Editorial 1 : Chhattisgarhn ambush
Introduction: The BJP’s win in recently held elections in Chhattisgarh came as a surprise for everyone, including the party itself. Some things worked in the BJP’s favour and some things worked against Congress.
The Chhattisgarh election
- The Chhattisgarh Vidhan Sabha has 90 seats, of which 29 are reserved for Scheduled Tribes and 10 for Scheduled Castes.
- During the Vidhan Sabha Elections in 2018, Congress had unexpectedly won 68 seats and the BJP, after ruling the state for 15 years, had won only 15.
- Congress had grabbed 26 ST and seven SC seats — remarkably, it won 11 out of 12 seats in the tribal-dominated and Naxal violence-affected Bastar region and all 14 seats in the tribal Surguja region.
- It may be noted that the Congress had won all the by-elections held in the state after December 2018 and at the time of going into the contest in 2023, the effective strength of the Congress had risen to 71 seats, while that of the BJP had dwindled to 13 seats.
- But now, some ministers of the Baghel Cabinet have lost the elections.
The strengthening of Congress’s organisation in Chhattisgarh
- Since 2018, the state Congress, under the leadership of Bhupesh Baghel, has rejuvenated the organisation and set up an agenda for socio-economic reform.
- The Baghel model of giving a boost to the rural economy, promising higher MSP for paddy and minor forest produces, and creating an independent identity for Chhattisgarh, created a strong mood in favour of the party.
- While Congress was in electoral preparedness mode from day one, the state BJP, after its previous humiliating defeat, and marginalisation by its high command, was almost absent.
- Political analysts were unanimously giving the thumbs up to the Congress.
The BJP’s comeback
- The central leadership of the BJP and its election juggernaut swung into action just before the polls.
- The Prime Minister visited the state at least eight times, held rallies and addressed huge public meetings.
- A horde of central ministers and BJP chief ministers camped in the state for many weeks to lead the election campaign.
- The BJP, sensing the mood of the rural electorate, promised higher MSP for paddy and announced a much higher price for purchase and bonus arrears to the farmers for the years 2013 and 2014.
- Most importantly, it announced a scheme to pay Rs 12,000 per year to married women.
- Acting quickly, it got forms filled by women for this scheme.
- The Congress realised the effectiveness of the BJP’s announcements and immediately announced a still higher purchase price for paddy, a loan waiver scheme for farmers and a scheme to pay Rs 15,000 per year to all the women without any discrimination.
- The BJP, surprisingly, brought back all the senior state leaders to the party forum and gave the tickets at the last hour. This strategy worked well.
The BJP’s performance
- This time, the BJP has performed exceedingly well in Bastar and has swept polls in Surguja.
- It shows that its strategy of wooing the tribals has succeeded on two counts.
- Firstly, it was able to convince the tribals of better protection and support under the BJP regime, and
- second, it succeeded in polarising the community in the tribal area.
- It was able to secure the support of Scheduled Castes and OBC voters.
- The BJP played a very effective game of supporting smaller regional parties.
- It was expected that these parties would grab a portion of the SC and ST votes, supposedly the vote bank of the Congress.
- The BJP also tried to get some support from a section of disillusioned converted tribals.
- And no doubt, these smaller parties helped in the division of Congress votes, adversely affecting its prospects.
Conclusion: The Bhupesh Baghel model of boosting the rural economy seemed to create a strong wave in favour of the incumbent Congress. But BJP’s central leadership and election juggernaut swung into action to ensure its win.
Editorial 2 : Welfarism and its limits
Introduction: The Bhartiya Janata Party has secured a resounding victory in Rajasthan winning as many as 114 Assembly constituencies and securing nearly 42 per cent of the votes.
Performance of BJP and Congress in state election
- The BJP has swept through Marwar, Mewar, Harauti and Braj regions of the state receiving considerable support from its traditional social support group of the forward “castes” and consolidating it with the support of the OBCs and the Adivasis.
- It has won as many as 22 of the 34 SC seats and 12 of the ST seats, making its victory emphatic.
- On the other hand, the Indian National Congress has managed to win 67 seats and has received a 39.5 per cent vote share.
- Its presence is now limited to Baggad region in north Rajasthan and the Jat-dominated Shekhawati area.
- The party now appears to be drawing most of its support from the Dalits, Muslims and Adivasis.
- The electoral outcome in the state has once again affirmed the revolving door phenomenon witnessed since 1993, where power has alternated between the two principal political poles.
Why did Congress lose?
- It was felt that the flurry of welfare schemes, OPS and administrative reorganisation of the state, as well as the personal popularity of the CM, would enable Congress to defy the oscillation phenomenon.
- However, the results show that voters have not been enticed by the lure of schemes.
- The outcome seems to have established the limits of welfarism.
- Implementation of the schemes and actual delivery to the targeted population are important factors, which somehow did not receive the required attention.
- At the same time, to carry the message of the welfare schemes, the party needed a powerful organisation and effective micro-management which it lacked.
- Anti-incumbency was more against key ministers and many sitting MLAs of the ruling party, who were not replaced by fresh blood.
- Voters seem to have given more importance to issues of corruption, poor law and order, paper leakages and atrocities against women.
- The tug-of-war between Gehlot and Sachin Pilot afflicted the party throughout its term in office.
- The issue remained unresolved, damaging the prospects of the party badly.
- Further, the star campaigners of the party, including the Gandhis, as well as the issue of the caste survey seem to have made no visible positive impact.
- One factor which could have helped Congress was a possible alliance or seat-sharing with political parties like the CPM, Bharatiya Adivasi Party and the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party.
- In many constituencies, these parties have secured a sizable number of votes, resulting in the defeat not only of the official Congress candidate but also of the smaller political parties in the southern, northern and western parts of the state.
- The division of the “secular vote” has put paid to the prospects of the parties which have some ideological similarities.
- Thus, as an organisation, Congress failed to match up to its formidable adversary.
How did BJP win?
- A few months before the elections, the party appeared to be lacking confidence due to factionalism and infighting.
- The party was finding it hard to challenge the “welfare narrative” of Congress.
- One of the foremost reasons for the remarkable performance of the BJP is micro-management at the lowest level of political competition by the RSS and its front organisations.
- This network has again been successful in effectively spreading the “majoritarian agenda”.
- The political meetings and road shows of the top leaders, coupled with the hyper presence of social media groups, echoed this agenda throughout the state, which the Congress failed to counter.
- The first-time and young voters of the state were distraught about rising unemployment and also the repeated instances of paper leakages of important state recruitment examinations.
- The fact that there were more than 22 lakh new voters seems to have played a significant role in the BJP’s victory.
- Thus, what has enabled it to stage a grand comeback in the state is its well-oiled organisational machinery led by effective as well as disciplined leadership which had a clear message to convey to the voters.
Conclusion: Congress relied on flurry of welfare schemes to return to power. But the results seem to have established the limits of welfarism.