Editorial 1 : Road to peace in Myanmar
Introduction: Myanmar has been at war with itself for the past three years. The military coup in February 2021 unleashed a chain of violent conflicts in many parts of the country, resulting in its de facto division into a section where the military government called the State Administration Council (SAC) still rules and another where the Resistance is in charge.
What is the current situation in Myanmar?
- UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres highlighted two alarming trends in Myanmar.
- First, the expansion of conflict in the Rakhine State known for its “pre-existing vulnerabilities and discrimination” creates the danger of further incitement of communal tensions.
- Second, the forcible recruitment of youth into the military under the new conscription law in various regions and states is bound to aggravate the crisis.
- Tom Andrews, UN special rapporteur on the human rights situation in Myanmar, spoke of a fivefold increase in air strikes by the military on its people in the past five months.
- He estimated that 2.7 million people stand displaced, with another 1 million likely to enter this category by the end of 2024 and asserted that 18.6 million people, including six million children, need humanitarian assistance.
- As against these vast needs, the flow of aid is minimal, with aid donors facing logistical challenges in a nation ravaged by conflict.
Is there any chance of reconciliation between the two warring factions?
- Experts agree that given the prevailing animosities, Myanmar’s stakeholders are incapable of finding ways through which de-escalation of violence and delivery and distribution of humanitarian assistance may take place smoothly.
- The SAC and the Resistance are much too locked into a hostile frame to agree on a modus operandi to relieve people’s suffering.
- They need external help which can only come from Myanmar’s ASEAN partners and willing neighbours such as China, India, and possibly Bangladesh.
- The internal and external players, therefore, need to create a mechanism for crafting a programme that helps alleviate people’s hardship.
- One neighbour, Thailand under the new government, is ready to take concrete measures such as the creation of a “humanitarian corridor” inside Myanmar as a pilot project.
Failure of ASEAN’s Five Point Consensus (FPC) to bring normalcy to Myanmar
- Going beyond the imperative need for an early cessation of the fighting, Myanmar’s friends should also suggest a pathway to the nation’s return to normalcy.
- For this purpose, they need to discover a via media between two contrasting positions — the SAC’s insistence on retaining the 2008 constitution and restoration of limited democracy after “controlled” elections, and the Resistance’s vision of a fully federal democratic union with an apolitical military under a new constitution.
- Even before a peace formula is conceived, a pressing need exists to create an innovative mechanism for dialogue among all relevant players.
- ASEAN’s Five Point Consensus (FPC), agreed in April 2021, has failed to deliver, despite its best endeavours.
The conflict reached a state of stalemate and outright victory of one party is unlikely
- The SAC, the initiator of conflict, is now in decline and faces “an existential threat”, claim some observers.
- Others assert that despite its failures and setbacks, it remains a tenacious entity.
- The Resistance reveals a triumphant spirit, although internal divergences and lack of cohesion are viewed as its Achilles heel.
- An outright victory of one party against the other seems unlikely.
- Perhaps neither side can prevail over the other with the help of guns, planes and drones.
- Both need to internalise that they are part of a single nation, and it is their combined duty to work for reconciliation.
- Some argue that Aung San Suu Kyi, who is serving a 33-year long imprisonment holds the key to a possible political solution.
What is at stake for India?
- As a major, interested, and affected neighbour, India can and should certainly help.
- India’s Myanmar experts need to develop a set of practical and pragmatic proposals, infused with an accurate reading of power dynamics, geopolitical play and the country’s history.
- They have a role in advising policymakers in New Delhi as well as shaping the regional approach to resolving the crisis in Myanmar.
- Its aggravation will inevitably threaten regional peace and progress.
- India’s eastern neighbourhood can ill afford that calamity.
Conclusion: The civil war in Myanmar has reached a stalemate. Neither side wants to blink first. For peace, Myanmar needs outside help. Friends, including India, must step in.
