Editorial 1 : It’s not over until it’s over
Introduction: Those cutting through discussions on global power politics have been making blasé assumptions about the end game of the Russia-Ukraine war. The war has continued for near about two years and there is no sight of ending of this war anytime soon.
The Russia-Ukraine war has become a war of propaganda
- Western propagandists are going the whole hog declaring Russia as a diminished power; its final defeat a matter of time — a veiled swipe also directed at China, which is challenging the US’s global supremacy.
- Putin’s request for help from China and North Korea, plus the threat of using nuclear weapons, signifies the extent of Russia’s decline.
Impact of the war on Russia
- The best and brightest have fled. Sanctions and trade restrictions have withered its economy, especially crumpled profits from energy exports.
- The country’s high-tech industries are being put at risk because of the exodus of global corporations.
- The economy is not expected to grow in the foreseeable future. It will have to simply rely on resource extraction.
- Politically, Russia has become more sclerotic and repressive, unable to tolerate dissent.
- In the diplomatic battle, fewer countries are siding with Russia, not even its Central Asian allies have supported Moscow’s actions.
- Putin had to skip a series of high-profile global events, including the BRICS and G20 summits.
- Ukraine, on the other hand, is all set to join the EU, and NATO is set to incorporate Finland and Sweden.
The status of Ukrainian resistance and its supporters
- Whether Ukraine can withstand the test of time amid growing war fatigue in the US ($113 billion since 2014), with the Republicans now opposing another $24 billion in military aid.
- The war has certainly unified a divided Europe, but as the EU bets on how Ukraine could stir a new wave of integration and enlargement to convert Europe into a “geopolitical force”, it would face a challenge in the form of the Franco-German divide.
- Germany is reluctant to supply weapons to Ukraine, and France is wary of EU enlargement.
- The bloc may also run out of tenacity and eventually seek political expediency to end the conflict.
- There are already signs of the ground shifting. Ukraine’s closest ally Poland, which hosts 2.6 million Ukrainian refugees, is having second thoughts. (“no longer transfer weapons to Ukraine”.
- Finland, the first to abandon neutrality, seems dithering after Moscow halted gas supply — this would increase the cost of living for Nordic countries.
- Already, the fear of the Gaza war distracting attention away from Ukraine is forcing Volodymyr Zelenskyy to push for a global “peace summit” next February.
- In the meantime, the EU has asked Kyiv to meet the EU’s prerequisites (reining in corruption and firming up minority laws) before membership talks can begin by mid-December.
The alternative view: Russia is actually winning the war
- Detractors of the West are pleased that Putin has finally called NATO’s bluff.
- Russia already holds a large portion of the Donbas and Donetsk and may gain more territory if the war persists.
- No matter what prevails on the battlefield, Russia is unlikely to vacate those territories.
- This will weaken Ukraine’s bargaining position for any future prospect of a peace deal.
- This means a state of prolonged frozen conflict accompanied by an arms race, and higher defence spending, a burden that the rest of Europe will have to bear.
Has Russian power damaged irreplaceably?
- Regardless of the war outcome, even a weakened Russia will remain central to European security.
- In the scenario that Putin can crush Ukraine’s resistance, the challenges for Europe would multiply.
- Even the task of rebuilding Ukraine would depend on sustained energy supplies from Russia.
- Russia will remain a formidable military power with a large nuclear arsenal, and disruptive technology to influence the global strategic balance.
- In fact, this war may have taught the Russian military how to deal with NATO’s weaponry.
- One cannot underestimate the Russian strategic culture and its deep-seated history of threat perceptions vis-à-vis others.
- In fact, things may not have come to such a pass if the West had not ignored Moscow’s repeated warnings against NATO’s expansion.
- Therefore, the assumption that Russia is permanently weakened is premature.
Russia is finding new ways to assert its power
- The Russian economy is certainly withering now, but it also showed resilience because of the growing share in the energy markets.
- Moscow has dramatically reoriented its foreign policy/economy toward China, the Middle East, India, and Africa — a historic shift in the global power balance.
Way forward for Russia
- In the years ahead, Russia will be geopolitically tied to Europe, but the scale of its assertion will depend on how widely the US defines its global interests.
- It is already reasserting its influence around the world, especially in the Middle East.
