Editorial 1: How global power dynamics are shifting with the Russia-Ukraine war and what challenges it poses for India
Recent Context:
- Although India is presiding the chair of G20 summit in 2023, India can’t take its eyes off the significant shifts in great power equations triggered by Russia’s war against Ukraine.
- Multilateralism has a certain autonomous logic of its own, but it can rarely transcend the dynamic among great powers.
Why G20 summit,2023 in India is more challenging:
- When great powers cooperate, multilateralism has reasonable chances of success and when they don’t, failure looms large.
- Three decades of relative harmony among major powers after the end of the Cold War produced significant advances in multilateralism.
- Today, as the great powers get at each other’s throats, the prospects for multilateral agreements have diminished. On both the economic and political fronts, the conflict among the major powers has sharpened. That makes India’s chairmanship of G20 more challenging.
- For Indian diplomacy, then, the year 2023 is as much about multilateral diplomacy as it is about adapting to a potentially historic shift in great power relations.
- The endgame of the Ukraine war — or the nature of the peace settlement in Ukraine — remains the decisive variable in 2023.
- Major wars have always reshaped great power relations and rearranged the international system. Russia’s war against Ukraine will be no exception.
How do the major wars in the past shaped the global politics:
- The First World War saw the collapse of the Ottoman, Austro-Hungarian, and the Russian empires.
- It also helped the Bolsheviks in Russia form the Soviet Union, gave birth to new nations in Europe, and accelerated the rise of Asian nationalism.
- The Second World War hastened the demise of European colonialism and heralded the rise of the United States and the Soviet Union as the “superpowers”.
- Washington and Moscow managed an armed peace in a divided Europe during the Cold War. The process of decolonisation saw the birth of a number of new nations in Asia and Africa.
- The Cold War led to the collapse of the Soviet Union, undid its sphere of influence in East and Central Europe and led to the rise of the “unipolar moment”.
- The era of massive economic interdependence that followed the Cold War saw the rapid rise of China and a slower but definitive emergence of India as a major power.
- Moscow and Beijing, which were willing to acquiesce in the unipolar moment in the 1990s, began to assert themselves against the US-led international order in the 21st century. Europe focused on strengthening its economic and political integration, and sought greater “strategic autonomy” from the United States
- In 21st century, over the last decade, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping bet that the apparent American decline was real and irreversible. That emboldened Putin to fancy his chances in ending Ukraine’s sovereignty.
- The seeming political disarray in the West also convinced Xi to back Putin’s attempt to reorder European regional security order.
How the current Russia- Ukraine war will shape the global power dynamic:
- First, as the costs of war mount, the case for diplomacy will gain ground in 2023.
- While both sides talk about peace, they are also gearing up to fight through the harsh winter.
- Bridging that gulf between Russian and Ukrainian negotiating positions will occupy diplomacy in 2023.
- Second, whatever the nature of the eventual settlement,
- Russia will come out weaker from this military misadventure.
- Putin’s attempts to eliminate Ukraine as an independent nation and roll back the eastward expansion of NATO have backfired.
- The war has consolidated Ukraine as a nation and NATO has expanded to include Sweden and Finland.
- Third, the war has also demonstrated Europe’s inability to defend itself against Russia despite the EU’s economy being 10 times larger than that of Russia.
- But for now and the near term, Europe will remain dependent on the US to defend it against an expansionist Russia. While Europe is weaker, trans-Atlantic NATO has become stronger.
- Fourth, the US is emerging as a big winner from the Ukraine war.
- American oil companies are raking it in from high energy prices. US weapons like the HIMARS and its high technology companies like SpaceX with its Starlink satellite system and Palantir with its algorithms — have actively shaped the battlefield in favour of Ukraine, the underdog in the war.
- Far more consequential is the fact that without being directly involved in the fight, the US is influencing the direction of the war and has the most leverage in defining the terms of peace in Ukraine.
- While the world is not returning to the “unipolar moment” of the 1990s, the US is coming out on the top of the heap in the unfolding geopolitical scrum. With very capable allies and partners in Europe and Asia, the US is well poised to sustain the pressure on both Russia and China at the same time.
- Fifth, US has become a valuable partner for the middle powers at the receiving end of Russian and Chinese bullying.
- Russian expansionism in Europe and Chinese aggressiveness in Asia have compelled Germany in Europe and Japan in Asia to boost their defence spending.
