Editorial 1 : Two alarm bells
Introduction: The victory of two Independents in Punjab has raised concerns. Waris Punjab De chief Amritpal Singh, incarcerated in Dibrugarh jail under the National Security Act (NSA), won the Lok Sabha seat of Khadoor Sahib. Sarabjit Singh Khalsa, the elder son of Beant Singh, the assassin of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, secured the Faridkot seat after three unsuccessful attempts.
The potential reasons for victory of these two members
- Their victories came in an election in which long-term allies, Shiromani Akali Dal and Bharatiya Janata Party, contested separately for the first time in decades.
- For years, the Akalis provided a moderating influence in the panthic space, but their credibility suffered after the incidents of sacrilege that wracked the state in 2015.
- It eroded further during the farm agitation, which also became the trigger for the SAD breaking the alliance with the BJP, leading to a vacuum that actors like Amritpal are now trying to fill.
- While Sarabjit may have benefited from the focus on Operation Bluestar due to its 40th anniversary this year and anti-incumbency against the ruling Aam Aadmi Party, his win also points to Punjab’s unresolved issues.
How BJP-SAD alliance was guarantor of communal harmony in Punjab?
- The BJP-SAD alliance was seen as a guarantor of communal harmony in the border state that experienced protracted militancy in the 1980s.
- The BJP’s command over Hindu votes and SAD’s influence over panthic and Jat Sikhs vote made their alliance helpful for communal harmony of the state.
What are the unresolved issues of Punjab that has potential to create unrest?
- The SYL river water-sharing agreement, which sparked the Dharam Yudh Morcha in the 1980s, taken over by militant ideologue Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale, justice for victims of the 1984 killings, remission for Sikh political prisoners who have been in jail for over three decades, and the continuing menace of drugs are issues that continue to fester and provide fodder to forces inimical to peace in the state.
- Amritpal, with his diatribe against drugs and an “unjust Indian state,” is also capitalising on these issues, although many state leaders are openly suspicious about his antecedents.
- Both the Akalis and the Congress have called him a “plant” to destabilise the state.
What could be the impact of these two unconventional victories in Punjab?
- The impact of these two poll wins will depend on how they are handled by both the Centre and the state government.
- All political parties with a stake in the state should learn from mistakes of the recent past.
- It would be a grave error to use these victories to polarise the state for electoral gain.
- What Punjab needs most is unity and resolve to address longstanding grievances.
- The border state with a bleeding economy in the throes of an agrarian crisis can ill afford another upheaval.
- While focusing on these two wins, and what they could mean, however, it is important to note that the polls also saw the defeat of one of the original hardliners, Simranjit Singh Mann, the Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar) chief, who won his first election while in jail in 1989.
Conclusion: Election victories of hardliners from Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot point to need for vigilance by mainstream parties in Punjab. Political parties must introspect the reason for their inability to fulfil the aspirations of people of Punjab.
Editorial 2 : Roti Dal Sabzi
Introduction: Among the many readings of Verdict 2024 is this one: The outcome, in many parts of the country, may have been shaped by economic issues like berozgari (unemployment) and mehengai (inflation) rising to the surface, and becoming salient.
The inflation became hot burning poll issue
Inflation just before 2019 election
- Of the unemployment and inflation, the latter may have proved to be more decisive — Indian voters have historically blamed governments for inflation.
- They might be reconciled to working for low remuneration, but not to price rise significantly eating into their purchasing power.
- The average annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation in the 12 months from May 2018 leading to the 2019 election was just 3.3 per cent.
- It was even lower, at 0.03 per cent, for retail food inflation.
- Benign inflation provided an environment that was conducive to the Narendra Modi government’s return to power by a thumping majority, bigger than in 2014.
Inflation before 2024 election
- Overall CPI inflation has averaged 5.37 per cent year-on-year in the 12 months ended April, way above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target of 4 per cent.
- It’s been higher, at 7.88 percent, for food inflation and even more in basic foods: Cereals (10.39 per cent), pulses (16.07 per cent) and vegetables (18.33 per cent).
- The price of roti-dal-sabzi would have arguably weighed much more on the ordinary voter’s mind, than in 2019.
What did government do to calm inflation?
- The Modi government was, no doubt, alive to the situation, responding through supply-side measures — from allowing imports of major pulses and edible oils at 0-5 per cent duty and banning/restricting exports of wheat, non-basmati rice, sugar and onion to imposing stocking limits in wheat and pulses for traders and retailers.
- But a not-so-great agricultural production year in 2023-24, thanks to an El Niño-induced patchy monsoon, and supply disruptions from Covid and the Russia-Ukraine war before that, have contributed to durable inflationary pressures through much of the Modi government’s second term.
The priority of coming government
- The Modi-led National Democratic Alliance government, set to be sworn in by the weekend, will need to double down on inflation control.
- Imports of pulses and edible oils at zero/low duties should not only continue, but be extended to other agri-commodities such as wheat.
- The RBI, too, cannot cut its policy interest rates without anchoring of inflationary expectations — which, among Indian households, is clearly linked to the price of roti-dal-sabzi.
- A good monsoon — rainfall has been above-average so far and the Met Department expects it to sustain for the whole season (June-September) — should translate into a bountiful kharif harvest.
- Whether or not that happens, food inflation will probably present a big challenge for the new government.
Conclusion: Food inflation may have contributed to election result. This was not the first time that Indians revolted against price rise. Taming this inflation will present the first challenge for new government.