Editorial 1 : Don’t Panic on Population
Context: Mohan Bhagwat’s three-child plan: Why concern about India’s falling fertility rate is misplaced.
Introduction: Demographic parameters have traditionally been considered as stable, unlike socioeconomic indicators, they change only in the long run. Demographic parameters in India are undergoing significant shifts, leading to debates about their socioeconomic and political implications.
Shift in Demographic Narrative
- From Overpopulation to Labour Shortages
- Historically, concerns revolved around high fertility rates burdening developmental gains.
- Now, fears of labour shortages and economic deceleration are emerging due to below-replacement fertility rates in several regions.
- Regional Variations in Fertility Rates
- States like Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Punjab have a TFR below 1.9.
- Poorer states such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand still have higher fertility rates, creating potential for population growth in those regions.
RSS Advocating for Higher Fertility
- Concerns
- Three-Child Policy Advocacy: It is misaligned with India’s current demographic and economic realities.
- Comparison with Developed Economies: India’s socioeconomic context differs significantly from nations like Japan, Korea, and China.
- Unintended Consequences: A push for higher fertility rates could disproportionately increase the population.
- Population Policy and Religious Demographics
- NFHS data shows rapid fertility decline among Muslims, SCs, and STs, with projected convergence with other groups in two decades.
Implications of Demographic Transition
- Political
- Southern states losing political space at the national level due to their declining share in population as the delimitation process of parliamentary constituencies and seat allocation is based on population.
- Devolution of funds by the Finance Commission wherein population is accorded high weightage — the formula puts the southern states at a disadvantage.
- Economic
- Labour shortages are unlikely given India’s current fertility trends and large reservoir of semi-employed workers.
- Regional labour deficits can be mitigated through:
- Facilitating interstate migration.
- Improving working and living conditions for migrants.
- Enhancing skill development programs.
Unlocking Labour Potential in India
- Women’s Workforce Participation
- Women’s participation in the labour market remains low but offers significant untapped potential.
- Economic growth in manufacturing and services could shift women from informal, low-productivity work to skilled jobs.
- Elderly Workforce and Retirement
- India’s elderly have a high work participation rate due to household survival needs.
- Key Focus Areas:
- Relieving the elderly from arduous work through social security measures.
- Creating part-time or flexible work opportunities.
- Improving healthcare and infrastructure for the elderly.
- Strengthening family support systems with financial incentives.
Way Forward: Policy Recommendations
- Migration of Labour: Remove interstate migration barriers.
- Worker Friendly Policy: Streamline procedures and ensure worker-friendly policies.
- Social and Economic Development
- Prioritize education, health, and skill development to lower fertility rates in lagging communities.
- Address informal employment by creating structured, skill-based jobs.
- Elderly Support Systems
- Invest in old-age homes and healthcare facilities.
- Social security schemes tailored to Indian family structures.
Conclusion: There is no need to hit the panic button related to population and demography. It is important that a committee at the highest level is set up to analyse the trends and patterns of demographic transition in different states and work on a roadmap for the future.
Editorial 2 : The Modi-Jaishankar Doctrine
Context: Balancing India’s foreign relations in Cold War 2.0.
Introduction: There is a gradual and accelerating shift in India’s international stature, and also in its posture.
India’s History of Non-Alignment
- Post-independence non-alignment was born out of necessity, shaped by India’s economic and military limitations.
- It was aimed to shield India from Cold War rivalries while focusing on domestic development.
- It prioritized minimizing external interference over active global engagement.
- Post-Cold War: The security cooperation with Soviet Union transitioned to cooperation with Russian Federation.
From Non-Alignment to Multi-Alignment
- Non-Alignment vs multi-alignment
- Non-alignment: A strategy of avoidance and minimization of risks.
- Multi-alignment: A strategy of active engagement, leveraging relationships based on mutual interests and values.
- Core Features of the Jaishankar-Modi Doctrine
- Multi-Polar World, Multi-Vector Strategy
- It emphasizes pragmatic engagement with multiple powers.
- It balances interests and values, signalling India’s active global role.
- Proactive Engagement: India is asserting its capacity and willingness to leverage its geopolitical position.
Examples of Multi-Alignment in Practice
- Russia: Beneficial crude oil purchases while avoiding outright condemnation for the Ukraine invasion.
- United States: Acquisition of advanced defence equipment and strategic partnerships despite tensions.
- West Asia: Supporting Israel’s right to respond in Gaza while maintaining ties with Iran (e.g., Indian port projects).
Opportunities
- Strategic Autonomy
- India avoids entanglement in rigid alliances, preserving its flexibility.
- India is positioning itself as a major player in a multi-polar world.
- Economic and Diplomatic Leverage: India engages with diverse nations and creates opportunities for trade, defence, and technology partnerships.
- Global Perception: India is increasingly seen as a stabilizing force and a credible voice in international forums.
Challenges
- Morality vs Rationality in Diplomacy: Balancing national interests with adherence to core values may prove difficult.
- Potential Bipolarity in World (Cold War 2.0)
- A collapse of multi-polarity into bi-polarity could force India to pick sides, undermining its current strategy and it raises the risk of alienating allies if interests clash.
Way Forward and Conclusion
- India’s approach hinges on the assumption of a stable multi-polar global order. Its success depends on the durability of multi-polarity and India’s ability to navigate the emerging power dynamics.
- India must articulate clear narratives that reflect both its interests and values as consistency in moral positioning will be critical to sustaining credibility.