- Poland in Europe and Australia and South Korea in Asia have embarked on ambitious regional security policies.
- Sixth, if Xi’s initial backing for Putin on Ukraine was a mistake, the Chinese leader has some room to undo parts of the error.
- Unlike Putin, who is finding it hard to walk back from the terrible misadventure in Ukraine, Xi has minimised his risks by avoiding armed support to Putin’s war.
- China is also well placed to benefit from Russia’s Ukraine mistakes by expanding Beijing’s influence in Central Asia.
- Seventh, India that long relied on Russia to provide a regional balance of power will have to rework its great power sums.
- This should not be too hard, given India’s improving relations with the US and Europe and its focus on diversifying its defence partnerships
- however, India will have to move much faster in developing the national capabilities and international partnerships to deter China’s aggressive actions on the border and balance Beijing’s power in the Indo-Pacific. Delhi certainly can’t take for granted that its current economic and political advantages will endure.
Conclusion:
- It is unlikely the world will return to the kind of multilateralism we got used to since the 1990s. India’s G20 leadership would be a success if it can prevent the complete breakdown of the multilateral system and generate major power consensus on a few issues.
- Meanwhile, new rules for the global order are beginning to emerge from like-minded groupings like the G7 rather than a deeply divided G20.
Editorial 2: Science Congress: an appraisal
Recent Context:
- After a two-year Covid-enforced absence, the Indian Science Congress is back, with its 108th edition getting underway in Nagpur on Tuesday.
- As is customary, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the event. He reiterated his call for harnessing scientific knowledge for societal needs and making India self-reliant.
History of Science congress
- With a history dating back to 1914, the Science Congress is a one-of-its-kind event in the country
- It brings together scientists and researchers not just from the premier institutions and laboratories but also science teachers and professors from colleges and universities, and offering a platform for their interaction with students and the general public on matters related to science.
- It has had a glorious past, with the who’s who of Indian science not just participating but also serving as organisers
Certain areas of concern regarding the science congress
- In more recent times, the event has attracted attention for all the wrong reasons such as
- lack of serious discussion, t
- he promotion of pseudoscience,
- outlandish claims by random speakers, and the absence of useful outcomes.
- The Science Congress hits the headlines more for the controversies it generates than for scientific discussions.
- Most credible scientists now avoid the event. Leading scientific institutions and laboratories only have a token presence, if at all. Most attendees are from colleges and universities with limited scientific credentials. The papers presented or the talks delivered hardly reflect the latest advancements in science.
How and Who organise the Indian science congress:
- The event is organized by the Indian Science Congress Association (ISCA), an independent body functioning with the support of the Department of Science and Technology (DST) in the central government.
- The salaries of the permanent staff of ISCA are paid by the DST. For organising the Science Congress, the government provides an annual grant, which has been increased to Rs 5 crore from this year
- Several other government agencies, like the Science and Education Research Board, also make financial contributions because the event is seen as an effort to promote science. Additional resources are raised through sponsorship and fees for renting out exhibition spaces.
- The government has no role to play in the selection of the panelists or speakers, the papers to be presented, or the subjects to be discussed. But because of the support it provides, and also due to the presence of the Prime Minister, other ministers, and officials, the event gets closely associated with the government.
Prime minister urge for using the scientific develop for the wellbeing of Human:
- Scientific works should be such which will fulfill the needs of India and will give momentum to 17-18 per cent of the world’s humanity.
- And its effect will be on the entire humanity. Therefore, we should work on such issues which are important for the entire humanity.
- For example, if we take the issue of energy. India’s energy needs are going to grow continuously. In such a situation, if the scientific community of India makes innovations related to energy requirements, then it will be of great benefit to the country,”
- There are also other priority areas like disease control, management of natural disasters, space applications, waste management, new materials, and semiconductor research.
Conclusion:
- Scientists say that a better way to reform the Science Congress could be to develop an alternative forum where top Indian and global scientists could be invited to talk about the latest developments in the scientific world and their impacts on our lives.
- Such events are already being organised in many countries, and are extremely popular. These also serve as platforms to get youngsters and the general public excited about science, and help in the cultivation of scientific temper, which is one of the main purposes of the Science Congress as well.
- More than anything else, such an alternative forum could further the cause of making Indian science more competitive, and could also lead to an increase in collaborative research with leading scientific groups and institutions.