Editorial 1 : Terror in Reasi
Introduction: The terror incidence in Reasi, UT of J&K showed that militancy in Kashmir is far from over. The timing and the place of incidence raise serious question on the security situation in Jammu and Kashmir.
Government’s claim on the militancy in J&K
- In January, Home Minister Amit Shah flagged the decline in terrorist incidents in Jammu and Kashmir — they were down, he said, by 66 per cent since the abrogation of Article 370.
- Two months later, in his first visit to the Valley since the abrogation of Article 370, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke of a heartening rise of tourism in J&K.
- Higher voter turnouts in most parts of the Union Territory in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections added to the stirrings of hope and optimism.
The ground reality regarding militancy in J&K
- Now, a terrorist attack on a bus carrying pilgrims, on the day PM Modi and his council of ministers were being sworn-in in Delhi, has underscored the fragility of peace.
Why terrorist attack in Raesi is a big concern for security establishments?
- Reasi is a district where militancy has had a relatively small imprint.
- The last time terrorists struck in the region was in May 2022, when a bomb attack killed four Vaishno Devi pilgrims and injured more than 20.
- Reasi, along with Rajouri and Poonch, was a hotbed of militancy in the 1990s.
- Subsequently, the three districts in Jammu seemed to have contained the insurgency, until 2021, when terrorists attacked an army patrol in Poonch killing nine soldiers.
- In the past three years, terror attacks in Rajouri and Poonch have killed 38 soldiers and 11 civilians.
The current shift in terrorists’ tactics
- The strengthening of the counter-infiltration grid in the Kashmir Valley could be a possible reason for a shift in terrorists’ actions towards these Jammu districts.
- However, unlike Rajouri and Poonch, Reasi is not close to the LoC.
- The pressure from security forces in the two districts, where terrorism has raised its head again since 2021, could have forced the militants to search for a new battleground.
- This development poses new security concerns.
- The Pir Panjal range, which separates Kashmir from Jammu, runs through the three districts.
- Passes in the range provide seasonal access to PoK and the Pir Panjal’s difficult terrain and dense forests allow the militants escape routes as well as launchpads for the attacks.
- The Reasi strike testifies to this mode of operation — militants reportedly hiding in a forest ambushed the bus carrying pilgrims.
The metamorphism of LeT into TRF
- After the conditions imposed by the FATF in Pakistan in recent years, terrorist outfits such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) have often used proxies to avoid international scrutiny.
- The Resistance Front (TRF), one such group, has reportedly claimed responsibility for Sunday’s attack.
- The outfit’s presence in J&K is borne out by the UT police’s records.
- Its data for 2022 shows that most of the militants killed in J&K belonged to either the LeT or TRF — an indication of the persistence of some of the clandestine networks, developed in the past 30 years.
- Historically, however, insurgency in the Jammu region has not been sustained for long because it lacked local support.
- In fact, in July 2022, Reasi residents had overpowered LeT militants and handed them over to security forces.
Conclusion: After Reasi attack, it is time to redraw the red lines. The Centre must step up its vigil, even as it moves towards honouring its commitment to holding assembly elections in J&K.
Editorial 2 : A reboot at G7
Introduction: In his first trip abroad during his third term as prime minister, Narendra Modi will attend the summit of the leading Western nations — the so-called Group of Seven — in Fasano, Italy. The trip will be significant as it is happening just after Indian election and at a time when world is divided into two broad groups.
The legacy of Modi 1.0 and 2.0
- A significant improvement in the relations with the US and Europe is one of the more important legacies of Modi’s first 10 years in office.
- The PM will now have a chance to reconnect and reboot the relations with the leaders of the West at the meeting of the G7 which is marking its 50th anniversary this year.
- The G7 summit will also showcase the growing conflict between the West on the one hand and the Sino-Russian alliance on the other.
- This presents major new opportunities as well as challenges to Indian diplomacy.
