Editorial 1 : The desperate neighbour
Introduction: Seven security personnel have lost their lives to terror in Jammu and Kashmir in the last two days, close on the heels of four back-to-back terror attacks in June. Pakistan’s involvement has been reported. These tragic incidents are a reminder that after over four decades of suffering Pakistan-sponsored terror, and despite numerous peace initiatives and 10 years of avowed muscularity from us, our goal to put an end to it remains unaccomplished.
The attack is a wake-up call for establishments in India
- The attacks have brutally shattered the complacency of a section of our strategic community and in the minds of the public over Pakistan’s relative restraint on its terror apparatus in recent years.
- The intractable internal challenges faced by the Pakistani state, especially since 2021, and the changed geopolitical dynamics, have been seen as signs of its impending collapse.
- Though sporadic Pakistan-sponsored terror in Jammu and Kashmir never ceased, the sense of complacency has also been buttressed by a tendency among some to overestimate the impact of our muscular approach, including revocation of the special status of J&K, in largely containing, if not putting an end to, our Pakistan problem.
The collapse of Pakistan is a day dream, which Indian policy makers must stay away from
- Pakistan is nowhere close to a collapse.
- No major country desires this outcome in a highly volatile space with a nuclear arsenal.
- There has been no sign of the Pakistani establishment abnegating terrorism.
- It has been merely calibrating and adapting its terror activity by, inter alia, taking out the notorious faces of its terror machine in response to the Financial Action Task Force scrutiny and our security/punitive measures.
- The revocation of the special status of J&K has not put an end to the Pakistan dimension of our problem there.
- Pakistan’s questioning of the accession of J&K to India preceded the introduction of Article 370 in our Constitution and has outlasted its revocation.
- The terror attacks are an attempt to stay relevant to the situation in J&K and queer the pitch for the assembly election.
The public posturing of India and Pakistan has made possibility of talks unsustainable
The Indian posturing
- The slogan “terror and talks cannot go together” tapped successfully into the deep and justified anger of the Indian public at Pakistan’s conduct in the run-up to our 2014 election.
- It was not followed as a policy uniformly.
- Sporadic open and behind-the-scenes bilateral contacts appear to have continued at least till early 2017; there are reports of quiet talks yet again towards the end of 2020, leading to restoration of the LoC ceasefire in February 2021.
- If there has been any additional quiet contact, we will not know.
- In any case, such contacts are useful in dealing with a complex and emotionally charged relationship.
- However, “terror and talks cannot go together” has become a buzzword in the public’s mind, thereby restricting the government’s elbow room for diplomacy with Pakistan.
Pakistan’s grandstanding
- There is a much bigger problem on the Pakistani side.
- It results not only from the traditional adversarial posture of its establishment, but also the tight corner that the then Imran Khan government, groping for an answer to India’s August 2019 move, pushed Pakistan into by suspending trade and calling upon India to reverse the move for any bilateral engagement.
- The sharp political polarisation in recent years, with an incarcerated but popular Khan pitted against the army-led establishment, has made a climbdown from this stand extremely difficult without a face saver.
- Thus, trade with India remains banned in spite of the pressure from a large segment of the industry to resume it.
- PML(N) leader Nawaz Sharif sent a conciliatory message on PM Modi’s re-election.
- But he is not in charge and, in any case, the final say on the matter is with the army.
- There is little indication, at least in public, of the army chief Asim Munir’s thinking on the subject.
Closure of political channels left us dependent on security apparatus
- This situation leaves us dependent entirely on our security apparatus, with our diplomatic machinery focused essentially on isolating Pakistan internationally (with limited success) and responding in kind to its anti-India rhetoric at international forums.
- The security-centric approach has obvious limitations in obtaining an enduring change in Pakistan’s behaviour towards us, especially in view of the growing China-Pakistan military nexus and the nuclear dimension.
- Therefore, Pakistan could be expected to continue with its terror attacks in J&K.
