Editorial 1 : The La Nina Shadow
Context: The La Nina and North India’s pollution
Introduction: Delayed onset of La Niña and the late retreat of the monsoon have made it very likely that a large part of north India will face significant pollution-related challenges in the early winter months.
Link between Climate change, La Niña and Air quality
- La Niña is typically linked to stronger monsoons in India.
- But despite La Nina’s late onset, the country has experienced good rainfall.
- Air pollution is no longer a local emission-centric and a region-specific problem.
- The influence of large-scale atmospheric circulations such as ENSO, changes in wind patterns and the behaviour of pollutants over long distances require greater attention.
- This dynamic introduces complexities in how emissions from neighbouring regions, even different countries, contribute to local air quality.
Factors and their role in shaping Air Quality
- Delay in the monsoon’s retreat
- slower withdrawal of the monsoon typically leads to extended periods of high humidity and calm winds.
- This, combined with the anti-cyclonic circulation in the post-monsoon period, results in reduced atmospheric mixing and dispersion of pollutants.
- This will likely result in elevated levels of PM2.5 and PM10 in the pre-winter period, with local emissions and pollutants from surrounding areas remaining trapped near the surface.
- Delayed onset of La Niña
- La Niña brings stronger winds and more dynamic atmospheric circulation, which helps disperse pollutants in northern India.
- The neutral conditions will, contribute to stagnant surface winds, exacerbating the pollution problem in northern India in autumn and early winter.
- Stubble burning
- Given the dominance of north-north-westerly winds at 850-900 mb, in the absence of La Niña conditions, stubble burning in Punjab and Haryana is likely to have a significant impact in undermining Delhi’s air quality.
La Nina predicted for December-January
- World Meteorological Organisation predicts 55 per cent chance for La Niña by December.
- In this case, the stronger winds, feeble westerly disturbances and fewer clouds may reduce the accumulation of pollutants and improve the air quality slightly in the later part of winter.
- La Nina could also bring a longer and more severe winter. This will contribute to the lowering of the inversion layer, the part of the atmosphere that traps pollutants and limit vertical mixing.
- This could restrict the benefit from the stronger winds.
- Therefore, even though air quality might improve relative to early winter the situation will remain problematic in Delhi and parts of north India.
- Had La Niña settled in by July, as initially predicted, it could have worsened the winter air of the country’s peninsular region by at least 20%, especially concerning PM 2.5 pollution.
- At the same time, an early onset of La Niña could have led to improvements in the northern zone.
Climate Change and Air Pollution
- Unusual occurrences in extreme air pollution are linked to climate change.
- In a warming world, other than local anthropogenic emissions, rapidly changing climate is an additional uncertainty that requires more rigorous mitigation efforts.
Way Forward
- There is a need to focus on larger airsheds rather than concentrating on individual cities.
- It’s time to rethink air quality strategies by scientifically integrating broader factors and prioritising health-centric measures.
Editorial 2 : A war without Victors
Context: With Nasrallah’s killing, Israel steps deeper into the war without victors
Recent Developments
- Israel remotely triggered explosions of hundreds of communication devices used by Hezbollah cadres and civilians in Lebanon leading to several deaths.
- Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an airstrike in southern Beirut by Israeli forces.
- The ceasefire talks on Gaza seem stuck, while another war between Israel and Lebanon appears possible.
- The series of tactical wins for Israel concerning Hezbollah is unlikely to end the cycle of violence between Israel and the Iran-led Axis of Resistance.
Many Fronts of the Conflict
- Israeli forces have started operations in parts of the West Bank too.
- Yemen-based Houthis have attacked commercial vessels in the Red Sea, despite US-led reactive and pre-emptive strikes on land and sea-based resources of the Houthis.
- In mid-September Houthis fired a hypersonic missile from 2,000 km away that hit Tel Aviv.
- Northern front bordering Lebanon has become a big worry for Israel.
Several Unknowns in the Conflict
- Hezbollah’s strength was always rated to be much more than that of Hamas and a direct war with Hezbollah could bleed Israel.
- Hezbollah is known to be a highly organised group and may throw up an ideologue as a new undeclared leader, while operational commanders may remain under the radar to avoid being targeted.
- The new crop of younger operational commanders of Hezbollah may turn out to be more passionate about revenge and bigger risk-takers.
- The war in Gaza could continue up until the US elections to gauge the level of support Israel could expect from the new president.
Troop Deployment
- The deployment of ground troops in southern Lebanon would present serious force protection issues for Israel.
- Apart from Gaza and the West Bank, Israeli troops could also get bogged down on Lebanese soil.
Iran’s Strategic Patience
- Iran is holding fire following the killing of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran a day after the inauguration of the Iranian President in July, which signals strategic patience.
- US and Iran have indirectly coordinated their words and moves since October 7 to avoid going to war with each other, with Iran helping prevent attacks on US bases and personnel across Syria and Iraq.
- The region has not polarised along Shia-Sunni lines, whereby Sunni Palestinians are being supported by Shia Iran and all its Shia allies, Houthis, Hezbollah and groups across Iraq and Syria.
- Therefore, Sunni Arab States are no longer able to participate in any Israel-led informal alliance against Iran and its allies.
Ramifications for Israel
- The security risk for Israel itself has increased since the killing of Nasrallah.
- Moody’s has degraded Israel’s credit rating second time in the war, from A2 to Baa1, citing significantly intensified geopolitical risk.
Conclusion: West Asia has entered a much more dangerous escalatory phase where no single actor can restore peace.