Topic 1: Sheikh Hasina again
Introduction: Recently concluded Bangladesh’s parliamentary election saw the victory of incumbent PM Shiekh Hasina’s victory. The world was seeing this election with a bit of scepticism as the opposition in Bangladesh mostly stayed away from the election.
The controversy and the result of the election
- The victory of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League in Bangladesh’s parliamentary election was all but guaranteed after the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), decided to stay away from the polls.
- The party’s leader, Khaleda Zia, is ailing and under house arrest on corruption charges, which her supporters claim to be politically motivated.
- The government had rejected the BNP’s demand for a neutral authority to oversee the polls.
- Zia’s party has accused the Awami League of propping up dummy Opposition candidates and alleged that more than 20,000 BNP members were arrested in the run-up to elections.
- The government has disputed these allegations.
- But a barely 40 per cent turnout in the polls — it was about 80 per cent in 2018 — should be indication enough for the PM that she begins her fourth consecutive term in office in a deeply troubled political landscape.
What worked for and against the incumbent government
- Hasina’s legacy has to a great extent been shaped by Bangladesh’s economic success in the last decade and a half, fuelled by infrastructure, poverty alleviation and energy projects.
- She has also dealt with militancy with a firm hand, often inviting accusations of high-handedness.
- Post-pandemic, however, the country has been hard hit by inflation.
- The taka has depreciated by over 40 per cent against the US dollar and Bangladesh has negotiated loans with the World Bank, IMF and Asian Development Bank.
The West vs Sheikh Hasina
- At least the Western world is already positioning itself – mostly against her.
- The UK’s BBC has described the election as a “one-woman show,” the US’ Associated Press says she “threatens democracy,” while The New York Times, as far back as September 2023, headlined an article that said, “Quietly Crushing a Democracy, Millions on Trial in Bangladesh.”
- On the other end of the spectrum lies Russia – as if to underline the fact that international diplomacy has been split wide open, at least since the Ukraine war – which has openly criticised the West for instigating an “Arab Spring” in Bangladesh.
- Meaning, that according to Moscow, on the pretext of suing for democracy, Western nations are trying to unseat an elected government.
- Some of the charges are startling.
- It seems that a diplomat in the US mission in Dhaka, Matthew Bay, met Jamaat-e-Islami leader Syed Abdullah Muhammad Taher on the US embassy premises, to discuss the political situation in Bangladesh just a couple of months before the polls.
- Already notorious for poor standards of freedom of speech, the Hasina regime is seen to have become more authoritarian in the strained economic circumstances.
- It has been criticised for weaponizing the judiciary and resorting to mass arrests of political opponents.
- Those affiliated with the ruling party — especially its youth wing, the Jubo League — appear to enjoy impunity for violent attacks.
- In the run-up to elections, the US imposed visa restrictions on a large section of Bangladesh’s political class and bureaucracy in order to “restore the democratic system”.
Hasina’s skilful juggling between India and China
- Hasina has skilfully balanced ties with Bangladesh’s powerful neighbours — India and China.
- It has joined the Belt and Road Initiative, attracted Chinese investments in infrastructure projects and is among the major importers of Chinese weapons.
- At the same time, Hasina’s crackdown on anti-India elements has eased Delhi’s security concerns in the East.
- With the situation in Myanmar deteriorating, the partnership between the two countries that share a 4,100 km long border is crucial to peace in South Asia.
- But the Hasina regime must also realise that without meaningful democracy, political stability will remain precarious.
Conclusion: Her fourth term as PM promises stability in Bangladesh, and augurs well for India. But Hasina's flawed record on democracy is a concern.
Topic 2 : Pull back from brink
Introduction: Few would have thought that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Lakshadweep — only the second such visit by an Indian PM to the long-neglected islands — would kick up a tsunami of controversy engulfing relations between India and Maldives, already under considerable strain.
What triggered the existing fallouts?
- It began when three deputy ministers used offensive language against PM Modi’s posts on a social media platform about his trip to Lakshadweep last week, celebrating the natural beauty of the islands and its potential attractions for the Indian tourist.
