Editorial 1: India and the Anglosphere
Recent Context
- Recently, The US, UK and Australia have finalised a multi-billion-dollar nuclear submarine deal under their grouping AUKUS. They have stated that the move is to keep the Indo-Pacific region ‘free and open’
- According to the deal, beginning in the early 2030’s the US will sell three Virginia-class submarines to Australia with the potential of two more if needed.
- This would provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines in an effort to counter the rise of China in the Indo-Pacific.
- According to geo-politician, AUKUS could well be an inflexion point in the evolution of Asian geopolitics which is coupled with the Quad (which US and Australia are a part of including India and Japan).
Technical and policy issues in implementing the AUKUS road map
- Project Cost and Time: The current estimated cost of the project will be around $250 billion (to the Australian taxpayer). It will be nearly three decades before an Australian-built nuclear submarine will enter service.
- Projects of this scale will inevitably involve significant delays and cost escalation.
- But the step has been taken and there appears to be strong bipartisan support in the three countries for a venture that will strengthen their alliance and make it consequential for the Indo-Pacific.
AUKUS project aims to develop, build and operate a “sovereign fleet” of Australian Navy:
- At the heart of the AUKUS project is the plan by the US and UK to assist the Royal Australian Navy to develop, build and operate a “sovereign fleet” of conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs). This will unfold in several phases.
- The first step in the implementation of AUKUS, starting right away, will embed Australian personnel in the American and British nuclear submarine establishments. There will also be more port calls by US and British nuclear-powered submarines in Australia.
- In the second phase starting in 2027, Washington and London will forward deploy nuclear submarines in Australia “to accelerate the development of the Australian naval personnel, workforce, infrastructure and regulatory system necessary” to establish solid SSN capabilities in Australia
- third phase, starting early next decade, the US will sell up to five nuclear-powered submarines to Australia.
- In the fourth phase, starting late 2030s, London will deliver the first British-built AUKUS submarine to Canberra.
- In the final phase beginning early 2040s, the nuclear submarines built in Australia will begin to roll out.
Multiple strategic consequences of AUKUS project for Asia, including India.
- First, AUKUS is in essence about transforming Australia’s strategic capabilities and making it a powerful factor in shaping the Indo-Pacific regional security environment.
- Nuclear-powered submarines are only one part of this broader ambition. AUKUS will see a deeper partnership between the US, UK, and Australia in developing a range of underwater technologies to cope with the dramatic expansion of Chinese naval capabilities in the Indo-Pacific.
- UKUS also involves collaboration between the three countries in a range of emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing that will shape regional security scenarios.
- As India-Australia relation are strengthening so this should also open the door for greater S&T cooperation between India and Australia which should eventually expand to cover sensitive strategic areas.
- Second, the Indian foreign policy community tends to neglect the continuing global strategic salience of Britain.
- London, which impressed Central Europe with its activism in the Ukraine war, will now see its profile in Asia boosted by the AUKUS deal.
- The UK has key role in the AUKUS, with its critical role in designing and developing a new class of nuclear-powered submarines by marrying cutting-edge US technologies to Britain’s domestic nuclear capabilities and the Australian demand.
- Therefore, it brings back the active role of UK in Asia After the UK abandoned its security responsibilities n East of Suez in the late 1960s, Britain had become marginal to Asian security all these decades
- Third, AUKUS has reinvigorated the idea of an “Anglosphere” that speaks of the enduring geopolitical bonds between the US, UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.
- As AUKUS arrangement focuses on the Indo-Pacific and also look beyond information sharing to the integration of the technological and defence industrial bases of the three countries.
- India, which had difficult ties with the Anglosphere in the past, is now seeing a rapid expansion of its ties with the Anglosphere countries so it will strengthen the India’s position in Indo-pacific region.
- Fourth, the three countries have taken pains to emphasise that AUKUS’s purview does not involve nuclear weapons. While the US and UK are nuclear weapon powers, Australia has renounced its nuclear weapon option by joining the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
- China has launched a campaign against the AUKUS, saying that it is against the non-proliferation norms.