Editorial 2 : Goal worth setting
Introduction: In 2013-14, the year before the NDA government came to power, India was the world’s 10th largest economy. At the end of its second term, the country’s ranking has improved to fifth, behind the US, China, Japan and Germany. The Prime Minister has “guaranteed” it would further go up to third, should he get a third term.
How much did India’s GDP rise to reach at 5th spot?
- A closer scrutiny, however, shows that the progress from No 10 to No 5 came on the back of an average annual GDP growth of 5.9 per cent between 2014-15 and 2023-24, below even the 6.8 per cent during the 10 years of the previous Congress-led dispensation.
- Given India’s present GDP of about $3.5 trillion (as against Germany’s $4.4 trillion and Japan’s $4.2 trillion), it needs to grow by hardly 6 per cent annually (and the latter two at their current sub-2 per cent rates) for emerging as the world’s No 3 by 2028.
The third largest economy will still be struggling with raising per capita income
- Becoming the world’s No 3 sounds good; it adds to the country’s geopolitical heft and ability to exert influence at a global scale.
- But from a developmental perspective, what matters really is not the aggregate size of the economy as much as its population’s general standard of living.
- That, in turn, is reflected by the per capita GDP. At just over $2,500, it’s way below China’s $13,000.
- Considering that, in 1990, India’s per capita GDP of $369 was actually higher than China’s $348, it only shows how much distance the latter has traveled over the last three decades.
- If the current and the coming two decades are to be India’s decades, the least it must do is target a quadrupling of the per capita GDP to $10,000 in today’s prices.
- This is consistent with the Modi government’s own vision of a Viksit Bharat or “developed India” by 2047.
- Going by the World Bank’s definition, India is now a “lower-middle income” and China an “upper-middle income” country, with the threshold for “high income” — roughly corresponding to “developed” — at $13,845. China is, in fact, almost there.
Why India needs to emphasize more on raising per capita GDP?
- Quadrupling an average Indian’s income in real terms by 2047 is an aspirational target most would more easily relate to, than a $30-trillion GDP.
- When Prime Minister Modi, in February 2016, gave a call for “doubling farmers’ income by 2022”, it led to more focused policy-making from all concerned departments towards achieving the stated goal.
- A similar target, to raise the standard of living of ordinary Indians, would be worth aiming for — more so when evidence points to headline poverty rates under successive governments coming down significantly.
- Per capita GDP targets, both near and far term, would be good gauges for policymakers seeking to move beyond eliminating poverty.
India can work on multipronged approach to raise per capita GDP by 2047
1. Economic Growth:
- Higher GDP Growth: India needs a sustained GDP growth rate exceeding 7% annually. This can be achieved by:
- Boosting Manufacturing: Strengthening the manufacturing sector to increase its share in GDP is crucial.
- Investment and Credit:
- Increased Private Investment: Encouraging private sector investment through a business-friendly environment will fuel growth.
- Improved Credit Flow: Bridging the credit gap by expanding access to credit for individuals and MSMEs can unlock further economic potential.
2. Human Capital Development:
- Education Reform: The focus should be on revamping the education system to equip the workforce with the skills needed in the modern economy. Implementing the National Education Policy (NEP) effectively is crucial.
- Healthcare: Investing in quality healthcare will improve the overall health of the population, leading to a more productive workforce.
3. Infrastructure and Governance:
- Infrastructure Development: Upgrading physical infrastructure like roads, power, and transportation is essential for efficient economic activity.
- Decentralized Governance: Empowering local governments to deliver essential public services like education, health, and sanitation can improve efficiency and outcomes.
- Ease of Doing Business: Simplifying regulations and streamlining processes can attract domestic and foreign investment.
Conclusion: The target of becoming World No. 3 sounds good. But what matters really is not the aggregate size of the economy as much as the population's general standard of living. A multipronged approach that emphasizes improving the living standard of Indians will be helpful.