The Pakistan policy of Modi 3.0: A complex task
- On assuming charge of his post a second time, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar listed a solution to Pakistan’s years-old cross-border terrorism among the issues to be focused on by the new government.
- We will have to wait to see what steps the government takes, in addition to those in the last decade, to put an end to this menace.
- In the face of continued Pakistani terror, further strengthening of our counter-terror machinery, combined with a punitive approach, is an obvious answer.
- However, any punitive approach must be carefully calibrated in order not to result in cycles of tit-for-tat violence.
- Moreover, even as our security forces valiantly deal with the Pakistani threat, their effort must be supplemented by our diplomacy in continuing to look for opportunities to reduce the tension between the two countries.
- After all, besieged with multiple internal problems and a volatile western frontier, Pakistan could do with a calmer eastern frontier.
Conclusion: In the face of continued Pakistan-sponsored terror as seen in J&K, strengthening of counter-terror machinery and a punitive approach is necessary. However, they must aim to avoid cycles of retributory violence.
Editorial 2 : Jobs, still
Introduction: Amidst growing concerns over inadequate employment opportunities despite the economy growing at a fast clip, new estimates from the RBI suggest a pick-up in job growth.
What is RBI’s KLEMS database
- The KLEMS database is an important economic tool maintained by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
- KLEMS stands for Capital (K), Labor (L), Energy (E), Materials (M), and Services (S).
- It is designed to measure productivity and growth at the industry level in the Indian economy.
- The RBI developed the India KLEMS database in collaboration with academic institutions.
- It is part of a larger international effort to create standardized productivity databases across countries.
- The database covers 27 industries in the Indian economy.
- It provides data from 1980-81 onwards, updated annually.
The latest findings of the report
- As per the central bank’s KLEMS database, employment in the country grew by 4.67 crore in 2023-24.
- However, these are provisional estimates and they do not provide the disaggregated sector-wise job numbers for the latest year.
- In recent years for which the disaggregated data is available (2017-18 to 2022-23), however, much of the increase in employment has occurred in agriculture, followed by construction and trade — sectors marked by low levels of productivity.
- As per the database, value added per worker, a measure of labour productivity, is the lowest in the case of agriculture, and in the case of construction and trade is substantially lower than in the most productive sectors of the economy.
- This low level of productivity has implications for workers’ wages.
The labour force participation rate is rising but in low productive jobs
- In recent years there has been a sharp pick up in the labour force participation rate as seen in data from the periodic labour force surveys.
- Much of this increase was driven by women joining the labour market in greater numbers.
- Worryingly, a sizable number of these new entrants are engaged in self-employment, as helpers in household enterprises.
- This indicates the absence of more productive, more remunerative jobs.
- Alongside, data from the recently conducted survey of unincorporated sector enterprises affirms that a sizable section of the labour force continues to be engaged in a low productive informal sector.
- In 2022-23, the number of unincorporated enterprises or informal sector firms stood at 6.5 crore and roughly 11 crore workers continue to be engaged in these establishments.
- In such firms, value added per worker is only a fraction of that in the larger formal firms.
The inadequate high productive employment is cause of concern
- The issue of inadequate creation of more productive forms of non-farm employment has been at the heart of India’s development story.
- The State of Working India 2023 report had pointed towards the weak link between long run GDP and non-farm employment growth.
- While successive governments have taken steps to facilitate job creation, progress has been patchy.
- With growing capital intensity of production, even in the labour-intensive sectors, this will become even more challenging.
- The India Employment Report 2024 had noted that “the production process has increasingly become capital-intensive and labour-saving”.
- It had also pointed out that the skill intensity of employment had increased, “which was contrary to the labour market needs of the country”.
Conclusion: The RBI database findings give a glimmer of hope to government, who is facing criticism over lack of employment for working population. But a more nuanced look shows that productivity remains stagnant amid rise in employment. Ensuring that growth translates to more productive job opportunities is the foremost challenge before the government.