Editorial 1 : Next government’s things to-do
Introduction: The Indian economy has done well in growing by above 7 per cent for three successive years while other major countries have struggled to stay afloat. However, if one looks closer, the picture is not that straightforward. Compared to pre-Covid years, India has added less value to its GDP. Here are some key points on which the next government should think of working.
Five areas that need to be focused on.
1. Reviving private investment.
- Government capex has driven infrastructure growth, especially in roads and railways.
- This has spurred growth in sectors such as steel, cement, machinery, and chemicals.
- Private sector investment is crucial for further growth.
- Investment decisions in the private sector rely on return on capital, which requires strong demand.
- The PLI scheme has shown limited success, mostly in mobile phones, solar panels, and partially in electric vehicles.
- Suggestions for improvement include expanding the PLI scheme to SMEs and providing incentives like investment allowances.
2. Increasing Household Consumption:
- Household consumption has been volatile, with a surge during the pandemic for services and some manufactured goods.
- Hospitality and tourism sectors performed well, but consumer goods demand remained weak.
- Surplus capacity and high inflation have muted investments and compressed demand in the consumer goods sector.
- Rural demand has been weak due to poor farm output from a sub-normal monsoon.
- Reconsider tax rates to increase disposable income.
- Lower direct tax rates and rationalize GST slabs.
- Address the decline in household savings by reviewing existing tax structures.
- Reconsider the old tax scheme and provide further avenues for savings.
3. Employment generation
- It is not directly under the control of the government.
- It revolves around the private sector, though, on the government’s part, it can full up all the vacant positions, providing a small push to job creation.
- But, only with consumption taking off, will investments rise, creating the required employment opportunities.
4. Focus on farms
- Revisit and discuss the controversial farm laws with various stakeholders to reach an acceptable solution.
- Consider government participation in farming through state cooperatives to manage price increases due to crop failures.
- Clearly articulate the government's stance on agricultural trade to provide certainty for farmers.
- Establish standardized procedures for procurement and distribution to avoid reactive measures.
- Revoke the ban on futures trading in products like oilseeds, pulses, and cereals to enhance productivity through robust price discovery.
5. Integrate into Global Supply Chains
- This would mean entering into more free trade agreements with large trading partners.
- In the last five years or so, there has been significant acceleration in services exports with the IT sector taking the lead.
- But the same has not been the case in merchandise exports. This needs to change.
Conclusion: It is also expected that the government will work aggressively on lowering the fiscal deficit over the next few years. While the target of 4.5 per cent of GDP will most probably be achieved by 2025-26, the important thing is to move towards the 3 per cent mark. This will require deft balancing by the next government.
Editorial 2 : The CDS that should be
Introduction: Media reports that the complex and contentious policy issue of rewiring the Indian military into integrated theatre commands (ITC) is gaining traction and that the armed forces are looking at the appointment of a Vice Chief of Defence Staff and a Deputy Chief of Defence Staff.
The CDS’s many hats
- The CDS has a challenging and unique institutional profile.
- Holds the rank of a four-star general, equal to the three service chiefs.
- Acts as Secretary to the Government of India in the Ministry of Defence.
- Serves as Principal Adviser to the defence minister on inter-service issues.
- Balances professional military expertise with bureaucratic responsibilities and political advisory duties.
A chequered trajectory
- Appointment of General Bipin Rawat as First CDS:
- Retired as army chief in December 2019 and appointed as first CDS in January 2020.
- His tenure ended tragically with his death in an air accident in December 2021.
- Many policies initiated by him were left suspended, with some seen as impulsive and less wise.
- Appointment of Lt Gen Anil Chauhan (retd) as Second CDS:
- Took the Modi government nine months to appoint a new CDS after Rawat's death.
- Lt Gen Anil Chauhan (retd) appointed in October 2022, raising eyebrows due to his recall from retirement, which was unprecedented and seen by some as avoidable.
- Current State and Operational Readiness:
- Considerable internal deliberation on organizational changes has occurred.
- Little tangible progress on the operational front by the end of Modi 2.0.
- Existing command and control structures with the three service chiefs remain in place for any immediate war scenario.
Why the new posts?
- The new posts at the higher level are being envisaged to enable the CDS to realise the larger objective of enhancing jointness (the sharing of domain expertise and assets) and improving composite combat capability.
- Some concerns regarding post hierarchy need further clarification, such as
- The post of a Vice CDS in four-star rank.
- Rank hierarchy is central to the military and if implemented, the office of the CDS would be tenanted by two four-star rank officers and at a later stage — complemented by three theatre commanders presumably of four-star rank.
- Concurrently, the three service chiefs who are the original four-star rank officers would have a different profile that would be devoid of the command responsibility.
Some suggestions to improve the rewiring the armed forces
- The existing set of responsibilities for the CDS is a case of avoidable overload and that the role of functioning as a Secretary to the government be reviewed.
- In the new posts being mooted, it would be desirable if the bureaucratic role could be hived off to the four-star VCDS thereby allowing the CDS to focus on his primary roles.
- The reference in the report that the Maritime Theatre Command (MTC) is likely to have its base in Coimbatore is perplexing.
- Karwar had been earlier identified and there was a certain logic to choosing this venue for the MTC.
- Why Coimbatore and not a location along the coast that will maximise existing infrastructure and assets for the MTC is intriguing.
India’s security concerns require CDS post
- With a two-front operational tasking along the land borders (China and Pakistan) and tangled, unresolved territorial disputes that have been festering for over seven decades and compounded by the scourge of state-sponsored terrorism — the challenges to national security and sovereignty remain abiding and tenacious.
- Kargil 1999, Mumbai 2008 and Galwan 2020 are illustrative of threats and (military) capacity.
- The creation of the CDS in 2019 was to enable an enhancement in overall combat efficiency across the board and prepare for new exigencies that will be shaped by the techno-strategic churn that is now taking place.
- The wars in Ukraine and Palestine and the spillover into the Arabian Sea are cases in point.
The distance (not) covered since 2019
- An objective review would suggest that the needle of India’s overall combat efficiency — the ultimate litmus test — has not moved significantly since 2019 and the announcement of the post of a CDS.
Conclusion: If India were to face a war now, the existing command and control structures with the three service chiefs at the apex would have to deal with the exigency. This makes the post of CDS a more urgent matter.