Editorial 1 : A less global world
Introduction: many multilateral meetings are upcoming in the shadow of re-election of Trump as US president. In his first term Trump has pullet USA from many multilateral institutions. In this context India should re-evaluate its commitment to multilateralism and should focus on ‘minilateralism’ instead.
Trumps 1st term: from Multilateralism to unilateralism
- Trump’s first presidential term (2017-2021) marked a dramatic shift from traditional US foreign policy.
- His administration questioned the efficacy of multilateralism and prioritised unilateralism.
- Trump withdrew from key international agreements and organisations, including the Paris Agreement on climate change, Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), UNESCO, WHO, and the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC), WTO, a clear departure from liberal principles.
- Unlike Democratic administrations, Trump rejected the notion that the US was responsible for leading global institutions, arguing instead for a foreign policy rooted in national interest.
Argument of Critics of Multilateralism in USA
- Multilateralism has come at a great cost to USA’s taxpayers.
- While USA’s taxpayers are paying for global stability, their jobs were lost to China, and Mexico like countries.
- While the emphasis on efficiency produced windfall profits for US capital, it devastated American communities in industrial towns.
Post-Trump Biden’s correction
- Following Trump’s defeat in 2020, the Biden administration sought to restore US commitment to multilateralism.
- The US rejoined the Paris Accord, WHO, and re-entered UNESCO.
- But Trump’s critique of the global trading order endured under Biden.
- As Trump prepares to return, the domestic backlash against globalism has intensified.
- With control over both chambers of Congress, Trump’s second term is expected to bring transformative policies that challenge the foundations of multilateralism.
The 2nd Trump term and possible backlashes
1. Paris Deal
- Trump is widely expected to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement again.
- At home, he has promised to dismantle the range of regulatory constraints on energy development, including on the hydrocarbon sector, imposed by the Biden Administration.
- He promises to enhance energy production in the US and embark on uninhibited economic growth.
- Trump underlines the importance of traditional forms of electricity generation needed for the AI industry that guzzles power.
- Climate activists see these moves as a significant blow to global efforts to combat climate change, undermining international cooperation and reducing financial support for developing nations’ climate initiatives.
- Trump’s stance is likely to embolden other countries to scale back their commitments, exacerbating global tensions.
2. The APEC
- The APEC forum, created during a period of Sino-US cooperation, now finds itself at the centre of escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing.
- The forum’s core mission of fostering economic integration across the Pacific has come under fire from Trump.
- He proposed 60 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports signal a potential intensification of the US-China trade war.
- Meanwhile, his administration is likely to ramp up scrutiny of China’s growing economic influence in Latin America.
- China’s trade and investment links with Latin America will be showcased by President Xi Jinping’s visit to Peru and Brazil to attend the APEC and G20 summits.
3. The G20
- In Trump’s first term, the US clashed with other members on trade, climate, and migration policies.
- Although Biden sought to revive multilateral cooperation, achieving a landmark global corporate tax agreement, tensions have persisted, particularly over climate action, modernising financial architecture, debt relief and other development priorities.
- For India, which has invested heavily in multilateralism in general, and G20 in particular, the upcoming summit offers an opportunity to reassess the forum’s effectiveness.
- More broadly, PM Modi’s discussions with world leaders should help India rethink its approach to global governance during Trump 2.0.
Multilateralism: a term of bygone era
- Multilateralism — economic, political, and institutional — that reached its peak at the turn of the 21st century is now in trouble.
- While globalists will bemoan the passing of an era, India’s policymakers will have to adapt to the new dynamics.
- To be sure, global problems need global solutions has become unrealistic now.
- Unilateral development of new technologies, bilateralism in trade and economic cooperation, and like-minded coalitions in finding solutions to regional challenges are likely to gain ground in the next few years.
Conclusion: India has already embraced minilateralism by investing in renewable energy, negotiating bilateral trade deals, and joining groups like the Quadrilateral Forum, Mineral Security Partnership, Global Partnership on AI, and Artemis Accords. Strengthening these initiatives remains crucial until multilateralism regains momentum.
Editorial 2 : An unrealised gender dividend
Introduction: As economists struggle to explain the stagnation in women’s participation in wage work in India, conservative social norms have emerged as a handy target to explain why rising economic prosperity has not translated into greater employment for women. However, this assumption of social stagnation has little basis in reality.
Insights from the India Human Development Survey (IHDS)
Overview
- It was organised by the University of Maryland and National Council of Applied Economic Research.
- It tracks changes in the lives of over 42,000 Indian households (2004–2024).
- It focuses on aspirational transformations among young women (aged 20–29) in the 2020s.
Key Findings
1. Education and Marriage Trends
- Education Gains:
- In 2011-12, 27% of women aged 20-29 completed Class 12; by 2022-24, this rose to over 50%.
- College graduation increased from 12% to 26%, achieving gender parity with men.
- Delayed Marriages:
- Married women in their 20s dropped from 76% (2011-12) to 66% (2022-24).
2. Autonomy in Marriage
- Marriage remains a family affair, but whereas only 42 per cent of young women in 2012 had any input in selecting their partners, by 2022, 52 per cent did.
- Premarital contact between spouses has historically been low, but is increasing sharply.
- In 2011, 30 per cent of women met their husbands before marriage, and 27 per cent connected via phone, WhatsApp, or email.
- By 2022, this proportion was 42 per cent and 54 per cent, respectively.
3. Changing Social Norms
- Preference for sons decreased from 23% (2012) to 12% (2022).
- Women comfortable traveling alone by bus/train has increased from 42% (2012) to 54% (2022).
- Membership in Self Help Groups grew from 10% to 18%.
4. Political Engagement
- Attendance at gram sabha/ward committee meetings increased from 6% (2012) to 8% (2022).
5. Economic Participation
- Stagnation in Wage Labour:
- Proportion of women in wage labour fell from 18% (2012) to 14% (2022).
- Stagnation observed even among women in their 30s.
- Interest in Employment:
- 80% of unemployed married women (2022) expressed willingness to work if jobs were available (up from 73% in 2011).
- 72% of families would allow women to work if suitable jobs existed.
6. Success Stories
- Equal pay under MGNREGA led to a surge in women participating in manual work.
- Improved transportation systems facilitated non-farm work opportunities.
Conclusion: Of the four key areas that define women’s empowerment, personal efficacy, power in intra-household negotiations, societal engagement, and access to income-generating activities, we see improvements in the first three domains. In contrast, the fourth - access to employment has stagnated. It is time to invite India’s daughters to partake in the fruits of economic development; they have clearly shown that they are ready and willing to help harvest the gender dividend.