- Early next month, Modi will travel to Kazakhstan to join the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
- He will look to engage with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The challenge of Modi 3.0
- Managing India’s conflict with China and its cooperation with Russia while expanding ties with the West is likely to test Indian diplomacy in the coming weeks and months amidst the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and mounting military tensions between Beijing and its neighbours in the Western Pacific.
- India, which has been a regular invitee to the G7 gatherings in the last few years, has a stake in developing deeper collaboration with the institutions of the so-called “collective West”.
- As it confronts more demanding challenges on several global fronts, it is in the interest of the West to draw India into the structures of global governance driven by the G7.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's Role
- Developed a strong political rapport with PM Modi.
- Pushed for transformation of Italy-India ties.
- Hosting the G7 summit as a forum for rebooting India’s diplomacy.
Meloni’s rising Influence in Europe
- Emerged as a significant European leader.
- Political stock risen with her party's success in European Parliament polls.
PM Miloni: PM Modi’s Western Interlocutors
- Appreciate the successful conclusion of India's electoral process.
- Note the significance of Modi’s re-election.
- Acknowledge India's democratic mechanisms despite Modi’s reduced mandate.
Western nations and their Relations with Non-Democracies
- West loves non-democracies, dictatorships.
- U.S. relationships with Pakistan army and Chinese Communist Party as examples.
- Western strategic-economic interests in India remain regardless of election outcomes.
- India's competitive politics and democracy reinforce structural convergence with the West.
- West will now at least tone down its criticism of democratic backsliding in India.
Italy’s Focus at the G7 Summit
- Engaging with Africa and the Mediterranean.
- Basis for regional engagement between Delhi and Rome, and India and the G7.
- Policy focuses on connections between Mediterranean Europe, Arabia, and Africa.
G7 and the Global South
- Italy keen on restructuring G7-Global South relations, which is a major priority for India as well.
- Meloni invited leaders from Algeria, Argentina, Brazil, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Turkey, and UAE.
- PM Modi will reconnect with familiar leaders and meet new ones.
Meeting with Pope Francis
- Opportunity for PM Modi to meet Pope Francis again.
- Pope joining G7 outreach sessions for the first time.
- Previous meeting during the 2021 G20 summit in Rome.
Pope’s Intervention on AI
- Expected to discuss artificial intelligence.
- Issued “Rome Call for AI ethics” in 2020.
- India active in global AI regulation debate.
Discussion on Food and Energy Security
- Major items on G7 agenda in Italy.
- India's interest as a major energy consumer and wheat producer.
- India flagged these issues post-Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Migration Issues
- High on Western concerns.
- India’s contributions as a major source of migrants.
- Emphasis on curbing illegal immigration and easing talent flow across borders
Global Governance and Geopolitical Tensions
- G7 discussion on global governance may be overshadowed by the Efforts to defend Ukraine and counter China’s economic challenges.
- PM Modi will not be attending Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland post-G7 summit
- It will be difficult for India to avoid consequences of escalating European conflict.
- There emerged a clear fault line in Western strategies on how to deal with Russia and China.
India's Strategic Engagement
- As great power conflict throws the world into dangerous disarray, the next few weeks will provide Modi and his advisers an opportunity to engage all the major actors, assess the competing imperatives among them, and think through Indian strategy and tactics in navigating the new dynamics.
- Unlike in the Cold War in the 20th century, India is now stronger and better placed to engage and shape the outcomes in the unfolding economic, political, and technological storms unleashed by great power conflict.
- The world, in turn, expects pro-active Indian diplomacy on the great global issues of the day.
Conclusion: Modi’s interlocutors in the democratic West appreciate the successful conclusion of the massive Indian electoral exercise and the salience of Modi’s re-election after two terms. Modi’s reduced mandate has helped take the bite out of the arguments in the West about India’s democratic decay. India on the other hand is in better position to influence the outcomes in the unfolding economic, political, and technological storms unleashed by great power conflict.