Editorial 1 : Relook at Dhaka
Context: The ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in a mass upsurge of “people’s power”, and the assumption of power in Dhaka by an interim government headed by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.
Introduction: The current moment holds both peril and promise. It requires a measured and sagacious response from all those who have a stake in regional stability.
Under Sheikh Hasina’s government
- For close to 15 years, in stark contrast to the preceding years, the use of Bangladeshi territory was effectively denied to all manner of terrorist and insurgent organisations and their backers who were eager to do India harm.
- This transformation was made possible by the concerted efforts of Sheikh Hasina’s government and mutually beneficial cooperation between the concerned institutions of both countries.
India’s non-interference policy
- In accordance with the well-established principle on non-interference, it has been India’s long-standing policy to refrain from passing judgement on what are essentially internal political matters of other countries.
Strengthening of Indo-Bangla ties
- In last 15 years, India and Bangladesh have, by and large, lived peacefully as neighbours.
- This led to blossoming of ties in a multitude of areas, ranging from security to multi-modal connectivity to trade and commerce to infrastructure development and people-to-people contact.
- More than 15 lakh Bangladeshi nationals travel annually to India for a host of purposes ranging from tourism to business and medical treatment.
- Bilateral trade rose to $18 billion in 2021-22.
- Cooperation in the power and energy sector, has become an important pillar of the bilateral relationship, with Bangladesh currently importing as much as 1,160 MW of power from India.
- There is immense potential to make further progress in all these areas and more.
Developing Bangladesh
- The remarkable progress made by Bangladesh in many indices of socio-economic development, such as literacy, infant mortality, women’s empowerment and financial inclusion is acknowledged and respected by many in India.
- The success achieved by Bangladesh’s garment industry has been lauded and sought to be replicated by business enterprises in India.
- The concept of microfinance, pioneered by Bangladesh’s Grameen Bank, has been embraced by several Indian institutions.
Challenges/Roadblocks in Indo-Bangla ties
- dismay persists among sections of Bangladeshi civil society over the issue of the killing of Bangladeshi nationals at the borders by Indian security forces.
- Equitable sharing of river waters.
- Finding lasting solutions to these problems remains a work in progress, but given political will and perseverance, they can and will be resolved to the satisfaction of both sides.
- Mutual recrimination and whipping up negative sentiment over contentious issues cannot be the answer.
Common Challenges
- At a time when new social and political forces are rapidly emerging in Bangladesh, the young student leaders who spearheaded the movement for political change and their supporters should bear in mind that millions of ordinary Indians share the developmental aspirations of their counterparts in Bangladesh and wish them well in their endeavours.
- Endemic poverty, mass unemployment among youth, runaway inflation, climate change, environmental degradation and the spread of infectious diseases are some of the all-pervasive enemies that respect no borders and stalk the people of both countries.
- It goes without saying that these common challenges can only be addressed in a spirit of mutual cooperation rather than one of hostility and mistrust.
Way Forward
- India and Bangladesh must face the future with renewed hope and confidence, eschewing the perils and embracing the promise of the fundamental reset that has taken place in Bangladesh.
- A reversion to the nay-saying, denying and finger-pointing of yesteryears is not an option.
Editorial 2 : When it Rains
Context: Monsoon and the good news for inflation.
State of this year’s Monsoon
- The southwest monsoon season had a poor start, with all-India rainfall in June 10.9% below the long period average (normal) for the month.
- But as El Niño ebbed and transitioned into a neutral phase, July recorded 9% above-normal rains. The current month has been even better — 26% above normal rainfall, taking the cumulative surplus for the season (June-September) to 6.3% till August 12.
- In short, the monsoon has been good so far, while also helping recharge groundwater tables and fill up the country’s major reservoir dams to 64.7% of full storage capacity — more than 60.8% last year and the 53.7% 10-year-average for this time.
Monsoon benefitting agriculture
- The well-distributed rains, both spatially and temporally, have led to increased area sown under all big-ticket kharif crops — paddy, pulses, maize and oilseeds.
- With global weather agencies predicting a La Niña generally known to boost rainfall activity in India to develop by September and persist through winter and spring, the prospects appear encouraging for the upcoming rabi cropping season as well.
Relief from food inflation
- A munificent monsoon and no heat waves will provide welcome relief on food inflation.
- The food inflation was above 8% y-o-y for eight straight months from November 2023, falling to 5.4% in July only thanks to a high base inflation of 11.5% last year for the same month.
- The Reserve Bank of India has refrained from cutting its interest rates — rightly so, knowing how food prices matter in influencing inflation expectations among Indian households and firms.
- A bumper kharif harvest and benign global prices with no fresh supply shocks could ease food inflationary pressures going forward.
- This should provide room for the government to lift export and stocking limit curbs on cereals, sugar and pulses, even while keeping the zero/low duty import window open on all major food commodities.
Conclusion: A good monsoon creates a virtuous chain of improved crop output which leads to reduced food inflation, giving a positive impetus to the economy.