Topic 1: Viksit must be inclusive
Introduction: It is now confirmed that 2023 (1.18 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrialisation period) was the warmest year on record since 1850 as per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the US. Many scientists are predicting that 2024 could be even worse. In such a scenario could India farmer produce enough for the Viksit Bharat @2047.
The projection of 2047 by analysing previous records of India
- Although 2047 is still 23 years away, and it is very difficult to arrive at such long-term projections, a rough idea can be obtained by looking at what happened since reforms began in 1991 and continued, in one way or the other, under various governments.
- But more interesting would be to see the growth story in the last 10 years under the Narendra Modi government since 2014 and compare it with the 10 years of the Manmohan Singh government.
- Given that the incumbent government feels very confident of coming back to office with a thumping majority, it is likely to continue its policies of the last 10 years, or may even accelerate to realise its aspiration of a Viksit Bharat by 2047.
Growth of agri-GDP as vis-à-vis overall GDP from 1991
- The infographic gives average annual growth rates (AAGR) of overall GDP and agri-GDP (2011-12 base, revised series).
- While the long-term growth rate from 1991-92 to 2023-24 (second advance estimate) of overall GDP is 6.1 per cent, for agri-GDP it is 3.3 per cent.
- However, during the last 10 years of the Modi government, overall GDP has grown only by 5.9 per cent (compared to 6.8 per cent during Manmohan Singh’s period) and agriculture growth has been 3.6 per cent (compared to 3.5 per cent during the Manmohan Singh period).
- There is not much of a difference between the two governments with respect to agri-GDP growth.
Significance of agri-growth in Viksit Bharat dream
- Agriculture is critical for India’s development as it still engages about 45 per cent of the working population (2022-23, PLFS data).
- So, if Viksit Bharat has to be an inclusive Bharat, it must develop its agriculture to its full potential.
- Productivity needs to rise, water consumption needs to be reduced, groundwater needs to be re-charged, soil degradation needs to be arrested, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture need to be curtailed.
- Business as usual, with the current set of policies, is not likely to deliver this dream of inclusive Viksit Bharat by 2047.
- If our growth rates of overall GDP and agri-GDP keep growing as they have during the last 20 years, or even last 10 years, the likely chances are that by 2047, agriculture’s share in overall GDP may drop to just 7-8 per cent but it may still be saddled with more than 30 per cent of the country’s workforce.
- More people need to move out of agriculture to higher productivity jobs with better skills.
- Therefore, the skill formation of rural people for rapidly growing and urbanising India has to be a top priority.
- Otherwise, Viksit Bharat will be Viksit only for the top 25 per cent population, while the remaining may remain stuck in the low-medium income category.
The future agri-growth rate
- The expected overall GDP growth of 7.6 per cent in 2023-24 is a good foundation to build on.
- The Ministry of Finance and RBI both feel upbeat and expect the final numbers of this year may even be higher.
- At the same time agri-GDP growth rate fell to 0.7 percent (second advance estimate).
- Agriculture growth dropped to this low level (0.7 per cent) primarily because of unseasonal rains during the last kharif season.
- And there are no positive signals that the situation will improve.
- If there are any signals, the risks of extreme weather events are going to increase, as humanity is falling far behind in arresting global warming.
- India in general and agriculture in particular is not ready for climate change.
A successive failure of agriculture can halt the growth momentum of India
- Indian agriculture in Viksit Bharat cannot be on a weak and risky wicket.
- Two years of successive droughts can spoil the party of Viksit Bharat.
- Even without a drought, RBI has been fighting almost this entire year to control food inflation.
- GoI has put export controls, stocking limits on traders, suspended futures trading in many agri-commodities, and unloaded wheat and rice at prices below their economic costs.
- These are all signs of panic, and policy tools of the 1960s, when India was living from “ship to mouth”.
- This policy toolbox cannot be carried on in Viksit Bharat.
What should be policy for agriculture for Viksit Bharat
- Rationalise food and fertiliser subsidies, and put the savings to augment agri-R&D, agri-innovations, agri-extension, soil and water recharge through check dams and watersheds, promoting water saving techniques in agriculture (drip and sprinklers, fertigation, protected cultivation, etc).
- More importantly, Indian agriculture has to move to high-value agriculture (poultry, fishery, dairy, fruits and vegetables) with a value chain approach, from plate to plough, that is, a demand-driven system.
- For that, we need to think of policies and institutions through which our farmers can access pan-India markets, and even export markets on a regular basis.
- Be it through cooperatives or farmer producer organisations (FPOs) on digital commerce (E-NAM, ONDC type) or through contract farming with large processors, retailers, and exporters.
- Develop and promote futures trading in agriculture.
Conclusion: With agriculture on a weak wicket, the government needs to think of policies and institutions to enable farmers to access domestic and global markets.
Topic 2 : Pointers from wheat
Introduction: With wheat stocks in government godowns, at 9.7 million tonnes on March 1, the lowest in seven years for this date, all eyes are on the crop about to be marketed. Although this year’s bumper production will fill the shortfall, a larger question of the impact of climate change on farm production is the cause of concern.
The harvest of wheat in 2024
- For now, a bumper harvest seems to be in the offing, at least in Punjab, Haryana, UP and Bihar.
- Unlike in 2022 and 2023, when the crop suffered yield losses due to temperature spikes and unseasonal heavy rains respectively during the final grain formation and filling stage, no such “Ides of March” weather events have been reported from this major wheat belt.
- March temperatures ruling near normal this time and three-fourths of the grain-filling completed augurs well for the crop across the Indo-Gangetic plains.
- The problem, if any, is with the wheat in central India — MP, Gujarat and Maharashtra — that has already been, or is close to being, harvested.
- And even there, it’s not March but November-December temperatures that may have played spoiler.
The susceptibility of wheat to climate change
- The above-mentioned fact highlights how susceptible wheat — and agriculture itself — has become to climate change.
- In this case, it isn’t just terminal heat stress, leading to premature ripening and drying of the crop in its final growth phase.
- It is also about relatively warm temperatures at the time of sowing and initial vegetative growth period, resulting in fewer tillers being formed and premature flowering.
- Climate change, thus, manifests itself both in the early onset of summer and the delayed setting in of winter.
- If the 2021-22 wheat in northwest and north India was affected by the former, the crop this time in central India has apparently taken a hit from the latter.
- To the extent the lower yields from central India are offset by better-than-average production in the Indo-Gangetic plains, the country can still end up harvesting more wheat than in 2021-22 and 2022-23.
- Whether that is so will be known in a month’s time.
- Thankfully, global wheat prices are currently at their lowest in four years, making imports feasible.
- The government should enable it by doing away with the 40 per cent customs duty.
A need for Green Revolution 2.0
- From a medium- to long-term perspective, India has to invest more in breeding for climate change.
- The Green Revolution strategy essentially relied on expansion of irrigation and developing crop varieties responsive to high fertiliser application.
- Green Revolution 2.0’s focus must be on input use efficiency — producing more from the same or even less quantity of water, nutrients and energy — and building climate resilience through breeding of drought-resistant and heat-tolerant varieties.
- This would entail screening germplasm and identifying genes in plants responsible for the desirable traits.
Conclusion: India needs to feed and sustain a huge population. It also needs to draw a large section of people from poverty. In that effort, agriculture plays a significant role. For sustainable agriculture growth, a Green Revolution 2.0 is necessary. Green Revolution 2.0's focus must be on input use efficiency and building climate resilience through the breeding of drought-resistant and heat-tolerant varieties.