Editorial 1 : A Hot Winter
Context: Another year, a hotter planet
Introduction: 2024 will be the warmest year on record. November 2024 was the 16th month in a 17-month period when the average global temperature rise was more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-Industrial Revolution period.
Default on Paris Benchmark
- Paris Target: The Paris Pact commits its 196 signatories to keep global heating to below 1.5 degrees to limit the impact of climate disasters.
- With the temperature rise in the first 11 months of 2024 exceeding 1.6 degrees, there will be a default on the Paris benchmark in 2024.
- Implications
- Exceeding the 1.5°C threshold does not immediately breach the Paris Agreement, as it measures compliance over a decade.
- Reversing temperature trends demands sustained, multi-sectoral global action.
El Niño, La Niña, and Climate Patterns
- Expected Cooling Effects of La Niña
- Forecasts for 2024
- Meteorologists anticipated global temperature moderation due to La Niña's cooling effects.
- Initial projections suggested La Niña onset by July or October.
- The Oceanic Niño Index has not consistently dropped to -0.5°C, delaying La Niña confirmation.
- Possibilities
- Weak La Niña in mid-winter 2024–2025.
- Potential onset as late as February 2025.
Impacts of Delayed La Niña
- Affects crop cycles, energy use, and local pollution levels.
- Amplifies unpredictability of extreme weather events.
- Poses challenges for policymakers and forecasting agencies.
Economic Cost of Climate Extremities
- According to Swiss Re Institute Report, extreme weather events in 2024 cost the global economy $320 billion. This figure is 25% higher than the decade’s average.
Mitigation and Adaptation
- Reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
- Enhancing resilience to weather extremes through better infrastructure, early warning systems, and global cooperation.
Policy and Scientific Challenges
- Policymaking Imperatives
- National governments must prioritize adaptation strategies alongside mitigation efforts.
- Climate action must be integrated into economic, agricultural, and energy policies.
- Policymaking Imperatives
- National governments must prioritize adaptation strategies alongside mitigation efforts.
- Climate action must be integrated into economic, agricultural, and energy policies.
Conclusion
Meteorological extremes do not necessarily have to develop into disaster risks. Mitigation of GHG emissions and adaptation to weather vagaries hold the key to a climate-resilient world.
Editorial 2 : After Assad
Context: Regime change in Syria and Middle East after Assad
Introduction: The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime is widely celebrated but the transition raises critical questions about Syria's future governance, regional stability of Middle East.
Assad’s Regime and Dictatorship
- Transformed Syria into a police state controlled by a small elite.
- Suppressed dissent, including the peaceful protests of the Arab Spring in 2011.
- Bashar’s Fall: Came after an 11-day offensive by rebel groups, highlighting the fragility of authoritarian regimes.
- Global Reaction: Limited sympathy for the fall, except among ruling circles in Tehran and Moscow.
Challenges of Transition
- Governance and Pluralism
- Promise of Change: Rebel leaders vow to establish a pluralistic framework respecting Syria’s diversity and minority rights.
- Concerns
- Rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani’s ties to al Qaeda raise fears of Islamist authoritarianism.
- Uncertainty over unity among rebel factions in creating a stable government.
- Domestic Implications: Post-Assad Syria faces significant political and social challenges, including the risk of civil strife and authoritarianism.
Regional and Global Impact
- Winners and Losers
- Losers
- Iran: Loss of Syria disrupts the "axis of resistance" against Israel. End of strategic access to Syria and Lebanon.
- Russia: Risks losing naval and air bases in Syria. Retains some leverage as a UNSC permanent member.
- Winners:
- Turkey: Backed the rebel forces. Aspires to expand influence in Syria and the Levant.
- Israel: Welcomes Assad’s fall but remains wary of extremist groups gaining power.
- Broader Regional Impact: Moderate Arab states (e.g., Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE) oppose the rise of radical Islamist groups, fearing destabilisation.
Implications for India
- Syria under the Assad regime supported India in its disputes with Pakistan including in 2019 over abrogation of Article 370.
- Way Forward
- India must move beyond sentimental ties with the Assad dynasty.
- Focus should be on broader strategic interests in the post-Assad Middle East.
- Recognise the region's evolving dynamics and align policies accordingly.
Conclusion
The fall of the Assad regime presents both opportunities and risks. The world including India must tread cautiously to support a transition that fosters peace and stability in Syria and the broader Middle East.