handicraft” — and his nurturing of a generation of outstanding academicians have all left behind an enduring legacy.
The age of Big Data
- Over the past 20 years, there has been a global shift in both the nature of data and statistics.
- With the advent of the Internet and virtually everything confined to the Internet of Things, there has been a flood of data, most of it junk.
- We now have much more data than what available technology can leverage. This is widely perceived as the era of Big Data.
- Another significant yet related issue is how artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming our lives and lifestyles.
- The state of society is precarious. One can wonder how Mahalanobis, a statistical doyen and a key figure in the early development of Indian democracy, would have responded to the Big Data-related craziness and the AI-driven revolution.
- Historically, data often appears to be Big when the available technology at that time fails to analyse it.
- Mahalanobis also encountered a Big Data problem when his large-scale surveys yielded lots of data that needed to be looked into for effective planning.
- To handle tons of data and tackle the complex mathematical calculations, Mahalanobis persuaded the government and succeeded in procuring the first two digital computers of the country (and South Asia, too) at his Indian Statistical Institute, in 1956 and 1958, and thus ushered in the age of computers in India.
Problems during COVID-19
- Mahalanobis was “a physicist by training, a statistician by instinct and an economist by conviction”. He had an uncanny knack for embracing technology for human welfare, perhaps as a result of his background in physics.
- Thus, one may safely perceive that Mahalanobis would have embraced the power of AI in enhancing human productivity, such as Big Data analyses, and perhaps in a way that is far more effective than how AI is currently applied to that goal.
- One recent Big Data foible, for instance, involved numerous contradictory projections during the COVID-19 era.
- One could argue that if Mahalanobis was alive today, the country’s COVID-19 response could have been much stronger.
- If he was in the lead, our data might be beyond question, and the analyses might be far more accurate.
- And India’s “Plan Man” could be the best person for planning to build optimal health-related infrastructures for combating future disasters.
AI regulation
- Around seven decades ago, from the perspective of the newly independent nation, planning — with the aid of extensive technocratic exercises with democratic participation — moved from the realm of politics, primarily due to Mahalanobis. Now, we are at the crossroads.
- India’s upcoming census will be a digital exercise. The dynamics of other surveys are also bound to change in the new normal setup. That is how statistics is evolving. We would miss the leadership of an expert such as Mahalanobis from this changed statistical perspective.
Conclusion
- As AI is threatening to replace millions of jobs without creating alternatives and is also aiding in spreading disinformation, there is a substantial global attempt to clip its wings.
Editorial 2: Keep it simple
Context
- EPFO must simplify process for members to avail higher pension
Background
- The move by the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) to extend the deadline, for a third time, for employees and pensioners to exercise the joint option for higher pension is of limited relief, as several issues remain unresolved.
- As the entire process is an outcome of the Supreme Court judgment of November 2022 on the validity of amendments made in 2014 to the Employees’ Pension Scheme (EPS), the matter pertains to two categories of applicants — those who retired from service prior to September 1, 2014, and those who left service after the date and those who are still in service.
- After all, it is too early to indicate that higher pension disbursal will begin this financial year, even if applicants meet all the terms and conditions.
- The Union Labour and Employment Ministry, which oversees the EPFO, told the standing parliamentary committee concerned early this year that the implications of the Court’s verdict on the EPS had not been factored in, while preparing the Budget estimates for 2023-24.
Employees' Pension Scheme
- The EPS, administered by the EPFO, came into being in 1995.
- The pension fund was to comprise a deposit of 8.33% of the employers’ contribution towards the PF corpus.
- It makes provisions for pensions for the employees in the organized sector after retirement at the age of 58 years.
- Employees who are members of EPF automatically become members of EPS.
- Both employer and employee contribute 12% of employee’s monthly salary (basic wages plus dearness allowance) to the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) scheme.
- EPF scheme is mandatory for employees who draw a basic wage of Rs. 15,000 per month.
- Of the employer's share of 12 %, 8.33 % is diverted towards the EPS.
- Central Govt. also contributes 1.16% of employees’ monthly salary.
The concerns
- The most important issue of concern is the lack of clarity on the amount pension members and pensioners will receive, should their applications be accepted.
- Their anxiety is understandable as they — particularly those still in service — give their consent to transfer a substantial portion of their PF savings to the Pension Fund.
- Though pensioners will have to make payments separately to be considered eligible for higher pension, they would also be keen to know how much pension they would get.
- In the case of the pre-2014 retirees, it appears that the PF authorities have not yet officially commenced communication on the status of their applications, even though, under the rules, most of these may not stand the test of scrutiny.
- Employers have the Herculean task of producing physical records for every applicant. As not all establishments will have these records, the sensible option for the EPFO would be to share its database with employers for the limited purpose of establishing applicant authenticity.
- The situation is more complicated for establishments that are no longer in existence — there appears to be no way out for their employees and pensioners to apply for higher pension.
Way forward
- Given that the spirit of the judgment is to provide a better social security net, the Union Ministry and the EPFO should be proactive in simplifying the process and ensuring that every deserving person gets the benefit.