Editorial 1 : A trusted mediator
Introduction: An international peace conference on Ukraine organized by the Swiss on June 15-16 will be a masterclass in understanding the art and craft of the impossible. Not any breakthrough is expected from the conference, but the world is expecting some ice-breaking between the ongoing stalemate between Ukraine and Russia.
Switzerland is a place for global crisis management
- Switzerland represents the US in Iran since the 1979 hostage crisis.
- It has a task force on the Middle East and backs a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine question.
- Swiss diplomacy does not take a stand on terrorist organisations but departing from practice, it recently called Hamas a “terrorist organisation”.
- Berne made it clear that Hamas is not Palestinians — and vice versa. It has offered its good offices to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to speak to all parties in the Middle East to find lasting peace in the region.
- The Cold War thawed when US President Ronald Reagan and Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev met in Geneva in 1985.
- Several Middle East talks have been held in the city, as have the Bosnian Peace negotiations that culminated in the General Framework for Peace in Bosnia, the Dayton Agreement, in 1995.
- These are examples of governments using Swiss back channels.
- The late Archbishop of South Africa was often in Geneva before the fall of the racist regime and ushering in of democracy by Nelson Mandela.
Why Switzerland is the most sought-after nation for negotiation?
- Discretion, even devotion to the cause, and a strong work ethic make Swiss diplomacy stand out.
- Some of the world’s most thorny diplomatic issues have been handled by Switzerland.
- In 2021, Geneva played host to a Biden-Putin summit – the first face-to-face between the two since Biden took office.
- Arms control was high on the agenda. There was no breakthrough but there was much bonhomie when the two met.
- One of the modern world’s oldest democracies, the Swiss value the importance of rule-based progress.
- A fully literate population means people receive a lot of reading material at home to get a grip on issues, and their lawmakers.
- On a single ballot, votes are sought for issues as diverse as a village cycle stand and a decision to elect a politician at the federal level.
- Local, cantonal and federal politics are given equal weightage.
- Broad consultation slows down progress but it a cornerstone for confidence building.
- A country of some nine million people produces 10 of the world’s best-known brands from watches to chocolates to machine tools to banking and insurance.
About international conference on Russia-Ukraine conflict
- The Swiss Foreign Office says that there is now sufficient support for the international conference.
- In addition to achieving a comprehensive, just and lasting peace for Ukraine in accordance with international law and the UN Charter, the meet aims to create a common understanding of a framework favourable to this objective and a concrete roadmap for the peace process.
- American President Joe Biden is expected to bring with him the heft of Western democracy.
- China is currently sitting on the fence, but a wait-and-watch position is their signature when it comes to their ally Russia.
- Russia has said it will not come to the meet in June but continues to engage with the Swiss, including recently when Cassis met his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in New York.
- Diplomats from both countries are in constant parleys.
- A diplomat from a Western P5 nation told me the first day of the meet might be used to call on Russia to attend or engage formally.
- Switzerland has held talks with the G7 members, EU representatives as well as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
- Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia are also in the loop. Over 100 countries have agreed to attend the meeting.
Russian skepticism on Swiss neutrality
- It doesn’t help that Switzerland has frozen the assets of Russian oligarchs in Swiss banks as a punishment for invading Ukraine.
- These are estimated to be $8.81 billion and media reports say four Swiss bankers are hiding Vladimir Putin’s monies in Swiss banks.
- Switzerland is also planning a Ukraine Mine Action Conference in October to de-mine the country and has pledged CHF 100,000 over four years, in addition to expertise and other aid.
- Swiss media reports regularly on Putin’s family living in the country.
- Russia wants to penalise Switzerland for its stance in the Ukraine war by relocating the South Caucasus talks from Geneva to another country.
- This only underscores the fact that Moscow takes Swiss action on Ukraine seriously and has its eyes peeled on every move in the run-up to June.
- Ever since Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked for Switzerland’s support in organising the conference in Davos last January, Berne has been in direct contact with numerous states.
India’s role in the peace conference
- Foreign minister Cassis had travelled to India in March to meet his Indian counterpart S Jaishankar to discuss the peace conference.
