Editorial 1 : Russia razor’s edge
Introduction: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s successful visit to Russia has once again demonstrated India’s ability to walk the geopolitical equivalent of a razor’s edge and give everyone something to cheer about while providing stability to ties with a consequential partner.
The visit was being seen in different perspective
How idealist saw the PM’s visit?
- The proponents of the bilateral relationship will refer to the warm words Modi had for Russia and President Vladimir Putin: The synergy of the political vision of the world; the charting of new areas of economic and scientific cooperation, and the slew of agreements that will open the path to reaching a trade turnover of $100 billion by 2030.
The spoilers saw it differently
- Those who would rather see India and Russia drift apart will point to the frank words of the PM on Ukraine and the lack of significant military purchases.
- The PM’s formulations on Ukraine — “the death of innocent children causes great pain”, the solution to the war in Ukraine “cannot be found on the battlefield” and that “India is on the side of peace” and would do everything possible to achieve this peace — will echo across media for a long time.
Although the truth lies in between both the views
- In today’s geopolitical scenario, the visit cannot be confined to the bilateral context.
- It will be seen as New Delhi’s emphatic endorsement of strong ties with Moscow despite the fighting in Ukraine, concerns about the Kremlin’s growing ties with Beijing and Western pressures to de-couple from Russia.
- India and Russia also share the goal of ushering in a multi-polar world.
India was able to view its reservation on Ukraine with Russia
- On Ukraine, PM Modi managed to convince the Kremlin to discharge all Indians in the Russian armed forces and assist them in getting back home.
- It is estimated that 30 to 40 Indians, four of whom have reportedly been killed, are currently performing various tasks with the Russian armed forces.
- Additionally, India and Russia agreed that the Ukraine conflict had to be resolved peacefully “through dialogue and diplomacy… in accordance with international law and on the basis of the UN Charter in its entirety and totality”.
- Getting Russia to agree to this formulation in the joint statement doesn’t mean that India will immediately throw itself into mediation mode.
- Still, this wording could be the basis on which Moscow and West-backed Kyiv could be nudged to the negotiation table.
The growing closeness between Russia and China would have featured in the talks
- Moscow’s growing closeness with Beijing undoubtedly figured in the informal talks Modi had with Putin over dinner.
- During the discussions, Modi would have tried to gauge whether there has been any change in Moscow’s traditional position of neutrality in India-China ties.
- While the content of the Modi-Putin chat on China is unlikely to come into the public domain for some time, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov’s recent utterances on the subject suggest that there is no change in its long-standing stance.
- When referring to the India-China border clashes, at the recent Primakov Readings, Lavrov said that Russia looks at, “with understanding”, India’s current views on talks with China.
- Similarly, Putin would have sought an understanding of India’s growing relationship with the US and would have most probably been reassured that New Delhi would not allow ties with Washington to impinge on Indo-Russia relations.
The talks on bilateral trade
- On the bilateral front, the leaders would have spent considerable time discussing ways of boosting trade, which has been considerably hampered by the wide-ranging Western sanctions on Russia.
- Paradoxically, despite the war and related sanctions, India and Russia trade has grown exponentially from the barely $10 billion before February 2022 to $65.7 billion in the last financial year.
- The two sides traded goods worth $17.5 billion in the first quarter of this year, suggesting that last year’s figures are likely to be exceeded.
The growing imbalance of trade in favour of Russia is concerning
- This rapid growth is attributable to the massive spurt in the purchase of Russian oil, which was being sold at discounted rates following the imposition of sanctions.
- The manifold growth in trade also brought new problems — payments and trade imbalance.
- The need to avoid sanctions on payments to Russia has led to the revival of rupee-rouble, which now accounts for nearly 60 per cent of payments.
- But the balance of trade is massively in Russia’s favour, amounting currently to over $50 billion.
- If adequate measures are not taken soon, this is likely to increase as energy purchases by India are likely to grow in the future.