- As two former presidents — Ibrahim Solih and Mohamed Nasheed — strongly condemned the ministers’ remarks, the incumbent president, Mohamed Muizzu, moved quickly to suspend the three deputy ministers.
- But make no mistake, the sentiment in the tweets represents real hostility against India.
- Having come to power on an anti-India platform in the elections last year, the new government of Maldives has wasted no time in asking Indian military personnel to leave the country and ending the agreement with the Indian navy for a hydrographic survey of its waters.
- Muizzu had ostentatiously chosen to travel to Turkey on his first official visit late last year, is now on a state visit to China and appears confident that he can diminish India’s salience in the island republic.
The hypernationalism led to aggravation of the existing controversy
- While both sides have reasons to manage the fallout from the entirely avoidable episode, it highlights the dangers of hypernationalism for two South Asian neighbours with much at stake in wide-ranging cooperation.
- It is also a reminder to the new rulers of Maldives that small nations must exercise prudence in dealing with their neighbours.
- Needless provocations can trigger consequences that could, in the end, hurt the smaller neighbour a lot more.
- While Delhi’s official reaction has been tough and correct in communicating its outrage through diplomatic channels, India’s thin-skinned social media warriors have made a bad situation worse.
- The managers of these warriors must know that you can’t bully your neighbours into submission; they must also recognise that hypernationalists do more harm to India than to the target of the day.
- Above all, they constrain the freedom of action for Indian diplomacy and alienate many of Delhi’s friends and partners in the neighbourhood.
Indians’ ‘Boycott Maldives’ reaction is self-defeating
- The trending hashtag “boycott Maldives” is self-defeating — China is well-positioned to step in. There are various other sources of tourist inflow into Maldives, including Europe and Russia.
- The social media claim that Lakshadweep is an alternative to Maldives is delusional; India is far from developing the necessary infrastructure in Lakshadweep and connectivity to the islands.
- PM Modi’s visit to the islands was an important first step that requires sustained follow-up action. Boycotting Maldives in any form will only reduce India’s leverage in the islands.
Significance of Maldives for India
Strategic Importance:
- Geopolitical Location: Nestled in the Indian Ocean, the Maldives sits astride key shipping lanes, acting as a strategic gateway between the West and the East. This proximity to India makes it a vital element in ensuring regional maritime security.
- Counterbalancing Influence: China's growing presence in the Indian Ocean has prompted India to strengthen its strategic ties with Maldives. A stable and friendly Maldives serves as a buffer against Chinese influence in the region.
Cultural and Historical Ties:
- Shared Heritage: India and Maldives share deep cultural and historical links, dating back centuries. Both nations have Buddhist and Hindu influences, evident in their languages, customs, and traditions.
- Strong People-to-People Connect: The Maldivian people have close familial and cultural ties with communities in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, India. This fosters a sense of mutual understanding and cooperation.
Economic and Trade Relations:
- Tourism: Maldives is a popular tourist destination for Indians, with its pristine beaches and idyllic resorts attracting millions of visitors annually. This tourism influx contributes significantly to the Maldivian economy.
- Trade and Investment: India is a major trading partner for Maldives, exporting essential goods and commodities like food, medicine, and construction materials. Indian investments in infrastructure projects like the Hanimaadhoo airport have further bolstered economic ties.
Security Cooperation:
- Combating Terrorism and Piracy: Both nations collaborate closely on maritime security, sharing intelligence and conducting joint patrols to combat piracy and terrorism in the Indian Ocean.
- Disaster Relief: India has been a first responder in times of natural disasters in Maldives, providing humanitarian assistance and emergency aid during cyclones and tsunamis.
Conclusion: In diplomacy, hypernationalism sometimes constrains a nation's space to manoeuvre. Both nations need to dial down the rhetoric. Delhi should double down on a firm but patient engagement with the Maldives that will rally friendly forces in the country and remind the ruling party of the dangers of pushing too hard against India.