Editorial 1 : Politics of diplomacy
Introduction: Since the election of Mohamed Muizzu as president, Maldives has undoubtedly been moving away from India and closer to China. The China-Maldives joint statement at the end of Muizzu’s visit bears testimony to their bonhomie.
Recent actions of Maldives
- In his China trip, president Muizzu gave a barely veiled reference to India’s “bullying”.
- Then on Sunday, Ahmed Nazim, policy director at the Maldives President’s office reportedly said that the “Maldivian delegation” at the first India-Maldives High-Level Core Group meeting “proposed the removal of Indian troops by March 15”.
- The deadline did not find a mention in the official statements by the foreign offices of the two countries.
- The statement, coming as it does on the heels of the controversy over the juvenile remarks by Maldivian ministers about Prime Minister Modi’s Lakshadweep visit, deserves attention.
The foreign policy see-saw in Male regarding India
- Muizzu’s turn to Beijing may seem like a decisive shift but it is of a piece with the political see-saw in Male, which has had an unfortunate effect on the country’s external orientation.
- Muizzu’s predecessor, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, was seen as being pro-India and the current president ran on an “India out” campaign.
- The withdrawal of Indian troops from the country was a poll promise, more political than strategic — India reportedly has less than 90 soldiers in Maldives.
- Solih’s predecessor Abdulla Yameen tilted towards Beijing. The fact that India plays a significant role in Maldivian politics should not be surprising.
India’s impact on its neighbours' internal politics
- Militarily, economically and strategically, India looms large over its neighbours.
- Some aspects of India’s internal politics — expansionist rhetoric, conflating religion and illegal migration during polls — too can make many in the neighbourhood uncomfortable and be used to whip up sentiments by those seeking power.
- Social media jingoism and calls for boycotting a smaller neighbour do not help matters.
How should Delhi react to Male’s actions?
- The answer is clear and was framed by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on Saturday: “… politics is politics,” he said and added that “it can’t be guaranteed that every country will support or agree with India every time.”
- Smaller countries like Maldives will do their best to leverage the rivalries among greater powers — in this case, India and China.
- What makes the current “India Out” push disturbing is the all-or-nothing approach.
- There seems to be little recognition of the realities of geography or convergent interests.
- Delhi must engage with the civil society in Maldives and present itself as a benign neighbour.
- The fact remains that Maldives is a mere 700 km from the Indian coast and over 6,000 km from China.
- From the tsunami in 2004 to the drinking water crisis a decade later, India was the first to rush to the Maldivians’ aid.
- At the same time, China’s strategic interests in the Indian Ocean make smaller littoral states perfect targets for Beijing’s diplomatic outreach.
- Delhi must continue to engage with Male, as well as the people of Maldives. As the regional power, it need not be thin-skinned.
Conclusion: Maldives reported deadline to remove Indian troops deserves Delhi's attention. But an outsized reaction must be avoided.
Editorial 2 : In good hands
Introduction: Every year, on January 11, the Army Chief holds a media interaction and responds to media queries related to India’s military-strategic security issues, ranging from how borders were being handled against specific threats to internal security issues.
The Manipur Violence and J&K insurgency was the prime focus
The situation in Manipur
- The Chief was emphatic in saying that in Manipur, the level of violence had decreased and that the Army was working with several central and state agencies to restore the situation.
- Yet, the fact that of the 5,000-odd small arms stolen from state police armouries, only about 30 per cent of the weapons have been recovered, confirms the challenge before the Assam Rifles and the Army’s III Corps.
- The situation remains volatile at the Indo-Myanmar border, too. That volatility adds complexity.
- In addition, the Free Movement Regime (FMR) with Myanmar permits movement of border populations up to 16 km on either side of the border without visas; only permits are required.
- This, too, facilitates infiltration by undesirable and anti-national elements, along with smuggling of narcotics and contraband.
- The potential of negative situations remains high and the Chief expressed concern on the fact that only 20 Assam Rifles (AR) units are available for border sealing; others remain on the counter-insurgency (CI) grid and work in conjunction with other forces.
- What the Chief did not mention is the fact that AR units, by virtue of their near permanent deployment in the Northeast, are the best geared to handle the situation.
- This is one entity which can do with expansion, considering the scope for proliferation of security issues in the Northeast.
The institution of the Army took a hit in Manipur
- Complaints against their lack of neutrality and bias towards one community or the other are an inevitable part of CI operations, where efforts to counter an effective force such as AR will invariably be made.
- The Army has to resist this since the management of AR has always remained a contentious subject.
- The Manipur turbulence is likely to persist as ethnic battle lines are drawn up and remain even more complex than when the issue took centre stage in May 2023.
- Thus far, it has remained restricted to some states in the Northeast, but unless tackled robustly, has the potential to spread to various areas, bringing chaos across the vulnerable Northeast.
- It is good that PM Sheikh Hasina’s electoral victory in Bangladesh ensures no interference from that quarter but something more permanent needs to be worked out to neutralise the potential of external support.
- The Chief’s clarity is encouraging but this will need to be integrated with political and social narratives to take it to a successful end.
The situation in J&K is improving
- The Army Chief was frank about the situation in J&K, terming it to be a concern.
- It’s a welcome admission that in no way smacks of negativity.
- In fact, only if the threats are realistically assessed will there be more pragmatic solutions, all available in the Army’s vast repertoire of experience.
- The attitude reflected by the Chief is indeed a welcome departure from the defensive and routine responses that sometimes emanate from professional quarters.
- It’s refreshing to see admission by the Army’s highest office that “there were tactical lessons to be learnt from the series of setbacks in the region, which claimed the lives of 20 soldiers in the past year in ambushes by terrorists, and that the Army is studying tactics employed by the adversaries in the area”.
- The abysmal ratio of losses to achievements, perhaps one of the highest of the long J&K counter-proxy campaign, needs a fresh approach.
- General Pande’s mature outlook and raksha mantri’s deep support for winning hearts and minds augur well for the coming years.
The abnormal situation of the LAC
- There is the entire gamut of issues of the northern borders with China along the LAC.
- At the Indo-China border Indian Army’s deployment is robust and balanced, this was also indicated by Chief’s statement.
- Although efforts are being made by both sides to reduce the tension.
- But Indian policy makers know that unless a massive reduction of troops from the Chinese side and destruction of permanent construction in the bordering area on the Chinese side does not happen, any signalling of normalisation will not work.
- While China has attempted to coerce India, it has not succeeded, although it perceives it has put us on the defensive.
- India has kept its options open, without going overboard in any direction.
- What the Army Chief needs to do is to keep the Army in a high state of readiness, reorder force structuring for the optimum response to two-front threats and avert any tactical and sub-tactical triggers which can upset the apple cart.
Conclusion: The Chief must also prepare his force for the inevitable technology transformations and even for what may appear mundane — threats from climate change. With regard to the latter, not many will advise him but the wise need no push on issues which stare them in the face.