Topic 1 : Breakthrough
Introduction: Recently, Qatari court acquitted the eight Indian citizens of espionage charges. They are returning to India. The whole episode showed the maturity of Indian diplomacy and the influence of India in the Middle East.
What were the charges against Indian citizens?
- The case against the Navy veterans was sensitive, and, to a large degree, opaque.
- All eight were employees of a Doha-based private company, Dahra Global, that provided training and support to Qatari armed forces.
- They were arrested in August 2022.
- While the charges against the Indian citizens were not made public, reports, including in the Financial Times, claimed that they were accused of spying for Israel.
- After the initial award of the death penalty, an appellate court commuted their sentences to prison terms in December.
- Throughout, New Delhi was careful in its tone and words.
- External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar told Parliament that the issue was “extremely sensitive” and his ministry did not jump the gun while assuring the families of the accused consular and legal support.
The challenges to India in rescuing those eight citizens
- From the moment Qatar’s Court of First Instance sentenced eight former Indian Navy personnel to death in October 2023, the challenge for India’s foreign policy establishment was clear: To bring citizens back home while ensuring that the growing economic and strategic ties between New Delhi and Doha are not derailed in the process.
- It is to New Delhi’s credit that it has risen to the challenge and the seven former officers and one seaman are to be reunited with their families at home.
- That this was achieved with quiet, patient diplomacy, supervised by the Prime Minister, despite the national and international media spotlight on the prisoners, makes it all the more impressive.
- The fact is that deep engagement with the monarchies of West Asia requires a different approach.
- The small ruling class in these countries is nearly all-powerful and runs international engagements directly — personal rapport of the sort PM Modi has with them can tip the scales.
The changes in India’s relationship with Gulf nations
- The episode — and, of course, its resolution — shows how deep and broad bilateral ties have become.
- There was a time when New Delhi viewed the Middle East only through the prism of Pakistan and to a lesser extent, Israel-Palestine.
- The strengthening of bilateral ties with willing partners in the Gulf has opened up the region for trade and provided more options for the country’s energy basket: Earlier this month, a multi-billion-dollar deal between the two countries has done much to secure the import of LNG from Qatar.
- In addition, with over 8 lakh Indian workers in the country, there is much that ties the two countries together.
- Given the fraught geopolitics of the region, especially in the light of the Israel-Hamas conflict growing wider, Delhi has done well to stay above the fray.
The irritants in India-Qatar relations
- The relationship with Qatar, like most others, has some points of contention.
- These include anti-India propaganda from Qatar-based media outlets and support for religious radicals in India.
Conclusion: Given the breakthrough moment in ties at the current moment, PM Modi could begin to address these issues when he meets Qatar Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani later this week.
Topic 2 : Snapshots of turbulence
Introduction: Today, the Indian Government faces an unpredictable situation on its 1,640 km eastern border with Myanmar: The Myanmar army and authorities have disappeared from across the white-and-red-coloured bridge that marks the border in Zokhawthar over the river Tiau.
The situation on the ground in Chin State of Myanmar
- Flags of Chin National Front were everywhere and entry was regulated by rebel groups.
- Large swathes of Chin State and Sagaing Region, which are on the border with Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland as well as Arunachal Pradesh, have fallen to rebel forces which are describing these as “liberated zones”.
- The CNF has announced an autonomous Chinland Council.
- With an eye to Delhi and issues in Manipur, it has promised to block illegal trafficking in drugs and arms and non-interference in India’s internal matters.
- Although the rebels have the town as of now, it cannot be estimated that these events will lead to fall of the military regime in Myanmar.
- Not less than 500 are said to have escaped fighting in three separate events; 45,000 Chin refugees are sheltering in Mizoram after the 2021 coup that ousted Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy after it won a landslide victory.
The Paletwa town and India’s Kaladan Multi-Modal Project
- In the town of Paletwa, which fell to a swift campaign by another ethnic armed group — the Arakan Army — the army has hurled a fierce counter attack by ground troops backed by airstrikes and artillery.
- Paletwa is critical to the rolling out of India’s ambitious Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project which seeks to connect Kolkata with the Sittwe port in Rakhine State.
- It is to be connected to Mizoram by road and the Kaladan river which flows by Paletwa.
- The Arakan Army is apparently seeking to push further to other strategic targets but may face a conflict with Chin rebel forces, for these are seen as Chin-majority regions.
India’s Call to Ending the Free Movement Regime
- Home Minister Amit Shah’s statements on building a border fence and ending the Free Movement Regime (FMR) need to be viewed in light of these escalating developments and as an effort to protect Indian security interests.
- The announcements have drawn fierce opposition from different states saying that it would break bonds between fraternal communities divided by a border drawn up arbitrarily by the British.
- The FMR permits people to enter 16 km into each other’s countries.
- The idea is to enable families, small traders and others to maintain connections dating back centuries.
Manipur government supported the fencing of borders
- Government and even local groups agree that the facility has been misused to enable movement of armed groups and illegal shipments of weapons and narcotics across lightly guarded and tough forest paths as well as the prized areca nut which is in huge demand for making supari, pan masala, gutka.
- Calls for fencing the border have been strongest from the beleaguered Chief Minister of Manipur, N Biren Singh, whose state remains racked by violence, largely between Kuki and Meitei armed groups.
- Singh says that Kuki fighters are moving people and weapons across the border although analysts point out that other insurgent groups from Manipur and Nagaland also have bases in Myanmar’s frontiers.
Challenges in fencing up the India-Myanmar borders
- The fence is a different proposition.
- It is a long-term project, hugely expensive and highly challenging given the difficult terrain.
- Work parties would have to deal with local resentments over efforts to sever old familial relations.
- Meanwhile, China has been active on its southern border, having forced a truce between powerful Shan groups and the junta.
- Neither the military regime nor the rebels are happy because China’s main objective is to secure its large investments and infrastructure assets, especially in Myanmar’s mineral, oil and gas-rich areas.
India appealed to its citizens to move out of Myanmar’s unsafe areas
- This raises an important issue — India too has economic interests in Myanmar, some in rebel-held areas.
- Recently, the Centre urged all Indians in Rakhine State, as the Arakan Army surged, to leave as it was highly unsafe.
- India has not retreated from its support to the army dispensation in Myanmar.
- Yet, Delhi needs to heed conditions on the ground: Rebel armed groups, some of which have been fighting the Myanmar army for over 70 years, are unlikely to be able to march on the capital of Naypyidaw, yet those controlling parts of Chin State are the new reality of the neighbourhood.
- A senior security official says that the lack of cohesion among rebel groups also means that the junta is unlikely to collapse until replaced by a more sustainable system.
- Neither China nor India are likely to change their current policies till such a viable process is in place.
Conclusion: Although it is in this larger context that the Centre’s announcement about the FMR has to be seen, yet the decision flies in the face of official policies of Neighbourhood First and Act East.
Former Ambassador to Myanmar Gautam Mukhopadhyaya warns against deciding complex issues in haste. He noted that “…the kinship and tribal ties are such that they will not be curbed by the measures. Rather, the same kinship that binds them to their fellow tribals in India could be turned against us.”