What came out of the visit?
- A perusal of the joint statement issued at the end of the visit hints at possible new payment mechanisms and identifies a whole range of new areas — agriculture, automobiles — which could be growth areas for Indian exports.
- The two sides have also agreed to intensify efforts on maritime and land connectivity projects — International North-South Transport corridor, the Chennai-Vladivostok and Arctic Ocean Northern maritime corridors — among others.
- While details are sparse, the joint statement suggests that the interruptions in the flow of military spares and delays in weapons platform deliveries are to be addressed primarily through the setting up of production units in India, probably under the ‘Make in India’ initiative.
Conclusion: Given the above, it does not appear that the India-Russia relationship is in “terminal decline” as suggested by some commentators. On the contrary, the Modi-Putin dialogue indicates that efforts are being made to make bilateral ties more resilient, considering the current geopolitical realities and the limitations of both countries.
Editorial 2 : It’s heating up
Introduction: The average global temperature between July 2023 and June 2024 was the highest on record, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service’s latest bulletin.
About European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S):
The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) is a key component of the EU’s Earth observation program.
- Purpose: C3S provides comprehensive climate information to support European adaptation and mitigation policies.
- Establishment: It was implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Commission.
- Main functions:
- Monitoring and analyzing climate change
- Providing climate data and projections
- Supporting policy-making in climate change adaptation and mitigation
- Data sources: C3S uses satellite and in-situ (ground-based, airborne, and seaborne) observations, as well as climate models.
- Key services:
- Climate Data Store: Provides free access to climate data and tools
- Sectoral Information System: Tailors climate information for specific sectors
- Evaluation and Quality Control: Ensures high-quality and reliable data
What are the findings?
- The agency, among the World Meteorological Organisation’s key sources of climate data, has revealed that in the past 12 months, the planet was 1.64 degrees Celsius hotter than in the fossil fuel era.
- The findings do not immediately mean that the world has defaulted on the Paris Climate Pact’s 1.5 degrees threshold — that target is measured in terms of decadal averages and not yearly temperature.
- Last month was the Earth’s hottest June on record.
- The onset of La Nina might bring relief to people in several parts of the world.
- Nevertheless, there are enough reasons to see the EU agency’s data as a continuing shift in global temperatures.
- The “temporary” breaches of the 1.5-degrees target over the past two years are warnings to brace for a warmer world and bolster adaptation mechanisms.
The resilience to climate change must be strengthened
- Reducing GHG emissions and limiting the amount of warming has so far been the prime focus of climate policymaking.
- However, mitigation targets have historically been inadequate and the global community has never agreed on who shoulders the greater burden of decarbonisation.
- At the same time, it is increasingly becoming evident that even a decimal-point increase in global warming makes extreme weather events more intense and frequent.
- Last year, the IPCC’s Synthesis Report warned that measures to build resilience are “largely small-scale, reactive and incremental with most focusing on near-term risks”.
- The report underlined the need to weather-proof agriculture, secure people’s livelihoods, protect the vulnerable from rising seas and rivers and strengthen healthcare systems.
The impact of temperature rise on Indian context
- In 2021, the New Delhi-based Council for Energy, Environment and Water’s study revealed that more than 80 per cent of India’s population is vulnerable to climate disasters, and most regions have low adaptive capacities.
- India does have a climate adaptation plan.
- But the toll taken every year by landslides, floods and heat waves underscores that much needs to be done to secure the vulnerable.
- Despite advancements, India’s weather reporting system finds it difficult to keep pace with climate-related complexities.
- The infrastructure of even the metros like Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru struggles to cope with extreme rainfall episodes.
- Like most parts of the world, India’s climate adaptation project remains a top-down endeavour.
Conclusion: In regular breaches of 1.5-degree Celsius Paris Pact target warnings for a warmer world. It’s time that policymakers appreciated that climate change is a global phenomenon that cannot overlook local solutions.