- Ukraine’s fate aside, the conflict in Gaza will shape the future trajectory of Russia’s foreign policy.
- Moscow has tentatively taken steps to improve links with Beijing knowing that the matrix of partnership is imbalanced — in Beijing’s favour.
Conclusion: India’s official Russia policy remains grounded in realism, but a tendency among observers and analysts is to quickly draw on Western conclusions to discard Russia, and berate Putin for his “war of choice”. It would be premature to underestimate Russia’s potential.
Editorial 2 : High and low
Introduction: Governor R N Ravi has withheld assent to 11 Bills passed by the state legislature — threaten to precipitate a constitutional crisis in Tamil Nadu. Ravi’s actions are part of a dismal pattern of blatant politicisation of the high constitutional office.
Recent actions of governor’s contrary to its constitutional mandate
- Ravi’s actions have halted many bills passed by state legislative.
- The bills, passed between January and April, stuck in the limbo of legal loopholes invoked by Ravi are those concerning the power of the state government to appoint university vice-chancellors, prohibition of online gambling, anti-corruption measures and legislation on the NEET.
- The Assembly has called a special session on Saturday to pass these Bills again, even as the larger questions sparked by Ravi’s actions are pending before the SC.
- He has courted controversy earlier by refusing to read out parts of the speech outlining the government’s view in the House.
- He has made statements denigrating the politics of the ruling DMK.
- He crossed the line again in July when he dismissed minister V Senthil Balaji — a decision he took back later.
Supreme court observation about power and position of governor
- In 1974, a seven-judge bench of the Supreme Court, in Shamsher Singh v State of Punjab, ruled that the governor of a state can act “only upon and in accordance with the aid and advice of their ministers, save in a few well-known exceptional situations”.
- Earlier this month, while hearing a petition from states including Tamil Nadu about governors neglecting their duties, the SC reiterated that “governors also cannot be oblivious to the fact that they are not elected representatives” and that their withholding assent to Bills passed by the Assembly is “a serious concern”.
How to restore the constitutional mandate of governor’s office (recommendations)
- On Appointment and Removal of Governor:
- The "Punchhi commission - 2010" recommended that there should be a provision for the impeachment of the governor by the state legislature.
- The state chief minister should have a say in the governor’s appointment.
- On the Use of Article 356:
- The "Punchhi commission - 2010" recommended that Articles 355 & 356 be amended.
- The Sarkaria Commission (1988) recommended that Article 356 should be used in very rare cases when it becomes unavoidable to restore the breakdown of constitutional machinery in the State.
- Recommendations have also been given by the Administrative Reforms Commission (1968), Rajamannar Committee (1971) and Justice V.Chelliah Commission (2002).
- On Dismissal of State Government under Article 356:
- S.R. Bommai Judgment (1994): The case put an end to the arbitrary dismissal of State governments by a hostile Central government.
- The verdict ruled that the floor of the Assembly is the only forum that should test the majority of the government of the day, and not the subjective opinion of the Governor.
- On Discretionary Powers:
- The Supreme Court in the Nabam Rebia judgment (2016) ruled that the exercise of Governor’s discretion Article 163 is limited and his choice of action should not be arbitrary or fanciful.
Way Forward
- Governor’s Discretion Should Be Only Her Discretion:
- For the smooth functioning of government, it is equally essential that the governor must act judiciously, impartially and efficiently while exercising his discretion and personal judgment.
- Strengthening of Federalism:
- In order to check misuse of the office of governor, there is a need to strengthen federal setup in India.
- In this regard, the Inter-State council and the role of Rajya Sabha as the chamber of federalism must be strengthened.
- Reform the Method of Appointment of Governor:
- The appointment can be made from a panel prepared by the state legislature and actual appointing authority should be the Inter-state Council, not the central government.
- Code of Conduct for Governor:
- This 'Code of Conduct' should lay down certain 'norms and principles' which should guide the exercise of the governor's 'discretion' and his powers which he is entitled to use and exercise on his judgment.
Conclusion: Ravi must give his assent to the Bills that are almost certain to be passed, once more, by the legislature. For its part, the Centre must step in, at the very least, to counsel and restrain. It could be a starting point for restoring the constitutional mandate of the office of governor.