Editorial 1: The EL NINO Shadow
Context:
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a normal southwest monsoon, with aggregate rainfall for the country at 96 per cent of the historical long-period average over June-September.
Introduction: LA NINA and EL NINO
- La Niña basically refers to an abnormal cooling of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean waters off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru. Such cooling (SSTs falling 0.5 degrees Celsius or more below a 30-year average for at least five successive three-month periods) is a result of strong trade winds blowing west along the equator, taking warm water from South America towards Asia.
- The warming of the western equatorial Pacific, then, leads to increased evaporation and concentrated cloud-formation activity around that region, whose effects may percolate to India as well.
- While La Niña is associated with good rainfall in India, this isn’t the case with El Niño – the opposite “warm” phase of ENSO. During El Niño, the trade winds weaken or even reverse: Instead of blowing from east (South America) to west (Indonesia), they could turn into westerlies.
- As the winds blow from the west to east, they cause the masses of warm water to move into the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The rise in SSTs there, thus, produces increased rainfall along western Latin America, the Caribbean and US Gulf Coast, while depriving Southeast Asia, Australia and India of convective currents.
The implications
- Most global models are seeing the transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño happening this year. But that would probably affect the monsoon only in the second half (August-September) of the season.
- But the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest alert predicts the phenomenon to develop by May-July. That would be in the first half itself. The IMD is basically counting on El Niño’s impact being neutralised by “positive” Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions developing during the season. To the extent a positive IOD — warmer temperatures in the Arabian Sea waters relative to that in the eastern Indian Ocean — cancels a weak El Niño, as it happened in 2006, the monsoon could well turn out “normal”.
- The table below shows that practically all drought years in India since Independence – marked by large declines in foodgrain production or monsoon failures – have witnessed El Niño events of varying intensity. The sole exception was 1966-67, although the year before had recorded a “strong” El Niño.
Way Forward
- However, these are early days. A clearer picture, including of El Niño and IOD, would emerge by end-May, when the IMD will also issue its second-stage forecast. It’s advisable for both the Centre and state governments to assume a sub-normal monsoon this time.
- The statistical probability of that is itself high, given the four consecutive years of good monsoons and overall rainfall from 2019 to 2022. The time between now and the start of the season should be used for contingency planning that factors in different scenarios — from the monsoon’s delayed onset to its failure in the second half.
- The time between now and the start of the season should be used for contingency planning that factors in different scenarios — from the monsoon’s delayed onset to its failure in the second half.
Editorial 2: Going National
Context:
- Recently, the Election Commission of India (EC) revised the list of “recognized” national parties and state parties. It recognized the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as a national party, giving it a major boost before 2024, while the Trinamool Congress (TMC), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Communist Party of India (CPI) lost their national party status.
NATIONAL AND STATE PARTIES
- The Election Commission registers political parties for the purpose of elections and grants them recognition as national or state parties on the basis of their poll performance. The other parties are simply declared as registered-unrecognised parties.
- The recognition granted by the Commission to the parties determines their right to certain privileges like allocation of the party symbols, provision of time for political broadcasts on the state-owned television and radio stations and access to electoral rolls.
- Every national party is allotted a symbol exclusively reserved for its use throughout the country. Similarly, every state party is allotted a symbol exclusively reserved for its use in the state or states in which it is so recognised.
Conditions for Recognition as a National Party
- If it secures six per cent of valid votes polled in any four or more states at a general election to the Lok Sabha or to the legislative assembly; and, in addition, it wins four seats in the Lok Sabha from any state or states; or
- If it wins two per cent of seats in the Lok Sabha at a general election; and these candidates are elected from three states; or
- If it is recognised as a state party in four states.
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Benefits on being recognized as National Party
- First, the election symbol of the party will remain unchanged across India. National parties get free broadcast/telecast times on Akashvani and Doordarshan during the general election.
Objections raised
- Some parties are questioning the power of the EC though it stands legitimized by the Supreme Court. In Janata Dal (Samajwadi) v Election Commission of India, 1996, the Court held that the EC has the power to rescind the recognition of a national party if that party failed to fulfil the conditions prescribed under the Symbols Order.
- Furthermore, the Court, in Subramanian Swamy v Election Commission of India, 2008, had considered the argument as to whether a symbol reserved for a party due to grant of recognition under the Symbols Order becomes a part of its identity in the minds of the voters and, therefore, should not be taken away due to subsequent de-recognition.
- The Court rejected the contention and held that the EC had every right to deprive a political party of its symbol due to its dismal performance in the elections.
- Another question being asked is whether the EC has been unduly harsh and could have taken a charitable view. The rules are very specific and repeatedly emphasise that a party is eligible “if, and only if” it fulfils all criteria. The EC has no discretion at all as we discovered to our disappointment in 2010.
- More importantly, they can have a maximum of 40 star campaigners whose travel expenses will not be counted in the accounts of the candidates. This is the most important tangible benefit.
- Recognized “state” and “national” parties need only one proposer to file nomination.
- They get two sets of electoral rolls free of cost at the time of revision of rolls. Their candidates get one copy of the electoral roll free of cost during general elections.
- Finally, and more importantly, the parties will have the privilege of consultation with the EC in the setting of election dates, and giving inputs in setting electoral rules and regulations.
- Additionally, top slots on the EVM/ballot paper are reserved for the national parties.