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07 Dec 2024 : The Indian Express

Editorial 1 : Holding Steady

Context: Why RBI isn’t cutting interest rates

 

Introduction: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its latest meeting decided to leave the repo rate unchanged. It did lower the cash reserve ratio (CRR) this time, and is expected to reduce the repo rate during its next policy review meeting in February.
 

Inflation: A Persistent Challenge

  • Headline CPI Inflation: Breached the upper tolerance limit (6%) in October.
  • Retail Food Inflation: Average vegetarian thali cost rose 20% in October; non-vegetarian thali up by 5%.
  • Non-Food Inflation: More stable, at 2.5% for April-October 2024, 150 bps lower year-on-year.

 

Slower Economic Growth

  • GDP Growth
    • Q2 FY25 growth was 5.4%, the slowest in seven quarters.
    • The RBI revised its annual GDP forecast downward from 7.2% to 6.6%.
  • Consumption
    • Private consumption has slowed, especially in urban areas due to high inflation and elevated interest rates.
    • Rural consumption appears more resilient, supported by strong agricultural output.

 

Global Trends

  • Monetary policies of major economies have become less restrictive in recent times.
  • The US Fed and the European Central Bank ECB have cut 75 basis points (bps) each in 2024.
  • But the pace of rate action has been slower than expected as taming inflation is proving to be tough for them as well.
  • While most emerging market central banks are likely to cut rates in 2025, they would monitor the impact of policy changes in the US on their growth and financial markets.
  • The global environment is conducive to rate cuts, but their pace would be slower.

 

Outlook for Monetary Policy

  • Factors Favouring Rate Cuts
    • Robust rabi crop leading to ease in food inflation.
    • Stable non-food commodity prices.
  • Limitations on Rate Cuts
    • Domestic growth momentum remains relatively healthy.
    • The global rate-cut cycle is expected to be shallow.

 

Way Forward: Policy Recommendations

  • Given that food prices sway the retail inflation gauge, a new CPI series based on the latest consumption survey could help reassess the importance of food in shaping monetary policy decisions. 
  • Fiscal policy needs to accelerate efforts to limit the structural and climate risks of food prices on headline inflation.
  • Inflation: Inflation remains a concern for the Indian economy. The RBI cannot ignore this given that price stability is its main mandate.
  • Fiscal policy mitigating supply risks can help ease food inflation durably and aid the RBI in balancing inflation with growth objectives.

 

Conclusion

RBI and government needs to balance between growth and inflation. While a robust agricultural output and easing global monetary policies provide room for optimism, structural challenges in food inflation and the broader economy require sustained and coordinated efforts by both monetary and fiscal authorities.

Editorial 2 : Another Step Against TB

Context: How India is doing better in the war against TB

 

Introduction: India pioneered several innovative approaches over the last few years to bring a paradigm shift in TB prevention, diagnosis and treatment.

 

Key Achievements in TB Elimination

  • Findings from the WHO’s Global TB Report 2024 noted a 17.7% decline in TB incidence in India from 2015 to 2023 — double the rate of decline observed globally.
  • India diagnosed 25.1 lakh patients, marking a significant rise in treatment coverage from 59% in 2015 to 85% in 2023.

 

100-Day Campaign

  • On December 7, government is launching a 100-day campaign in 347 high TB burden districts across the country to accelerate our response to fight TB.
  • The initiative reinforces the government’s resolve to identify every TB patient early and proactively reach out to vulnerable populations with timely and quality treatment.
  • Jan Bhagidari: Elected representatives, health practitioners, civil society, corporations, and communities must collaborate to make this campaign a grand success.

 

Nikshay Poshan Yojana (NPY)

  • It is a nutritional support scheme that complements expanded diagnostic efforts and supports a complete recovery of TB patients.
  • Since April 2018, government has disbursed Rs 3,295 crore to 1.16 crore beneficiaries through Direct Benefit Transfer under NPY.
  • The monthly support under the scheme has been doubled from Rs 500 to Rs 1,000 per month from November 2024.

 

Pradhan Mantri TB Mukt Bharat Abhiyaan (PMTBMBA)

  • The Pradhan Mantri TB Mukt Bharat Abhiyaan (PMTBMBA) has not only helped address the challenge of nutrition but also enhanced community mobilisation.
  • It has united various community stakeholders creating a mass movement to increase awareness and to provide nutritional, vocational, and psychological support to TB patients.
  • This government-citizen symphony anchored in the spirit of Jan Bhagidari has inspired 1.75 lakh Nikshay Mitras to provide 21 lakh food baskets to patients across the country.

 

Introduction of New Drugs and Tests

  • Over the years, India has introduced newer drugs such as Bedaquiline and Delamanid to improve treatment success rates.
  • BpaLM: It is a shorter and more effective regimen for patients with drug-resistant variants.
    • While we have a shorter 9–11-month regimen available alongside the conventional 19–20-month regimen, with the BPaLM regimen, patients will now complete treatment in just six months.
  • Molecular Tests: More efficient and accurate diagnostic tools
    • From a few hundred machines in 2014-15, India now has 8,293 molecular diagnostic machines available in all districts.
    • Taking a cue from the Make in India initiative, indigenous molecular tests have been field-tested and introduced.
    • The indigenous molecular tests have received endorsement by the WHO. These initiatives have positioned India as a true leader in global TB response.

 

Conclusion and Way Forward

  • India’s journey toward TB elimination is a testament to its leadership.
  • From pioneering research that has led to advanced diagnostics and treatments, to the introduction of universal social support provisions, India stands at the forefront of the global TB response.
  • The need of the hour is to ensure a massive Jan Bhagidari in the identification, diagnosis, treatment and prevention of TB.
  • The intensified 100-day campaign is another testament to India’s collective commitment to eliminate TB.