Topic 1 : No last word
Introduction: The High-Level Committee on Simultaneous Elections, headed by former President Ram Nath Kovind, has unanimously recommended that polls to the Lok Sabha, state legislative assemblies, municipalities, and panchayats be held at the same time.
The concerns regarding the formation and functioning of the committee
- Congress Leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury refused to participate; the eight-member panel comprised those mostly seen to agree with the government’s views on the proposal.
- Its terms of reference also carried the presumption that simultaneous polls are in the “national interest”.
- The question, then, is whether the Kovind Committee report has merely rubber-stamped the government’s proposal or if its conclusions are a product of considered deliberations.
- The report says that the panel invited suggestions and comments from political parties, legal experts, former election commissioners, economists, representatives of business organisations and members of the Bar Council.
- It says that “the committee carefully considered all the constitutional and legal objections” and its members “studied the relevant legal literature on elections, both in India and abroad”.
- Unfortunately, in its substance, tone and tenor, the document does not seem informed by “in-depth research and analysis” and “participatory processes”.
What does one nation one election want to achieve?
- Simultaneous elections will impose an artificial unitary character on a federal system of multiple diversities.
- The report, at best, engages cursorily with this concern.
- Instead, its 320-odd pages belabour “that separate elections cause a waste of resources, result in policy paralysis and inflict huge socio-economic costs, besides leading to voter fatigue”.
- This is only a harkening back to the raison d’etre cited by the government in September last year when it mooted One Nation One Election (ONOE).
Dissenting voices against ONOE proposal
- The document notes that 15 political parties have opposed the move, but there is little by way of engaging with, or addressing, their criticism or that of dissenters like Tamil Nadu Election Commissioner, V Palanikumar, who told the panel that “ONOE could potentially dilute the focus on region-specific challenges and diminish the efficacy of local governance”.
- The suggestion of former Chief Justice of the Madras High Court, Sanjib Banerjee — “state funding of elections is a more effective reform to tackle inefficiency” — finds a mention.
- So do the concerns of former Chief Justice of the Delhi High Court, AP Shah, “that simultaneous elections hinder political accountability as fixed terms offer representatives unwarranted stability without performance scrutiny.”
- These compelling arguments have been crunched into a few sentences in the report.
- Unfortunately, the report does nothing more than dismiss these apprehensions as “misplaced”.
ONOE is against political diversity and regional parties in India
- ONOE could flatten the political diversity that has marked India’s electoral calendar since the Sixties when the synchronicity of the election calendar was first broken.
- Much has changed in the Indian polity since then, including the ascendance of regional parties in large parts of the country.
- The Samajwadi Party’s response underlined the fear that “State-level parties will not be able to compete with national parties in electoral strategy and expenditure”, which too does not seem to adequately draw the attention of the committee.
Conclusion: The panel’s report cannot be the last word on a proposal with far-reaching consequences that go beyond political-ideological lines. In days to come, the legitimate concerns of those who disagree must be heard respectfully, and heeded.
Topic 2 : Super election year
Introduction: In 2024, national elections are scheduled in over 60 countries. Two billion voters will cast their votes. That’s a quarter of the world’s population.
What is so peculiar about this year?
- This is the first time that Mexico could get a woman president.
- Joe Biden is seeking a second term in the United States.
- The Democratic People’s Party in Taiwan has just won a historic third consecutive term.
- The fourth most populous country in the world, Indonesia, will elect a new President soon.
- Sheikh Hasina has won a fifth term in Bangladesh.
The super election year
- This is a “super election year”.
- Election booths will be buzzing in the United States, the United Kingdom, India and Indonesia.
- Psephologists and political enthusiasts will gleefully witness the dynamics of power, democracy, and unpredictability as elections play out on a global scale.
- Those suffering from politicophobia (a morbid fear of politics and voting) would prefer to fast forward to 2025.
The dominant theme across the globe in coming elections
- One dominant theme emerges from elections being held across the globe this year — societal divisions have been laid bare.
- From the deeply polarising issue of abortion rights to the contentious debate over corporatisation in agriculture, the fault lines are stark.
- Many of these elections, including India’s, are not just about choosing leaders; they are about deciding the direction of societies ruptured by conflicting ideologies.
1. United Kingdom
- Bookmakers’ odds are often dependable barometers to predict results in sport and politics.
- Even though elections in the UK are expected to be held in the latter half of 2024, British bookmakers have virtually already called the result.
- According to Ladbrokes, one of England’s oldest betting companies, the Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, are clear favourites to win, with odds of 1/10.
- (In other words, if you invest £1,000 on the Labour Party winning, you only stand to gain £100.)
- So, as far as the bookmakers are concerned, it’s pretty much a done deal for the Labour Party.
- In contrast, the Conservative Party led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, has odds of 6/1.
- What this means is that a £1,000 bet on the Conservative Party will earn a huge £6,000 if the Conservatives win.
- The populist right-wing party Reform UK (earlier Brexit party), led by Richard Tice, are a distant third with odds of 50/1.
- It must be pointed out that there are multiple examples where favourites bite the dust.
2. United States
- Trump versus Biden rematch.
- The economy, cost of living, LGBTQ rights, the war in Ukraine, and conflict in Gaza are some of the hot-button issues which are dominating political debate on American television.
- From campaign rallies to made-for-television debates, one flashpoint is certainly abortion rights.
- The seismic 2021 overturning of Roe v. Wade and the Alabama Supreme Court’s controversial decision equating frozen embryos with children have intensified the cultural chasm between conservative and liberal states.
- Abortion has surged to the forefront of political discourse, with one in eight voters deeming it critical.
- Research indicates a doubling since 2020 in patients travelling for abortions, with medical abortions now exceeding half of all procedures.
- These have had a profound impact on reproductive rights, stirring voter mobilisation and accentuating enduring ideological divisions.
- As both the controversial Donald Trump and the octogenarian President Biden line up on the starting blocks for second terms, abortion rights might determine who crosses the finishing line first.
3. South Africa
- In a historic shift post-apartheid, South Africa’s upcoming general election on May 29 could see the African National Congress (ANC) receiving less than 50 per cent of the vote for the first time since 1994.
- This could lead to a multi-party government, marking a significant moment for South Africans and the region.
4. India
- Unemployment, food security, health, press freedom, liberty, etc., are the issues which the ruling dispensation will obfuscate.
- These are the issues which opposition parties across the country will need to amplify.
- These are the issues which television channels turned cheerleaders will ignore over the next six weeks.
Conclusion: In more than 60 countries, polls will decide direction of societies ruptured by conflicting ideologies.