Editorial 1 : To get back on track
Introduction: The Indian Railways is back in the news after a freight train rammed into a passenger train on Sunday, June 16, near Siliguri in West Bengal, which left at least nine people dead and more than 40 injured.
The history of deadly train accidents in India
- Since 1995, the country has witnessed seven deadly train accidents, five of which took more than 200 lives — the highest number of deaths, 358, was recorded in the Firozabad collision of 1995.
- The multiple train collision at Balasore in Odisha, about a year ago, claimed 287 lives.
- Together, these seven accidents took more than 1,600 lives.
The significance of railways to India
- Among railway planners, it is widely held that a large, densely populated developing country like India should have a strong railway system that can compete with road and air transport to serve the needs of the people and economy.
- Neither the Railway Board nor the Centre has ever denied this imperative.
- In fact, plans have been repeatedly announced to double the speed of trains while improving safety and drastically increasing line capacity, as most trunk routes have faced acute congestion.
- But the results have been very discouraging.
Railways is raced out by other competitors
- The Indian Railways has consistently lost market share in both passenger and freight streams.
- In fact, since 2010-12, the total volume of both freight and passenger traffic has stagnated or declined, while air and road modes have seen growth of 6-12 per cent each year.
- Between 2014-15 and 2019-20, passenger traffic declined from 995 billion pass-km to 914 billion pass-km, and freight stagnated between 682 and 739 billion net tonne-km.
- For the period after 2019-20 to the present, the Railways has not made these traffic figures public.
The crisis of Indian Railways
- It is no exaggeration that the Indian Railways (IR), which enjoys a monopoly on rail transportation, is facing a severe crisis.
- If the present trend of declining market share continues for another decade, which seems likely in view of the failure to raise speed, increase line capacity, and improve safety to the required, IR could be relegated to a secondary role where it primarily carries heavy freight and some slow-moving passenger trains, as in large, thinly populated, economically advanced countries like the US, Canada, and Australia.
- Surely, with its high population density, a large developing country like India can’t afford such a decline in rail transport.
The Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) report on Railways performance
- The Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) of India has recently issued two important reports on safety, speed, and punctuality on IR.
1. On overall performance
- The report on speed and punctuality for the years 2019-20 says that between 2014 and 2019, there has been no increase in the average speed of mail and express trains —this has remained at 50 to 51 kmph, contrary to claims of achieving an average speed of 75 kmph under Mission Raftar, which has appeared in some form every five to seven years since 2005.
- As for freight trains, the average speed actually declined marginally, contrary to the Board’s claims of doubling the speed.
- It is pertinent to mention that 20 years ago, IR acquired technology and manufacturing capabilities to build coaches and locomotives to raise the maximum operational speed from 110-130 kmph to 160-200 kmph.
2. On railway safety
- The second CAG report, which is on accidents, is equally sobering.
- Though there has been some reduction in the number of accidents, it is largely a result of the manning of unmanned railroad crossings.
- The data shows little improvement with respect to derailments and collisions.
- The report has expressed serious concerns about the continuing high rate of asset failures, particularly signal failures and rail fractures.
- Some of the worst accidents on IR have been due to these.
- Last year’s multiple train collision at Balasore was caused by a signal failure.
The essence of these two CAG reports is that this high asset failure rate, coupled with numerous speed and capacity bottlenecks in the existing IR network, has led to inadequate safety and punctuality and stagnant speed.
The big question mark on future of railways
- While the IR’s existing network was caught in a downward spiral, with increasing intensity every passing year, the country was inundated by big plans for extremely costly projects with seriously questionable financial viability.
- This included, for example, plans for several standalone bullet-train lines which would be cut off from the main broad-gauge network because these lines would be built on standard gauge, and dedicated freight corridors (DFCs), exclusive to heavier and longer trains.
- Construction of the first bullet-train line started in 2017.
- Earlier, in 2012, construction of two DFCs had begun.
- In the past three years, the nation has seen the introduction of about 50 pairs of “semi-highspeed” Vande Bharat trains, which are more about luxury and cosmetics than speed.
Conclusion: West Bengal train accident highlights need for a thorough review of misplaced priorities of past two decades in Indian Railways. Railway Board has failed to raise speed of its excruciatingly slow trains, punctuality has shown no improvement, and safety continues to be worrying.
