Topic 1 : Securing the sea lanes
Introduction: We are not far from India’s independence centenary. The country will also be the world’s third richest nation in terms of GDP. What kind of armed forces India will have after 30 years from now onwards should be decided by today itself.
What is happening in the sea line of communication today?
- The vital sea lanes of the country are in peril.
- Shipping companies are reluctant to use the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
- Insurance rates for cargo have skyrocketed, making both imports and exports costlier, owing to the indiscriminate attacks on merchant shipping by the Houthis operating from Yemen.
- The safety of sea lanes is a general public good, and yet only the US and the UK have retaliated against the Houthis.
India’s response to the current crisis in Red Sea
- India, after which the ocean on which all this occurs is named, is in a defensive posture with naval ships merely tasked with anti-piracy patrols.
- This will hardly dissuade the Houthis, much less punish them for interfering with the general world order.
- In the years to come, the possibility of having to fight and win a naval battle will gradually recede.
- Our two existing aircraft carriers are essentially sea control ships, built to win naval battles by conferring air dominance over the ocean.
- Only the US, and increasingly the Chinese, have aircraft carriers that can project power and influence political decisions ashore by operating near troublesome shores.
The significance of aircraft carriers in geostrategy
- Today, we have the chance to build, buy or acquire a true aircraft carrier, capable of operating 70 to 80 strike aircraft or five squadrons.
- When a carrier of this nature is present off the shores of a country, decision-makers in the capital are constrained in their freedom to decide what options are open to them.
- A classic instance of this strategy is the presence of the American carrier USS Gerald Ford off Lebanon, while the Israelis were attacking Gaza.
- The US, without firing a shot, kept Hezbollah from interfering and at the same time deterred Tehran, at whose bidding the Hezbollah operate.
New Delhi’s disadvantaged position
- New Delhi was aware that what the Houthis were doing damaged the national vital interests of India and its maritime trade.
- New Delhi was also aware that the Houthis would not dare take such a major step without the blessing of the Ayatollahs in Tehran.
- India’s External Affairs Minister quite rightly made a courageous and bold journey to discuss matters with Teheran.
- There, he stressed the cooperative enterprises between Iran and India and mentioned the aggression by the Houthis.
- Now consider how much more effective the EAM’s trip to Tehran would have been if simultaneously, a large Indian aircraft carrier was operating off Aden.
- That would have been a classic instance of the use of navies as instruments of state policy — mainly foreign policy.
India’s future defence budget and issues related to them
- In 2047, India’s GDP would be in the region of $ 30 trillion.
- The defence budget of that at 2 per cent would be approximately $600 billion or roughly what the US defence budget is today.
- The Army’s share of that amount at the present 60 per cent would be $360 billion.
- Would anyone contend that the major portion of $360 billion is spent on keeping 6,00,000 soldiers guarding the Himalayan heights?
- There are similar questions for the Air Force and Navy.
- Will the Air Force with a budget of $150 billion continue to issue a doctrine that speaks of prioritising territorial air defence?
- Will the Navy be kept stunted by limiting it to 40,000-tonne aircraft carriers?
The questions before the defence planners of India
- The CDS should be tasked with some kind of future planning.
- The world’s third most powerful nation will be a regional power guaranteeing the safety of small nations in the Indian Ocean and South Asia.
- A beginning can be made by permitting the Indian Navy a true power projection aircraft carrier of about 80,000 tonnes.
- The PLA Navy has just commissioned its third carrier of 80,000 tonnes with three electro-magnetic catapults.
- No doubt there will be more in the pipeline.
Conclusion: Beijing is angling for a direct land route to the Bay of Bengal through Myanmar, taking advantage of the insurgency there, in which case we will lose our Malacca advantage. Without an Indian carrier force, we may well be overwhelmed in our home waters.
Topic 2 : After the poll
Introduction: There is no end to the political tragedy of Pakistan, with yet another election manipulated by its army ending in a deliberately engineered stalemate. There is political uncertainty in Pakistan about who is going to form a government.
The Pak Army’s interference in elections
- As in the 2018 election — which saw a hung national assembly and the army’s construction of a majority in favour of Imran Khan — Pakistan’s army chief, General Asim Munir now directs the construction of a new ruling coalition.
- But the electoral process under Gen Munir has become an even bigger farce than before, thanks to brazen rigging before and after polling.
- The Pakistan army’s new model of a “hybrid” government — in which the GHQ in Rawalpindi has an expansive role in governing the polity and economy — failed to deliver after the 2018 elections.
- This time, the puppet government installed by Gen Munir will have even less credibility.
The Imran Khan vs Army Saga continues
- At the heart of the problem has been the deepening contradiction between the massive popularity of Imran Khan and the army’s determination to destroy his party and persona.
- Having built up Imran Khan as the alternative to the traditional leadership, the army was upset with Imran’s attempt to strike out on his own and sought to bring him down.
- Despite handing him long sentences for corruption, leaking state secrets, and adultery, and barring his party (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) from contesting the elections, Imran-backed independents have gained the largest plurality of seats in the National Assembly.
- Without the alleged rigging during the counting of votes, it is entirely plausible that Imran Khan would have got a two-thirds majority in the Assembly.
- As it put down Imran Khan, the army facilitated the return of exiled Nawaz Sharif, a three-term prime minister who was ousted from power in 2017 on corruption charges.
- Yet, it has also been clear the army will not allow Nawaz Sharif a free hand to run the country.
- His Pakistan Muslim League has emerged as the largest single party, but behind the PTI-backed independents.
- The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has also won a significant number of seats.
What will be the way forward for Pakistan?
- By engineering a fractured mandate — the PTI knocked out, and the PML cut down to size, Gen Munir will have a big say in the formation of the next government, in which no civilian leader can threaten the army’s dominance over the polity and its preferences in policy-making.
- Nawaz Sharif has claimed the right to form the new government and has appealed to other parties to join him.
- The next few days will see intense bargaining between PML and PPP under the supervision of the army to structure the new coalition and the distribution of the fishes and loaves of government.
- But by keeping Imran Khan locked up and the PTI out of power in a rigged process, it is not clear how long the new government might last.
- In the near term, the big question is what Gen Munir could do with a pliable but politically illegitimate government under him in addressing the challenges facing the nation.
- These include unstable borders, the return of violent religious extremism, and a tottering economy.
- Going by the army’s historical record, there is no reason to hold one’s breath.
Conclusion: By keeping Imran Khan locked up and PTI out of power in a rigged process, General Munir will have a tough decision to make about how to form a pliable government and maintain political stability going forward.