- At that time, it was believed India could use its good offices with Russia to persuade President Putin to attend.
- The Indian ambassador’s office told me they have informed New Delhi about the June meet and they are waiting to hear back.
- No roles for countries have been assigned as yet and it will be interesting to see if the conference falls into the usual North-South divide or ploughs new terrain.
What is expected from the conference?
- The June meeting is aimed at getting as many countries around the table as possible to discuss Russia’s frontal attack on Ukraine.
- The meet also hopes to look at some basic tenets of human rights values in a tumultuous world that challenges what is “human” and what is a “right”.
- The Russian attack on Ukraine has shown the continent’s vulnerability — a first since the guns fell silent following World War II in 1945.
- The frontal aggression by Russia has not only challenged Europeans on their turf but also questioned some of the critical bearings of human rights laws.
- The Geneva Conventions and their additional protocols (1950), that form the core of humanitarian law, are wartime discussions and laws.
- There won’t be a final document at the end of the June meeting.
- It will most likely be a salute to gradualism and back-channel diplomacy.
- Some of the biggest successes in democracy often have humble beginnings.
Conclusion: The Alpine nation has a long history of working in conflict zones because it enjoys the trust of warring parties. It has been engaging Russia and is alive to the difficulties of Ukraine.
Editorial 2 : Sense of an opening
Introduction: In the last lap of his high-octane campaign in Coimbatore, where he is the BJP candidate, K Annamalai told this newspaper that the party will win seats “in double digits”, coming in second “in all the remaining seats” in Tamil Nadu this time.
What makes BJP confident about winning seats in Tamil Nadu?
- As all 39 seats in Tamil Nadu go to polls on Friday, the confidence the party’s state president exudes frames the salience that Tamil Nadu has in the BJP’s electoral calculus.
- The southern states — Tamil Nadu, in particular — are key to achieving the party’s goal of “400 paar”.
- The BJP believes that the formidable wall of Dravidian politics will be breached this year, with the electoral contest in Tamil Nadu becoming a three-cornered one.
What makes the Dravidian parties undefeatable in Tamil Nadu?
- In a state that has kept national parties at bay for five decades, this is easier said than done.
- The first challenge for the BJP has been to rid voters of the impression that it is just another party trying to control the state from far-away Delhi.
- Ever since the C N Annadurai government rode to power in Madras state in 1967 and inaugurated the Dravidian era in Tamil politics, power has alternated between the DMK and AIADMK.
- With that landmark victory, the belief that national parties can only damage Tamil interests took deep root.
How BJP is making an inroad in Tamil Nadu?
- BJP embraced state-specific issues like disputes over the island of Katchatheevu.
- Doing this BJP is trying to correct the impression that it is against Tamil interest.
- Its eagerness to shed its image as a “centralising” party is also evident in the free hand that it has given its state president.
- For example, when Annamalai’s persistent attacks on the AIADMK came in the way, from the BJP’s perspective, of a much-needed alliance last year, the response from Delhi was muted.
- The BJP’s other great challenge in the state is overcoming what is seen as an unbridgeable gap between a party of Hindi-speakers and an ancient, proud culture.
- To that end, the BJP has enthusiastically sought to champion the Tamil language and culture at every level — from playing up the centuries-old connection between the north and south via the Kashi Tamil Sangamam, started in 2022, to giving the Sengol, an ancient Chola symbol of power, pride of place in the inauguration of the new parliament building.
- The Prime Minister himself has frequently invoked the state’s contributions, including tracing the lineage of Indian democracy back to an over 1,000-year-old inscription in Tamil Nadu’s Uthiramerur.
Will BJP’s efforts result in winning seats?
- At the booth, where most voters have been loyal to the symbols that have long dominated the state’s political landscape — the DMK’s rising sun and the AIADMK’s two leaves — the BJP’s lotus has been a rare sight.
- The BJP may see an opening for a third party in Tamil Nadu.
- How voters respond to this call will shape the party’s future in navigating the formidable challenge of creating an alternative to Dravidian politics.
Conclusion: BJP's attempt to gain a foothold in Tamil Nadu can open an alternative in a state dominated by Dravidian politics. It won't be easy.