11 April 2023 : The Indian Express

Editorial 1: EL Niño and Monsoon

Context:

India has had four consecutive years of good monsoons and overall rainfall from 2019 to 2022.
In these four years, the country as a whole received an average area-weighted rainfall of 1,268 millimetres (mm) annually and 933.1 mm over the four-month southwest monsoon season (June-September).
By contrast, the preceding five years from 2014 to 2018 registered an average annual rainfall of just 1,072.1 mm and 812.4 mm during the southwest monsoon.
The surplus precipitation – more than the “normal” during the last four years has helped deliver higher agricultural growth, relative to the previous period that recorded poor rain in three (2014, 2015 and 2018) out of the five years.

What is La Niña:

La Niña basically refers to an abnormal cooling of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean waters off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru.
Such cooling (SSTs falling 0.5 degrees Celsius or more below a 30-year average for at least five successive three-month periods) is a result of strong trade winds blowing west along the equator, taking warm water from South America towards Asia.
The warming of the western equatorial Pacific, then, leads to increased evaporation and concentrated cloud-formation activity around that region, whose effects may percolate to India as well.
La Niña, like El Niño, is a weather pattern that can occur in the Pacific Ocean every few years.
As, In a normal year, winds along the equator push warm water westward. Warm water at the surface of the ocean blows from South America to Indonesia. As the warm water moves west, cold water from the deep rises to the surface. This cold water ends up on the coast of South America.
During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.

The periodic warming and cooling of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean — a phenomenon described as El Niño Southern Oscillations, or ENSO — is known to trigger widespread changes in atmospheric conditions, and has a major influence on global weather patterns, including the Indian monsoon.

The most recent Oceanic Niño Index or ONI value — a three-month running-average SST deviation from the normal in the east-central equatorial Pacific — was minus 0.4 degrees Celsius for January-March 2023. Since La Niña is characterised by a negative ONI exceeding or equal to minus 0.5 degrees
it means that the so-called ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) cycle has entered a “neutral” phase.

The El Niño threat

While La Niña is associated with good rainfall in India, this isn’t the case with El Niño – the opposite “warm” phase of ENSO.
During El Niño, the trade winds weaken or even reverse: Instead of blowing from east (South America) to west (Indonesia), they could turn into westerlies.
As the winds blow from the west to east, they cause the masses of warm water to move into the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The rise in SSTs there, thus, produces increased rainfall along western Latin America, the Caribbean and US Gulf Coast, while depriving Southeast Asia, Australia and India of convective currents.
The ENSO cycle, as already pointed out, is currently in the “neutral” state. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s most recent update, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to “persist through the Northern Hemisphere early summer [of] 2023”.
In other words, at least till June. However, “a transition to El Niño is favoured by July-September 2023”, with its chances “increasing through the fall (September-November)”.

Evaluating the likely impact

In the Indian context, La Niña is associated with good rainfall during the monsoon season. This is the opposite of El Niño which is known to suppress monsoon rainfall.
Thus, a continued spell of La Niña could lead to expectation of another year of good, or normal, rainfall during the monsoon. Until now, the monsoon seasons this year has produced 7% more rain compared to normal. Last year, the seasonal rainfall was almost 100%.
But, even though powerful, ENSO condition is only one of the several factors affecting monsoon rainfall in India. There is no one-on-one correlation between the ENSO condition and the amount of rainfall.
- Also, the influence of ENSO is at a macro level. There are wide variations in rainfall at the local level, which are getting exacerbated by climate change.
The continuance of La Niña further into 2023 is not bad news from the Indian standpoint. But it is not the same for many other regions where La Niña has very different impacts.
In most parts of the United States, for example, La Niña is associated with very dry winters. In Australia and Indonesia, and generally in the tropical region, La Niña is expected to bring more rainfall.

Negative consequences observed due to La Niña :

The widespread drought in the United States and flooding in eastern Australia this year could have been a result of the prolonged La Niña. The excessive rainfall in Pakistan, which is experiencing its worst flooding disaster, can also be blamed in part on La Niña.
World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said the worsening drought in the Horn of Africa and southern United States carried the “hallmarks of La Niña”, as did the “above average rainfall in southeast Asia and Australasia”. It said that the persistence of La Niña was most likely to result in a worsening of the drought in Africa.

