Editorial 1 : Trust and the machine
Introduction: Most recently, allegations of malpractice were raised ahead of the counting of votes in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, when a video emerged of officials sorting ballot papers from the strongroom in Balaghat.
What is EVM?
- Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) have been used in Indian elections since 1998.
- They are used to record and count votes electronically, and are considered to be more efficient and accurate than traditional paper ballots.
- EVMs consist of two units: a control unit and a balloting unit.
- The control unit is kept with the presiding officer, and the balloting unit is kept in the voting compartment.
- When a voter casts their vote, they press the button next to the name of their chosen candidate.
- The vote is then recorded electronically in the control unit.
- EVMs are also equipped with a Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT) machine.
- The VVPAT machine prints a slip of paper that shows the voter which candidate they have voted for.
- The slip is then dropped into a transparent container, where it can be seen by the voter.
- This allows voters to verify that their vote has been recorded correctly.
How to increase voters’ trust on EVMs?
ECI needs to be more principled and open-minded, and not resort to mere forceful proclamations that all is well. The key measures that can be implemented:
- Enhanced Transparency and Auditability:
- Implement mandatory risk-limiting audits (RLAs) for all elections. RLAs involve randomly selecting a small percentage of EVMs and manually comparing their results with the corresponding VVPAT slips to detect any discrepancies.
- Encourage open-source software development for EVMs to allow independent scrutiny and verification of the code.
- Strengthening Physical Security:
- Implement comprehensive chain-of-custody procedures to track the movement of EVMs from storage to polling stations and back, ensuring their integrity throughout the process.
- Enhance physical security measures at storage facilities and during transportation to prevent unauthorized access or tampering.
- Utilize tamper-evident seals and security features to detect any unauthorized modifications to EVMs.
- Public Awareness and Education:
- Conduct regular public awareness campaigns to educate voters about the functioning of EVMs and VVPATs, dispelling misconceptions and building trust in the system.
- Provide accessible and comprehensive training to election officials on EVM handling, security protocols, and troubleshooting procedures.
- Continuous Research and Development:
- Invest in ongoing research and development to enhance EVM security, exploring advanced encryption techniques, tamper-proof hardware components, and robust software solutions.
- Collaborate with international election experts and organizations to share best practices and adopt innovative security measures.
- Addressing Concerns and Addressing Allegations:
- Establish a transparent and responsive mechanism to address concerns raised by political parties or voters regarding EVM irregularities.
- Conduct thorough investigations into any allegations of tampering or manipulation, ensuring due process and accountability.
Way forward (recommendations of Citizens’ Commission on Elections headed by Retd. Justice Lokur)
- A standard way to make an electronic voting process software independent, at least approximately, is to use VVPATs — provided, of course, they are counted.
- Such dual-voting protocols have three essential requirements — VVPATs should be truly voter-verified, electronic and VVPAT tallies should be cross-checked against each other, and there needs to be a definite rule to break a tie if the cross-check fails.
- The ECI’s current VVPAT system is not truly voter-verified because it does not provide the necessary agency to a voter, and there is no principled method for dispute resolution.
- The correct VVPAT protocol would be to allow a voter to approve the VVPAT slip before the vote is finally cast, and to provide an option to cancel her vote if a discrepancy is noticed.
- The only way to do so, without trusting machines and buttons, is to allow the voter to obtain the VVPAT slip and cast it in a box herself.
- There are standard ways to mitigate the fear that a voter may cast a bogus slip and try to discredit the election.
- Finally, there are standard and well-established methods called Risk-Limiting Audit (RLA) for cross-checking the electronic tally with VVPAT counts.
- The current stipulation of auditing five EVMs per assembly constituency is without any statistical basis.
- RLA verifies, with high confidence, that the declared outcome matches the one that would have been determined with a full manual count of the VVPATs.
- RLA is also efficient, and usually requires far less than full count unless the margins are really small.
- If required, independent systems of mechanised sorting and counting may also be set up. In any case, efficiency cannot possibly be privileged over correctness.
Conclusion: ECI’s current voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) system is not truly voter-verified. The correct protocol would be to allow a voter to approve the VVPAT slip before the vote is finally cast, and provide an option to cancel.
Editorial 2 : Surprise on upside
Introduction: India’s economy grew at a robust 7.6 per cent in the second quarter (July-September) of the year, surpassing the most optimistic expectations.
What was the expectation with Indian economy?
- Most economists had pegged growth at between 6.5-7 per cent.
- In fact, even the Reserve Bank of India had projected the economy to grow at 6.5 per cent in its October monetary policy committee meeting.
How sectors of Indian economy grew?
- The agricultural sector has fared poorly. Growth has slipped from 3.5 per cent in the first quarter to 1.2 per cent in the second quarter.
- That the outlook for the sector isn’t promising for the second half of the year as well will have implications for rural demand.
- Two, the industrial sector (including construction) has fared much better. It grew at 13.2 per cent in the second quarter, up from 5.5 per cent in the first quarter, buoyed by a favourable base effect, and healthy growth in manufacturing.
- The manufacturing sector grew by 13.9 per cent, up from 4.7 per cent.
- As per a report by economists at Bank of Baroda, even as sales growth was subdued, corporate profitability increased in the second quarter, in part due to lower commodity prices.
- Construction has also fared well, growing by 13.3 per cent. Alongside, data released on Thursday showed that the index of eight core infrastructure sectors (including steel, cement and electricity, among others) grew on average at 10.5 per cent during July-October, up from 6.1 per cent during April-June.
- Three, the services sector has slowed down.
- It grew by 5.8 per cent in the second quarter, down from 10.3 per cent in the first quarter, dragged down by sluggish performance of trade, hotels, transport and communication and the financial, real estate and professional services sectors.
- Private consumption has slowed down sharply from 6 per cent to 3.1 per cent, indicating continued weakness in segments of the population.
- On the other hand, investment activity continued to be healthy, growing by 11 per cent in the second quarter.
- Government spending also remains robust.
- In fact, as per India Ratings and Research, the combined capex of the central government and 26 state governments grew by 26.7 per cent in the second quarter.
The growth prospectus in second half
- The overall economic momentum in the country is, however, expected to slow down in the second half of the year, in part, due to the possibility of a subpar performance in agriculture, tighter financial conditions, and the likelihood of government spending slowing towards the end of the year as the general elections approach.
- Even the RBI’s earlier projections had pointed towards economic momentum slowing down in the third and fourth quarters.
Conclusion: India’s GDP upswing shows a silver cloud with dark lining. The momentum of growth will slow down in second half. India must watch the agriculture sector, which is slowing down whole GDP growth rate in second half.