Editorial 1: A plan for the winter crop
Recent context:
- Recently, The Indian monsoon (June to September) has ended with a 5.6 per cent deficit compared to the long-period average (LPA). This is a notch lower than the normal rainfall 96 to 104 per cent of the LPA
The effect of monsoon over major cropping pattern of this year
- Despite the wide deviation in its temporal spread, especially in August — the driest since 1901 the area planted under paddy and sugarcane is higher by 1.9 per cent and 7.64 per cent respectively, compared to last year.
- But the area under pulses is significantly down, by 4.2 per cent, especially arhar (tur) which has seen a 4.9 per cent fall in cultivated area. It may result into inflation in tur.
- The only way to tame tur price inflation seems to be a million tonne of imports from African countries and Myanmar.
The challenges ahead with winter crops and addressing them
- The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (MoA&FW) organised the Rabi Conference on September 26 and it was assured that the country has ample fertilser stocks to take care of the demand of the rabi season.
- Wheat is the main rabi crop, and it is susceptible to a heat wave. In order to counter it, ICAR organisation has released numerous heat-resistant wheat varieties, which are likely to cover roughly 60 per cent of the sown area — up from 45 per cent last year.
- In the last nine years, India’s agri-research system has released 2,200 varieties of different crops, of which 1,800 are climate resilient. Going by these assurances, another “record” rabi crop is in the offing
Fluctuation in price of wheat crops and factors effecting it
- In 2022, wheat procurement plummeted to less than 19MT, a drop of more than 50 per cent from the previous year. As a result, retail prices of wheat came under pressure.
- GoI put an export ban on wheat on May 13, 2022, fearing that the Russia-Ukraine war could escalate prices. Wheat inflation, less than 10 per cent in May, climbed to 15.7 per cent in August.
- When the GoI banned atta exports, the inflation did not stop there. It kept going up and in December 2022, it climbed to 22 per cent and further to 25 per cent in January 2023.
- The wholesale wheat prices in mandis are hovering around Rs 2,700/quintal, while the minimum support price (MSP) for the coming marketing season of wheat is Rs 2,125/quintal.
- The FCI has unloaded its stocks at prices way below its economic cost, fearing that it would not be able to procure enough for the public distribution system (PDS.
- Offloading 3.4 MT in February-March ensured that market prices were down to MSP, and FCI was able to procure about 26 MT of wheat.
- The same with rice , FCI’s economic cost of rice is around Rs 3,700/quintal, but it is selling rice at below Rs 3,000/quintal
- This is a transfer of resources from producers to consumers and indicates a typical pro-consumer bias in the policy framework.
Does pro-consumer bias policy bring goodness for farmers?
- Under the National food security Act, when more than 800 million people already get free wheat or rice (5kg/person/month) under the PDS, then pro consumer biased policy is beneficial more to urban class more than the farmers who are already getting benefit under NFSA.
- Therefore, it does not incentivise the farmers to produce more. This is what economists Ann Krueger, Maurice Schiff and Alberto Valdes called the “plundering of agriculture” in their classic work, Political economy of agricultural prices.
There is need for better assessment and adoption of technology for enhancing the income of farmers:
- There is need for better and more accurate estimates of production and monitoring the prices that farmers get.
- Adoption of technology will further result into better assessment and rise in production of crops. Therefore, there is need to upgrade patwari-based production estimate system to one that is based on high technology.
- This will help settle crop insurance claims, and also give enough lead time to the government to import in time if there is likely to be a shortfall.
Conclusion:
- Therefore, there is need for better technology and better policies to ensure farmers get their due. Only then India can emerge as a powerhouse in agriculture. Abrupt export bans/stocking limits are not the best way forward.
Editorial 2: Bad air plan
Recent Context:
- Recently, On Sunday, the Delhi government began implementation of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) to check the city’s notorious winter pollution.
- Like the past seven years, the plan is a combination of preventive and punitive measures. The plan indicates a welcome awareness of the need to collaborate with Punjab and Haryana to check stubble burning.
What is the Graded Response Action Plan?
- GRAP is a set of emergency measures that kick in to prevent further deterioration of air quality once it reaches a certain threshold.
- Stage 1 of GRAP is activated when the AQI is in the ‘poor’ category (201 to 300), and On Wednesday, for instance, the AQI in Delhi was 211.
- The second, third and fourth stages will be activated three days ahead of the AQI reaching the ‘very poor’ category (301 to 400), ‘severe’ category (401 to 450) and ‘severe +’ category (above 450) respectively
- For this, the CAQM is relying on air quality and meteorological forecasts by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) and the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
- Measures being imposed under the previous categories will continue even when the subsequent category is activated, that is, if measures under Stage-2 are activated, measures under Stage-1 will continue to remain in place.
There is need for coordination among states for better implementation of plan
- The mere expression of intent will not be enough. A coordination mechanism between Delhi and its neighbouring states to make sure that the air in the region doesn’t turn foul during the winters has been in the works for far too long.
- Delhi’s latest plan indicates that people could be at the mercy of emergency measures even this year.
- Last year, the Commission for Air Quality Management underlined the need for a round-the-clock air quality monitoring network in the NCR. It stated that for NCR districts, the CPCB and state pollution control boards need to identify new sites to monitor pollution.
- But as a report in this paper, last week, pointed out, half of these stations in the region are in Delhi. Going by the CPCB’s list, at least nine of the monitoring units do not work.
- Only 20 of the 65 manual monitoring stations have the capacity to keep a continuous track of PM 2.5. Going ahead, NCR governments will have to identify monitoring shadow areas and plug the gaps.
The policy needs to be framed while considering the due factors of air pollution
- The Delhi government claims its policies have led to 40 per cent reduction in pollution since 2015. It’s right to an extent.
- But the fact also is that the plans have been found wanting several times when meteorological conditions turned unfavourable.
- Last year, Delhi experienced its cleanest Diwali in seven years, largely because winds blowing at 6-7 km/h prevented the accumulation of pollutants.
Conclusion:
- Less than two months later, in early January this year, Delhi’s residents were breathing toxic air again. Like in the past two years, the Delhi government has done well to frame its action plan at the beginning of the season. This early start must now be used to frame long-term solutions.