Editorial 1 : Closing the Gulf Circle
Context: What Indian PM’s first visit to Kuwait in four decades means for diplomacy in Middle East
Introduction: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Kuwait this weekend will close the last gap in India’s expanded diplomatic engagement with the Gulf region that is so vital to the country’s security and prosperity.
Historical Context and Challenges
- India’s Neutral Stance in the Gulf Crises
- 1990 Gulf War: India refrained from unequivocally condemning Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait due to its close ties with Iraq.
- Parallels in International Relations: Similar reluctance was seen in India’s responses to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (1979) and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (2022).
- Alignment with Ba’athist Leaders
- India’s affinity with radical nationalist Arab republics (e.g., Iraq, Syria) shaped its foreign policy during the late 20th century.
- India was reluctant to condemn these invasions because Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and Brezhnev’s Soviet Union were, and Vladimir Putin’s Russia is a close partner of India.
- The relationship with Kuwait, unsurprisingly, was a casualty from India’s Iraq policy during 1990-91.
- It was well into the 2000s, when high level visits between Kuwait and India resumed.
- After Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s visit to Kuwait in 1981, Vice President Hamid Ansari’s visit to Kuwait in 2009 was the highest visit.
Transformation of India-Gulf Relations
- Key Areas of Enhanced Engagement
- Economic Ties: Intensified trade relations, particularly in energy and labour exports.
- Security Partnerships: Strengthened defence cooperation and counterterrorism efforts.
- Connectivity Projects: Collaborative infrastructure initiatives aimed at regional development.
- Geopolitical Alignment Post-Assad Era
- The fall of the Assad regime in Syria reduces Ba’athist influence and opens new avenues for India-Kuwait ties.
- Moderate Gulf states are increasingly viewed as natural partners for India due to shared goals of modernization and stability.
Role of Moderate Arab States
- Reform-Oriented Monarchies: Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are promoting religious moderation, social modernisation and economic diversification away from oil dependence.
- Shifting Dynamics with Pakistan: Pakistan’s influence in the Gulf has diminished, enhancing India’s bilateral relations with Arab monarchies.
Challenges and Opportunities for India
- Addressing Regional Contradictions
- Iran, Israel, and Turkey: Understanding the moderate Arab states' concerns about regional hegemony and ideological differences.
- Palestinian Concerns: Supporting a more accommodative Israel could facilitate Arab-Israeli cooperation and stability.
- Leveraging the Abraham Accords: Strengthening ties between Israel and moderate Arab states provides India with opportunities for deeper strategic partnerships in the region.
Conclusion: Having bet on hopes for positive ties between Israel and moderate Arab states in the form of the Abraham Accords, India ought to nudge Israel in the direction of accommodation. Modi’s visit to Kuwait, then, must be seen as an important first step in upping India’s game in a Middle East poised for deep structural change.
Editorial 2 : Building Bridges
Context: Sri Lankan President Dissanayake’s India visit.
Introduction: Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s visit to India in his first overseas trip since becoming Sri Lanka’s president has come at a crucial moment in the bilateral relationship.
Political Stability in Sri Lanka
- Dissanayake’s coalition, National People’s Power (NPP), enjoys a decisive majority in the legislature.
- The strong mandate resolves past issues of fragmented governance in Sri Lanka, enabling Colombo to deliver on commitments.
Key Areas of Economic Cooperation
- Continuation of IMF Programme: Sri Lanka’s commitment to economic recovery while focusing on welfare spending.
- Free Trade Agreement (FTA): Resuming dialogue on an FTA to boost trade and investment.
- Focus Areas include energy supply, technology exchange and an increased Indian FDI in Sri Lanka.
- Digital Public Infrastructure: Development of Aadhaar-like identity systems and UPI payment interfaces to drive Sri Lanka’s digital transformation.
Addressing Longstanding Bilateral Issues
- Challenges: Fishermen and Maritime Boundaries
- Fishermen crossing maritime borders.
- Overfishing in shared waters.
- Proposed Solutions
- High-level diplomatic engagement.
- Exploring coordinated fishing models that serve the interests of fishermen and businesses in both countries.
- Tamil Minority Rights
- Indian Expectations: PM Modi emphasized the need for Sri Lanka to uphold its Constitution and hold provincial council elections.
- India avoided explicit mention of the 13th Amendment, which guarantees minority rights, reflecting the complexity of the issue.
- Sinhala nationalists and the Lankan government’s political compulsions must inform how India approaches the issue as it too has an emotive and political background.
Key Takeaways and Recommendations
- Opportunities for Cooperation
- The visit sets the stage for deeper economic, technological, and strategic partnerships.
- Strong political leadership in Sri Lanka opens avenues for long-term collaborations.
- Managing Challenges
- Addressing sensitive issues like fishermen’s rights and Tamil minority rights demands patience, diplomacy, and mutual understanding.
- India must navigate its concerns about China in Sri Lanka through dialogue rather than dominance.
Conclusion: Both sides need to establish their red lines on the matter of China’s influence in the Indian Ocean and have a clear line of communication. This will prevent misunderstandings and will elevate the relationship to one of the most significant in the Subcontinent.