- But the NPT does not prohibit AUKUS-like cooperation between nuclear and non-nuclear weapon states.
- Finally, the US has made it clear that it does not plan to extend the AUKUS arrangement to other partners like Japan and India.
- In Delhi, there is no expectation of such cooperation. Nor has Delhi any reason to quarrel with the AUKUS plan to deter Chinese expansionism in the Indo-Pacific.
Conclusion:
- In the past, the US sought to promote regional security unilaterally through its own military capabilities.
- As it comes to terms with the enormous scale of the military challenges that China presents, Therefore USA is now eager to boost the strategic capabilities of its allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific.
- The US focus is different with different partners. But the objective is similar to promote local balances of power.
- The US is now boosting the military capabilities of Japan and South Korea and seeking to build a deeper partnership with India on strategic technologies.
- Therefore, India has opportunity to develop a unique set of arrangements of its own with USA and its allies that will strengthen India’s comprehensive national power as well as enhance its contribution to regional peace and security in Indo-pacific region.
Editorial 2: IPCC meet in Switzerland: Significance, likely impact
Recent Context:
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is meeting in Switzerland this week to finalise the last report of its sixth assessment cycle, which is expected to set up the tempo for a string of climate change-focused discussions over the next fortnight.
About the IPCC
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change
- Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
- The objective of the IPCC is to provide governments at all levels with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies.
- It carried out periodic assessments of climate science form the basis of global climate action, is set to finalise what is known as the Synthesis Report, incorporating the findings of the five reports that it has released in the sixth assessment cycle since 2018.
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IPCC report and its assessment
- IPCC published three comprehensive reports — one on scientific evidence for climate change, the other on impacts and vulnerabilities, and the third exploring mitigation options available.
- Besides these, special reports on the feasibility of keeping global temperature rise within the 1.5-degree Celsius limit and the connections between land, ocean and cryosphere, were also released
- Together, these form the most comprehensive understanding of the earth’s climate system, the changes it is undergoing, the repercussions of these changes, and the actions that should to be taken to avoid the worst impacts.
- The first report of this cycle, the one on 1.5 degree temperature limit, had come out in 2018. In the five years since then, a lot more evidence on the pressing need to stick to the 1.5 degree Celsius target has presented itself.
- In fact, as measurements by the World Meteorological Organisation show, average annual temperatures have already gone above 1.2 degree Celsius from pre-industrial times, and a breach of the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold, even if temporary, is a real possibility in just the next five years.
- The Synthesis Report, therefore, is expected to emphasise on meeting the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold as the main global goal, unlike the Paris Agreement, that seeks to restrict temperature rise to below 2 degree Celsius.
More meetings which supplement the IPCC report
- The adverse impact of climate is start observing, This year’s February in India was the hottest ever, and unusually hot weather continues to prevail in many parts of the country. The situation is similar in several other parts of the world, with extreme weather events becoming the norm. This year is predicted to be among the warmest ever.
- Therefore, there is need for a inclusive plan in upcoming climate related organisations.
- As, the release of the Synthesis Report on March 20 would be immediately followed by a ministerial-level meeting in Copenhagen.
- This will discuss ways to implement the decisions taken at last year’s climate meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh, especially the one related to creation of a new fund to help countries hit by climate-related disasters.
- This meeting is aimed at building the atmosphere for more ambitious agreements at this year’s climate conference, scheduled in Dubai towards the end of the year.
- Later next week, the UN 2023 Water Conference will take place, with climate change as one of the most important agenda. Two G-20 meetings around the climate change theme are also scheduled towards the end of this month, one in Udaipur, Rajasthan, and the other in Gandhinagar, Gujarat.
Conclusion:
- The current level of climate actions is not even commensurate to the effort required to meet the 2-degree Celsius target.
- There is disagreement even on something as basic as a commitment to phase out fossil fuels, one of the main contributors to global warming.
- It is expected that Europe might be getting ready to change that, and push for a global commitment to phase out the use of “unabated” fossil fuels by 2050. But this can very well end up remaining one of the contested discussions at the climate meetings.
- along with it, nations should come together while impriving its INDC goal in order to limit the temperature as per Paris climate deal.