Editorial 1 : The Rawalpindi factor
Context: 5 years since abrogation of Article 370.
Introduction: On 5 Aug 2019, by ending the ambiguity in J&K’s relationship with India, Delhi has buried the idea that its internal status is open-ended and negotiable. But the issue has not disappeared from the template of the conflict with Pakistan.
The international dimension over Kashmir
- Since Delhi decided to take the issue to the United Nations in 1948, the international dimension has hung heavy over India’s Kashmir policy.
- The 1972 Shimla agreement did not eliminate the third-party role in the issue.
- Pakistan Army disowned the Shimla agreement, seized the opportunity in the Kashmir turbulence of the late 1980s and renewed the effort to internationalise the question.
- The frequent military crises triggered by cross-border terrorism raised international alarm about their escalation to the nuclear level. This fused the Kashmir question with the new global focus on the dangers of nuclear proliferation.
- Delhi can take credit for significantly reducing the global salience of the Kashmir question over the years.
Keeping the issue bilateral
- Despite reducing the international salience, the problem of dealing with Pakistan’s cross-border terrorism and its capacity to create political trouble in Kashmir remained.
- Delhi put the Kashmir question back on the bilateral agenda with Pakistan in the 1990s. A serious effort was made by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and General Pervez Musharraf to find a solution during 2004-07.
After 5 August 2019
- Changing the constitutional status quo in Kashmir in August 2019 was a capstone of the NDA government’s strategy to renegotiate the terms of engagement with Pakistan on Kashmir.
- An outraged Pakistan turned to China to put the Kashmir question on the UNSC agenda. Delhi blocked the move with the help of Washington and Paris.
- Support from the UAE and Saudi Arabia helped prevent Pakistan from making it a big issue for the Islamic world.
- India’s new partnerships in the West and the Islamic world, helped neutralise long-standing bases of international support for Pakistan and its anti-India causes.
- This was facilitated by the steady rise of India as an economic power.
Pakistan’s situation
- Pakistan’s deepening international political divisions have reinforced its economic weakness making Rawalpindi’s challenge to Delhi less salient than before.
- By refusing to engage India until Delhi reversed its constitutional changes vis a vis Kashmir, Islamabad has locked itself in a diplomatic position from which it has been hard to wriggle out.
Conclusion and way forward
- Although India has had a relatively easier time dealing with Pakistan since August 5, 2019, Delhi should not assume that it can simply ignore Rawalpindi or that the Kashmir question is no longer relevant.
- Pakistan army may be down, but it is certainly not out. Renewed political trouble in Kashmir will inevitably draw international attention.
- Accelerating the effort at internal reconciliation in Kashmir, countering the renewed cross-border terrorism, and connecting with diverse elements of the Pakistan polity should be at the top of India’s national security priorities.
Editorial 2 : Realpolitik can be green
Context: Recent disasters in Wayanad & Uttarakhand and green transition.
India’s green energy transition
- India’s green energy transition is not a uniform national transition. There are several, varying state-led transitions.
- There is tension between the drivers of green energy transition and the trade policy.
- There is an imbalance between the realpolitik of governance and the ethical imperative of sustainable development.
Green electrification
- The green energy transition is predominantly about green electrification.
- The pace, scope and size of the shift from fossil fuels to a clean, non-carbon energy system depend on the electrification of transport, industry, buildings and residential areas.
- As electricity generation, transmission and distribution is a Concurrent Subject, the design and effectiveness of the green energy transition is the joint responsibility of the Centre and states.
On the right track
- There is a roadmap for meeting 50% of India’s energy requirements from renewables by 2030. The objective is to create 500 GW of renewable energy installed capacity by 2030.
- Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) is committed to bid out 50 GW of solar generation capacity every year and have exceeded the target by almost 25% in 2023.
- Different ministries and regulatory agencies are working in harmony and not in silos.
The limiting factors
- Transmission connectivity is inadequate. Scale-up requires grid-scale energy storage which remains a long-haul problem.
- Green finance is limited and is for short duration. There is a dearth of patient green capital with a 25-year time horizon.
Performance of states
- There is no uniformity in the pattern of the clean energy transition across the states. They are proceeding at varying speeds.
- States like Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Odisha, and Delhi have moved further and faster because of a combination of a conducive policy environment, demographics, and OEMs.
- Others, like Haryana, have comparably supportive policies, but progress has slowed because of their failure to put in place the machinery for implementation.
- Financially stretched states like Rajasthan have struggled to provide the incentives to propel the shift away from fossil fuels.
Syncing trade and climate policy
- Trade policy must subserve national interest. But in the context of the energy transition, this surfaces a policy dilemma best exemplified by the outsized presence of China in the clean energy market.
- China can produce world-class quality solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries at the cheapest price.
- Allowing Indian manufacturers unconstrained access to cheap Chinese products will reduce the price gap between clean energy and fossil fuels and would accelerate green transition.
- Geopolitically India cannot expose itself to the vulnerability of over-dependence on China. There would be national security implications.
- Apart from the dilemma of sustainability and security, there is one more dilemma between sustainability and growth.
- The challenge for our leaders is to find a balance between the compulsions of sustainability and the demands of national security and economic growth. It is to bring trade and climate policies into sync.
Conclusion: The world faces an ethical conundrum. Global warming is a fact. Every day we are reminded of this reality. The human and economic costs of climate change are palpable. And yet, the governance structures for dealing with this crisis are stuck in the mire of rigid, beggar-thy-neighbour, self-serving nationalisms.