Editorial 2 : Be self-assured, don’t overreach
Introduction: The new government at Delhi will have to face the new reality of international relations. Deep structural changes are unfolding in the international system that demand major adjustments in India’s worldview and adaptations to its domestic policies. The five imperatives outlined below are by no means the only challenges that will confront the new government, but they are among the main geopolitical imperatives.
1. The return of Great-Power Rivalry
- The return of great-power rivalry that demands an approach driven by interest rather than ideology.
- The renewed conflict between the West on the one hand and China and Russia on the other has begun to produce a very different set of external conditions for the conduct of India’s international relations than the one it had to deal with in 1991.
- At the end of the Cold War marked by the collapse of the Soviet Union, Delhi had the room to engage with all the great powers without looking over its shoulder.
- Although Delhi uses “Strategic Autonomy” or “Multi-alignment” foreign policy, going forward it will become problematic.
- It is applicable for a world where there is some cooperation between great powers and not to the present world, where great powers are at loggerhead to each other.
- Multi-alignment also gives a false sense of symmetry in the relations with the major powers. In the real world, though, there is considerable variation in the current economic and security salience of these relations and their future possibilities.
- Equally important is the logic of geography: Unlike in the Cold War, when the great powers were some distance away, today the second-most important power, China, is India’s neighbour.
- The expansion of India’s own weight in the international system has certainly given some space to Delhi in navigating the new great-power rivalry. But that space is limited and is shrinking.
- As the space for manoeuvrability is diminishing, India has to make cold calculations regarding the sides based on its national interest and shed the idealist notion of ‘strategic autonomy’.
2. The geopolitical imperatives will need new economic reforms in India
- The changing structure of the global economy that demands more reform at home.
- If India adapted to the logic of economic globalisation at the turn of the 1990s, it must now deal with the impact of geopolitics on the global economy.
- Delhi does chant the mantra of trusted geographies, resilient supply chains, and freer trade with strategic partners.
- But it is yet to translate those slogans into concrete outcomes for trade cooperation.
- Meanwhile, there is concern that the government’s capacity for much-needed reforms to cope with the new global dynamic is constrained by the outcome of the 2024 election.
- Dispelling the fears about the government’s will and capacity to pursue domestic economic transformation will be a major task for the new government.
3. The technology development will be at the core of geopolitics
- The unfolding technological revolution promises to redistribute global power and is now an integral part of great-power competition.
- This again has opened the door for accelerated advanced technological development in India.
- The initiative on critical and emerging technologies (iCET) with the US, which was reviewed by the national security advisors of the two countries this week in Delhi, points to that.
- To take full advantage of the new possibilities, though, India will need a modernisation of the advanced S&T sector that has been under the domination of state monopolies.
4. Delhi needs to adapt new emerging regional dynamics
- Delhi must adapt to the rise of new regions that break down old regional categories.
- The emergence of the Indo-Pacific over the last decade cutting across many traditionally defined regions such as South Asia and Southeast Asia is one example.
- The financial power of the Arab Gulf, Africa’s rapid economic growth, and Europe’s southern outreach point to the exciting new opportunities for India to the west of the Subcontinent.
- The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is just one sign of the things to come.
- Delhi must now invest more resources — diplomatic, political, economic, and security — in engaging with Africa, Southern Europe, and the Middle East and erase the old mental maps that saw these regions as separate entities.
5. Tone Down Expansive Rhetoric
- Delhi needs to tone down its expansive rhetoric on India’s rise. There is no doubt that India, well on its way to becoming the third-largest economy, is climbing up the global hierarchy.
- But its aggregate GDP of nearly $4 trillion should not obscure the fact that India’s per capita GDP is barely $2,800.
- If India’s developmental challenges are huge, so is the problem of dealing with growing inequality within.
- India’s growing global influence must, in essence, be about leveraging the world for the rapid expansion of domestic prosperity and equity.
Conclusion: Delhi must also remember that world history is littered with rising powers that crashed on their way up the global order. While its newfound self-assurance is welcome, Delhi should avoid the evident dangers of overreach. Overestimating India’s strength and underestimating the challenges at hand lead to geopolitical hubris and complacency in policymaking that could cost Delhi dearly.