Editorial 1 : Food for reform
Introduction: The incumbent NDA government is predicting its win in the 2024 general elections and has asked various ministries to prepare plans that they would like to announce in the first 100 days of their third term. The ministries are contacting various experts to help them frame the right policy framework that is in sync with the vision of Viksit Bharat@2047.
Suggestions for agri-food space
1. Raise the total factor productivity of the farm sector
- We need to see this as a food systems transformation.
- Agriculture has to produce not only more food, fibre and even fuel (biofuels), but it has to do so with fewer resources.
- India’s population is likely to go to about 1.6 billion by 2047.
- So, there are more mouths to feed. With gradually rising incomes, people will demand more and better food.
- Efficiency in the use of land, water, labour, and inputs like fertilisers and farm machinery is going to be critical.
- In other words, we must aim to raise our total factor productivity.
- This can be done only by putting in more resources in agri-R&D, innovations and extension.
2. Invest more and generate more awareness about climate-resilient agriculture
- The production system is being threatened by extreme weather events triggered by global warming.
- The last April to March temperature has already hit 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
- Last year’s El Nino effect led to agri-GDP growth dropping from 4.7 per cent in 2022-23 to just 0.7 per cent in 2023-24 (as per the second advance estimate).
- This poses a high risk, which then triggers knee-jerk reactions to ban exports, putting stock limits on traders, and unloading government stocks below their economic costs with a view to contain food inflation.
- The real solution lies in investing resources to create climate-resilient (smart) agriculture.
- This would mean more investments in seeds that are heat and flood-resistant, and more investment in water resources not just in augmenting their supplies
- but also ensuring water is being used more wisely. “More crop per drop” should not be just a slogan but a reality.
- Drips, sprinklers, and protected cultivation as part of precision agriculture will have to be adopted at a much larger scale than today.
- Given that almost 78 per cent of India’s freshwater is used for agriculture, we must learn to use every drop of water wisely, else cities will starve for water.
3. A robust logistic support to transport agri-products to urban area
- We must realise that by 2047, more than two-thirds of India will be living in urban areas — up from about 36 per cent today.
- Migration from rural to urban areas in search of higher productivity jobs is a natural process that cannot, and should not, be wished away.
- The implication of this is that much of the food will have to be moved from the hinterlands to urban areas.
- This would require a massive logistics revolution, from transporting to stocking to processing and organised retailing.
- This would open doors for large-scale investments, primarily by the private sector.
- The new government will have to facilitate this transformation by changing laws that are suitable for Bharat@2047.
- Many of our laws are those we inherited from the British in 1947.
- A fresh set of rules that are more market-aligned would be the need of the hour to build efficient value chains.
- Else, our post-harvest losses will mount.
4. Promote Farmer Producer Organisations (FPOs) or cooperatives to create the scale of production
- In this food systems transformation, while all players from the seed industry to farm machinery to processing and retailing are scaling up, farming is still fragmenting into smaller and smaller holdings.
- The challenge is to ensure that these smallholders are brought together, through Farmer Producer Organisations (FPOs) or cooperatives (as was done in the milk sector, a la AMUL), to create a scale that is demanded by processors, organised retailers, and exporters.
- This institutional innovation is the key to inclusive Bharat.
5. Migrate from food security towards nutritional security
- On the consumption front, we need to move beyond simple food security to nutritional security.
- Our malnutrition numbers, especially for children below the age of 5, are horrifying.
- With stunting today at 35 per cent, they would be a hurdle to make an efficient labour force for Bharat@2047.
- For this to improve, besides sanitation, women’s education and immunisation, we also need to fortify our staples with micro-nutrients.
- The government has made a beginning with zinc-rich rice and wheat, but it is shying away from golden rice with beta carotene (Vitamin A rich), although Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the US have declared it safe, and even Bangladesh and the Philippines have allowed its trials.
- Rice is our first crop, and most of those children who are malnourished today consume a lot of rice. This needs to be fortified with high nutrition.
6. A more enthusiastic public-private partnership is needed
- All this cannot be done by the government.
- Public-private partnerships are the way to go.
- The private sector can build efficient value chains and also produce seeds that are climate-resilient and more nutritious.
- The government has to provide a conducive policy framework.
- The government must devise a PLI-type scheme for the farm industry.
7. Re-thinking and re-designing of India’s subsidy regime
- Nothing much will move unless farmers’ incomes improve.
- For that, we need to “re-purpose” our subsidy regimes, be it fertilisers or food.
- A minimum of 25 to 30 per cent of the Rs 4 trillion subsidy on food and fertilisers can be saved if we move from the price-subsidy approach to direct income transfers for beneficiaries.
- These savings can be ploughed back into food systems for higher resilience and better nutrition.
Conclusion: Next government must focus on raising productivity in agriculture, scaling up processing and retailing, and facilitating the adoption of new technologies.
Editorial 2 : The Asian edge
Introduction: US President Joe Biden’s summits with the leaders of Japan and the Philippines last week at the White House, and China’s strong reaction, suggest that some important new political and military markers are being laid down in Asia. Compared to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza — a conflict in Asia between China, on the one hand, and the US and its allies in the region on the other, would perhaps be more consequential.
Impact of a US-China standoff on India
- Today, the US and China are the world’s foremost economic and military powers, and a direct confrontation between them in Asia, the world’s most dynamic region, could arguably shake the world to its core.
- India, which has been locked in a prolonged military standoff with China in the high Himalayas over the last four years and in an expanding strategic partnership with the US, will inevitably be affected by any military confrontation between Washington and Beijing.
- Equally important, Delhi, unlike in the past, will have an important role in shaping the new and edgy Asian dynamic.
Transformation of pacifist Japan into a major military powerhouse in Asia
- One of the significant outcomes of Washington’s summits last week is the transformation of Japan from a passive and pacifist nation into a potential military powerhouse in Asia.
- Since the Second World War, Japan has stood in the military shadow of the US as a protectorate.
- In Washington, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has signed off on agreements to integrate the military command structures of the two countries and contribute actively — with a growing defence budget, a more powerful missile arsenal, and the joint development and production of weapons with the US — in deterring Chinese military coercion and promoting a rules-based Indo-Pacific order.
- In the first-ever trilateral summit with the US and the Philippines, Kishida agreed to join hands with Biden in defending the territorial sovereignty of the Philippines, which has been under relentless pressure from the PLA in the South China Sea.
- Biden and Kishida also outlined an agenda of economic cooperation with Manila — especially in infrastructure development — as an alternative to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.
China’s attempt to fight USA’s containment policies
- China, unsurprisingly, has warned the US against “bloc politics” in Asia and the attempt to create a “mini Nato” in the east.
- Beijing is, of course, trying to counter American efforts at isolating it in Asia.
- In the last few days, it hosted the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, received the former president of Taiwan, Ma Ying-jeou, and welcomed the leaders of Vietnam and the president-elect of Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto.
- Beijing is determined to defeat the region’s economic decoupling from China and a consolidation of its neighbours into a countervailing coalition backed by the US.
The illusion in India for better Indo-China relations
- Some in Delhi believe Beijing may be ready for a fresh outreach to prevent India from getting closer to the US and boosting an Asian coalition against China.
- Delhi has long nurtured these illusions, only to be disappointed every time.
- Seeing real progress on restoring peace and tranquillity on the border, disturbed rudely by the PLA in the summer of 2020, must remain a precondition before any Indian exploration of a political reset with China.
Conclusion: Important new political and military markers are being laid down by the US and China in Asia. Delhi will have an important role to play. Delhi must not be any illusion of a benign China, but it must assess the intention of China with realistic eyes.