Editorial 1: Partners in Food Security
Context: 32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE) being hosted by India from August 2-7 in Delhi.
ICAE: Past to Present
- Historically ICAE has its roots in India. The founding president of ICAE was Lord L K Elmhirst, the British agronomist.
- He was invited by Rabindranath Tagore to help in giving real scientific training to the villages around Santiniketan in order to give them complete freedom and set an ideal for whole country.
- The last time India hosted the ICAE was in Mysore in 1958, with Jawaharlal Nehru, as the chief guest.
- From those roots, ICAE has flourished over time. It is perhaps the biggest congregation of agricultural economists committed to world’s food and nutritional security.
India-Africa: Facing similar challenges
- India had a successful green and white (milk) revolution but Africa is still struggling to overcome food shortages.
- Nutritional security, especially of children below the age five, still remains a challenge for India and Africa.
- The two regions have a lot of experiences to share:
- High debt service ratios result in lower agricultural spending relative to social protection
- African countries consistently underfund agriculture compared to Indian states, hampering productivity and efforts to reduce child malnutrition
- Enhancing public spending on agricultural R&D and extension is crucial, as both regions underinvest in these high-return areas
- Reforming subsidies and reallocating resources to infrastructure and R&D to boost agricultural growth and improve child nutrition outcomes.
- Agricultural investment pays off in poverty reduction and saves on social spending.
- Food hand-outs have their role in food crises but must not impair growth and job creation in rural areas.
Global fight against hunger
- At the global level, in its fight against global hunger, the human and financial costs of complacency are alarming.
- As a result of recent developments – including growing conflicts, the climate crisis and economic slowdowns – and the lack of concerted global action, achieving the established goal of the United Nations of zero hunger by 2030 seems increasingly infeasible.
- According to FAO it would require additional investments of $21 billion annually in agriculture and rural areas to end global hunger by 2040.
South-South collaboration for food security
- Given that the African Union was invited to be a permanent member of G20 during India’s Presidency, it opens the gates for India and Africa to learn from global developments in food and agriculture, and also promote South-South collaboration and learning from each other to overcome their food and nutritional security challenges.
- It is now all the more important to get the South-South collaboration on vibrant mode.
- The developed countries of G20 can help to solve the problems of food and nutritional security in the Global South by addressing climate change with support for resilience and by sharing science and innovation for food systems transformation.
- The investment in climate resilience requires adaptation, mitigation and system transformation.
- The system transformation is facilitated by building the bioeconomy which would benefit from global investments, including the Global Climate Fund.
- The sequence of G20 presidencies over these four years 2022–25 – Indonesia, India, Brazil and next year South Africa – shows indications of change in governance of food systems.
- A well-functioning global food system is mainly in the interest of the Global South.
Conclusion: With PM Modi being an active advocate of south-south cooperation and the chief guest at ICAE, it can be hoped that he will take this agenda of the south in G20, and also provide dynamism in agri-food relations between Africa and India for the common good of almost one third of humanity.
Editorial 2 : Watching Dhaka
Context: Resignation of Sheikh Hasina and political turmoil in Bangladesh
Introduction: The old order in Bangladesh has changed irreversibly and India will have to adjust to the change. PM Sheikh Hasina resigned and left the country. The Bangladesh Army have taken charge though it has promised an interim government of “stakeholders” to pave the way for free and fair elections.
Growing Discontent against Hasina
- A student protest against reservation morphed into a wider people’s movement against the increasingly autocratic and corruption-ridden rule of Sheikh Hasina.
- Sheikh Hasina’s rule was tolerable as long as the Bangladesh economy, centred on export of garments, was registering sustained growth and delivering on jobs and better living standards.
- The garment industry was badly hit because of pandemic in 2020 and slowing global economy.
- A toxic mix of economic distress and the increasingly high-handed behaviour of the government and its Awami League party members turned a student protest into a full-scale anti-government people’s movement.
- Delhi has to decide its future path regarding Sheikh Hasina, it must acknowledge that the people of Bangladesh have rejected an unpopular government and have the legitimate right to chart their own future.
Nepal’s Example
- In 2006, a people’s movement in Nepal gathered in the capital, Kathmandu, asking for an end to an increasingly dictatorial monarchical rule and restoration of multi-party democracy.
- India chose to align itself with popular sentiment in Nepal, declaring that it would respect whatever choice the people of Nepal made. This defused a potentially ugly situation since there was a widespread belief in Nepal that India was pro-monarchy.
- In the current evolving situation in Bangladesh, India should be seen as supporting the expression of popular will in a sensitive neighbouring country.
India-Bangladesh relations under Hasina
- Since 2009, the rule Sheikh Hasina, helped transform India-Bangladesh relations into a success story for India’s neighbourhood policy. India made significant gains.
- Bangladesh was no longer a sanctuary for elements hostile to India. This helped in bringing relative peace to India’s Northeast.
- Connectivity projects between the two countries, have advanced mutually beneficial economic integration.
- India should express its readiness to expand the bilateral economic engagement with a successor government. The temptation to brand the ongoing political change as anti-India or anti-Hindu should be avoided.
Pakistan-China geopolitical play
- Both Pakistan and China will see the political change in Bangladesh as an opportunity to challenge India’s presence in the country.
- They will try to tar India with a pro-Hasina brush. This may even get some traction.
Way forward for India
- India should bide its time and allow the logic of economic interest to assert itself.
- There are strong people-to-people relations and close cultural affinities which are assets that have prevailed even when political relations have been strained.
- Delhi should let the current storm dissipate, be cautious and discreet in its reactions.
- Maldives’ Example
- A new dispensation in Dhaka may adopt hostile policies similar to Maldives when Mohamed Muizzu took over as the President.
- The Indian reaction was mature and kept the door open for the continuance of close and mutually beneficial ties through discreet engagement and dialogue.
- Relations have returned to an even keel. This is a good template to follow.
- The questions to which there are no ready answers, should not influence Delhi’s policy in this fluid situation.
Conclusion: The situation in Bangladesh is changing rapidly. Several questions will remain to be answered in the coming days. The time-tested diplomatic response to this should be to wait and watch how things will develop and to reiterate our friendly sentiments for the people of a close and important neighbour.