Editorial 1:Growth matrix

Context

Economic outlook is evenly poised but reforms need acceleration.

Introduction

The first official gauge of the economy’s performance so far in 2024-25 pegs real GDP growth at 6.7% between April and June, a five-quarter low and below the central bank’s projection. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which expects a 7.2% GDP growth through 2024-25 following last year’s 8.2% surge, had revised its estimate for Q1 from 7.2% to 7.1%, earlier this month.

The Actuals of Indian Economy

• Present economic scenario: Is underwhelming and mark a clear cooling in the economic momentum, although some base effects are in play.
• Gross Value Added (GVA) Growth: In the economy came in higher at 6.8%, after a year of widening divergences with the GDP print.
• Monsoonal expectations: Starting fiscal year, major hopes hinged on a normal monsoon boosting farm sector output and easing inflation, which could lift the weak rural demand and private consumption witnessed last year.
• Demand and Public spending parameters: Higher demand would bolster private firms’ propensity to invest in new capacities, and ease the pressure on public spending to prop up growth.
• Boosting Capital Expenditure: That the government would still ramp up capital expenditure by 17% to ₹11.11 lakh crore this year.
• Impact of Elections on economy: The stretched general election has sharply scuppered public capex, and the government will need to redouble efforts to meet its spending goals.
• Rise in private consumption: The good news is that private consumption spends bounced to a six-quarter peak of 7.4%, partly thanks to easing headline inflation.
• Worrying food prices: As the food prices remain elevated.

Way Forward

A better monsoon may raise some positive expecations. Farm GVA growth has moved up to a four-quarter high of 2% but the next few weeks will determine whether the sector rebounds in earnest (and food inflation cools). Projections of above normal downpours in September may well affect standing kharif crops. This is a key monitorable for the RBI, whose independent monetary policy panel members have flagged a 1% GDP growth loss this year and next, if interest rate cuts are delayed.

Conclusion

India may still grow 6.5% to 7% this year, but most expect growth to slip to 6.5% in 2025-26, with the medium-term potential hovering around that number. This is too slow for comfort. As top IMF official Gita Gopinath pointed out recently, policymakers need to urgently pursue meaningful reforms across all aspects of the economy, and improve the efficiency of its institutions and the judiciary. This is critical to lift its growth potential and fulfil hopes of creating gainful employment for its young, fast enough for India’s demographics to yield a dividend.

Editorial 2:Hateful, baleful

Context

Assam CM is transgressing his oath by making hateful remarks against Muslims.

Introduction

Hate speech, especially by elected authorities and targeting a specific community, has been repeatedly flagged as a possible trigger for ethnic conflagrations and atrocities that could have catastrophic consequences. Politicians in India are well aware of this but this does not deter the most cynical among them from using hate speech to further a polarising agenda.

Instances of Hate Speeches in Assam

• Chief Ministers speech: Himanta Biswa Sarma continues to revel in making communally sensitive remarks, targeting the State’s minority communities.
• Communal remarks by CM:  That he would take sides against “Miya Muslims” — a discriminatory euphemism for the minority Bengali Muslim community — and would not let them “go to Upper Assam”.
• Law and Order situation triggering communal remarks: These remarks were in the context of a debate on the law and order situation after a gangrape of a minor in Dhing.
• Election Speech: CM used rabidly communal language to target Muslims, with nary a response from the Election Commission of India. He even used, “Islamophobia is real for many of us [Hindus]”.
• Violation of the constitutional oath: He took as the Chief Minister — that he will bear true faith and allegiance to India’s secular Constitution.

Concerns towards Hate speech

• Need for condemnation: For explicitly saying that he will side against a particular community.
• Instigating ethnic Violence: By amplifying demands by groups that have threatened an entire community to leave “Upper Assam” and suggesting that the minority community does not have the right to free movement, he is furthering hate in a State which has been affected by ethnic violence.
• Impact of ethnic violence on poor: From violent anti-immigrant agitations to militancy and a flawed process of identifying “foreigners” that has brought misery to the poor.

Way Forward

Instead of using cynical ploy of fostering division in order to reap the benefits out of the politics of hate the Chief Minister needs to find ways of reconciliation, all-round harmony and peace. As actions in nearby Myanmar and the plight of the Rohingya show, repeated use of hate speech to characterise a minority community and the amplification of communalism have disastrous consequences.

Conclusion

The Union government should reprimanded people for utterances of targeting sections such as farmers, and Mr. Sarma for using hate speech against Muslims. The government needs to be serious about improving the lot of the Assamese people — as the State has among the poorest HDI indicators in the country — it has to put an end to hate speech as a communally charged environment militates against all-round development.