Editorial 1 : The challenge for INDIA
Introduction: When dramatic expectations are set through media management, a setback looks like defeat. When parties and leaders are believed to be invincible, retaining power with constraints looks devastating. This is the BJP’s predicament. After enjoying two consecutive terms with an unfettered majority, the BJP can now return to a third term with crutches.
The outcome presents us following observations
BJP's Third Term:
- Reduced Strength in Lok Sabha: Compared to the past five years, unless they increase their seat tally through financial means.
- Robust Vote Share: Despite setbacks, maintaining nearly 38% vote share.
- Need for Compromises: To form the government and remain in power, the BJP must make compromises internally and with allies, challenging its leadership.
Narendra Modi's Role:
- Driver of Success and Underachievement: Modi's leadership is central to the BJP's successes and shortcomings.
- Electoral Machine: The BJP’s electoral success, especially in south and east India, credits Modi, while setbacks indicate his limitations.
- Brand Modi: Understanding Modi as a brand is crucial to analyzing BJP’s achievements, implications, and future impact on India.
BJP’s Political Discourse:
- Changed Terms of Discourse: BJP has shifted political focus, condoning economic hardship for distant dreams and promoting religio-cultural narratives.
- Hindutva Milestone: Achieving the goal of making Hindutva central to Indian culture and politics.
Electoral Outcome Analysis:
- Historical Context: Current results fit into historical political shifts since the 1990s.
- Campaign Strategies: BJP's use of religious identity versus Opposition's focus on distribution and social justice.
- Brand Modi’s Appeal: Represents a saviour figure, strong personality, devout Hindu leader, demagogue against “the other,” and promoter of economic aspirations.
Twin Factors of Modi Regime:
- Hindutva and Personality Cult: Central to Modi’s governance and unlikely to be abandoned despite electoral setbacks.
- Tension and Co-existence: A leader with a divine mission and routine political compromises, alongside popular Hindutva approval and emerging Hindutva fatigue.
Implications for the Opposition:
- Cautious Interpretation: Economic hardships have impacted BJP, but its core agenda remains un-rejected by voters.
- Challenge of Countering Hegemony: Opposition lacks ideological strength to counter BJP’s cultural and religious dominance.
- Potential Momentum: With BJP’s reduced strength, isolating it might gain traction, but non-BJP parties must find the will to challenge effectively.
Enduring Support for Modi Regime:
- Foundational Agenda Endorsement: Despite economic and democratic challenges, a significant citizenry segment supports the regime’s core agenda.
- Cultural Transformation: BJP's aim to homogenize and transform India’s religious and cultural identity remains strong despite setbacks.
Opportunity for Opposition:
- Staging a Counter: The election outcome provides an opportunity, not a victory, for non-BJP parties to define their politics and challenge BJP’s agenda.
Conclusion: With a truncated strength of the BJP, the politics of isolating it may gain momentum but the critical question is whether the non-BJP parties — in Opposition or in power — have the energy and will to attack the BJP on a front where it is far too strong.
Editorial 2 : The show must go on
Introduction: The election outcome seems to be against the market and exit polls expectations. But the show must go on. The incoming government should aim for a rapid increase in per capita GDP through accelerated, inclusive and environmentally sustainable growth.
The factors that are kept in mind before making policies for growth
- Our growth aspirations have to keep in mind the rapidly changing global backdrop.
- The world is moving from globalisation to protectionism.
- Interest rates are likely to remain elevated.
- Fiscal stimulation will recede.
- Environmental considerations, along with technological disruptions, will adversely impact many businesses.
Key challenges and opportunities for growth
1. Disguised Employment in Agriculture
- Create employment opportunities in industry/services domestically and abroad.
- Address higher power and logistics costs burdening manufacturing.
- Consider monetising PSU market cap for subsidies to enhance manufacturing competitiveness and leverage the China plus one opportunity.
2. Boost Consumption
- Focus on the bottom of the pyramid and mass market products.
- Implement a gold monetisation scheme to integrate parallel economy gold into the mainstream, raising resources and liquidity.
3. Agriculture’s Role in Inclusive Growth
- Replicate cooperative movements like Amul for other commodities.
- Substitute imported agri-products with local alternatives.
- Promote agro-product exports, inspired by the Netherlands' success.
- Explore bilateral food vs. oil arrangements, e.g., with Saudi Arabia.
4. Free Labour Movement in FTAs
- Negotiate long-term work permits in FTAs for increased remittances.
- Offer preferential market access for reciprocal labour access.
5. Skills Development
- Expand institutional mechanisms for skill development across India, e.g., plumbing institute in Kendrapara, Odisha.
6. Expand Manufacturing Jobs
- Improve/launch PLI schemes to boost sectors like garments, processed agro products, automobiles, and shipbuilding.
- Focus on sectors that create jobs for women.
7. Support Services Sectors
- Integrate development in tourism, education, and healthcare.
- Leverage the Indian diaspora as brand ambassadors.
- Enhance local ecosystems to retain spending on travel and education domestically.
8. Unlock Frozen Savings for Investment
- Innovate to mobilise savings in real estate, gold, and currencies for domestic capital.
9. Enhance Rule of Law
- Improve judicial infrastructure to resolve cases faster and attract investors.
- Address investor preference for arbitration outside India.
10. Ease of Doing Business
- Tackle challenges in land acquisition and labour laws.
- Establish special economic zones with streamlined processes.
11. Invest in Future Technologies
- Operationalise funds for future tech investments through public-private partnerships.
- Develop institutes for AI and vertically integrate the pharma industry.
12. Green Growth and Carbon Emissions
- Advocate for technology/capital grants based on per capita historical emissions.
- Promote carbon credits and emission taxes in line with historical contributions.
13. Responsible Mining Policy
- Balance local and industrial interests in land acquisition for mining.
- Use Odisha as a model for revenue surplus driven by mining royalties.
14. Healthy and Educated Citizens for Sustainable Growth
- Leverage technology for quality education and healthcare.
- Enhance accountability in government schools through public-private partnerships.
- Use DBT and education coupons to improve educational quality.
15. Improve Financial Awareness
- Encourage investor education to optimise savings allocation and avoid pitfalls like cryptos, Ponzi schemes, and derivatives trading.
Conclusion: India aspires for economic growth that is both inclusive and sustainable. To achieve this, the country needs a multi-pronged approach. Creating more jobs is paramount, along with strengthening core sectors like manufacturing and services. Additionally, streamlining regulations to make it easier to conduct business is essential.