Climate change link

As per the, metrologist, “Every unusual weather event these days is attributed to climate change, but science is not conclusive right now (on the linkage of ENSO events with global warming),”
The occurrences of El Niño or La Niña are not very regular. Sometimes they emerge every two years, at other times there has been a gap of even seven years. Historical records do not go very far in the past. As a result, the natural variability of ENSO is not understood very clearly. And when the natural variability itself is not clear, the influence of global warming is difficult to quantify.
As, there have been suggestions that climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of El Niño and La Niña episodes, but the question is not entirely settled.
- A part of the reason is the fact that trade winds play a very important role in triggering ENSO events. And the changes in the strength of trade winds are not easily explained by global warming.
During La Niña years, the colder surfaces allow the oceans to absorb more heat from the atmosphere. Consequently, the air temperatures tend to go down, producing a cooling effect. However, as pointed out by the WMO, this is not enough to reverse or neutralize the impacts of global warming.
Its (La Niña’s) cooling influence is temporarily slowing the rise in global temperatures but it will not halt or reverse the long-term warming trend.

Editorial 2: AAP now national party; How is a ‘national party’ in India defined

Recent Context:

Recently, The Election Commission recognised the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as a national party, while revoking that status of the All-India Trinamool Congress, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Communist Party of India (CPI).
The Commission also revoked the state party status granted to RLD in Uttar Pradesh, BRS in Andhra Pradesh, PDA in Manipur, PMK in Puducherry, RSP in West Bengal and MPC in Mizoram.
The BJP, Indian National Congress, CPI(M), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), National People’s Party (NPP) and the AAP are the remaining national parties now.

What is a national party?

The name suggests that a national party would be one that has a presence ‘nationally’, as opposed to a regional party whose presence is restricted to only a particular state or region.
National parties are usually India’s bigger parties, such as the Congress and BJP. However, some smaller parties, like the communist parties, are also recognised as national parties.
Some parties, despite being dominant in a major state — such as the DMK in Tamil Nadu, BJD in Odisha, YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh, RJD in Bihar, or TRS in Telangana — and having a major say in national affairs, remain regional parties
A certain stature is sometimes associated with being a national party, but this does not necessarily translate into having a lot of national political presence.

How is a national party defined?

The ECI has laid down the technical criterion for a party to be recognised as a national party.
A party may gain or lose national party status from time to time, depending on the fulfilment of these laid-down conditions.
As per the ECI’s Political Parties and Election Symbols, 2019 handbook, a political party would be considered a national party if:
1. it is ‘recognised’ in four or more states; or
2. if its candidates polled at least 6% of total valid votes in any four or more states in the last Lok Sabha or Assembly elections and has at least four MPs in the last Lok Sabha polls;
3. if it has won at least 2% of the total seats in the Lok Sabha from not less than three states.
To be recognised as a state party, a party needs:

at least 6% vote-share in the last Assembly election and have at least 2 MLAs; or
have 6% vote-share in the last Lok Sabha elections from that state and at least one MP from that state; or
at least 3% of the total number of seats or three seats, whichever is more, in the last Assembly elections; or
at least one MP for every 25 members or any fraction allotted to the state in the Lok Sabha; or
have at least 8% of the total valid votes in the last Assembly election or Lok Sabha election from the state.

Where does the AAP fit into this scheme?

The AAP is in power with big majorities — and very large vote shares — in Delhi and Punjab. In the Goa Assembly elections in March last year, it received 6.77% of the vote.
This meant that going into the Gujarat-Himachal elections towards the end of 2022, the party already fulfilled the criteria for recognition as a state party in three states.
It then required 6% of the vote in the Assembly elections in either Himachal or Gujarat to be recognised in a fourth state — which would qualify it for recognition as a national party.

Benefits/ Facilities to National Party are as follows;

Recognition as a national or a State party ensures that the election symbol of that party can't be used by any other political party in polls across India.
Recognized 'State' and 'National' party requires only one proposer to file nomination.
The recognized 'state' and National Parties are given two sets of electoral rolls free of cost by the Election Commission. In addition to this the candidates contesting on the ticket of National or state party get a copy of the electoral roll free of cost during the general elections.
The National parties receive land or building from the government to establish their party office.
National parties can have upto 40 star campaigners while other can have upto 20 star campaigners. The expenditure incurred on the travelling and other expenses of star campaigners is not included in the election expenditure of the party candidate.
National Parties get the time slot on the national and state television & Radio to address the people and convey their message to the mass people

Conclusion:

Political parties are essential institutions of democracy. By competing in elections parties offer citizens a choice in governance, and while in opposition they can hold governments accountable.
Therefore, Recognition of a party as national party will provide , advantages of national party which will help in improving the accountability and transparency in the current government through debate, discussion and support.

11 Apr 2023 : The Indian Express