Topic 1 : Hybrid Pakistan
Introduction: In the aftermath of the brazenly rigged elections of February 8, Pakistan has unveiled a new parliament, government and cabinet of ministers, in a spectacle carefully choreographed by its military establishment.
The aftermath of the election
- The latest coalition government is headed by Shehbaz Sharif, the pliant politician who did the army’s bidding in the 16-month Pakistan Democratic Movement government that replaced the government led by Imran Khan but was disbanded for the elections.
- The astute Asif Ali Zardari is back for a second term as president.
- Maryam Nawaz is taking her first stab at governance as Chief Minister of Punjab.
- Her father, the thrice-deposed PM, Nawaz Sharif, has been sidelined, under the looming threat of losing his Lahore parliamentary seat to a recount of votes.
- The victor of the elections, Imran Khan, languishes in Adiala jail, now forbidden from running his post-election politics from there.
- The army has achieved its objective of a “minus Imran” and “minus Nawaz” political landscape, even if Army Chief Asim Munir’s political tricks department could not stop the voters from giving a tantalising glimpse of an alternate universe, where Imran Khan’s PTI would have won and run the government.
The three remarkable elections in Pakistan’s history
- Pakistan’s commentariat recalled three past elections.
- The only free and fair ones, in 1970, led to the break-up of the country, when they awarded the majority to the Awami League and its jailed Bengali leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, leading the largely Punjabi army to conclude that the people of Pakistan could not be trusted with free elections.
- The 1977 elections, rigged by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, led to Zia ul-Haq’s coup and held the lesson that rigging was a science that could not be left to the civilians alone, it needed to be supervised by the army.
- In 2018, the army refined the art of pre-poll engineering to create a “hybrid” regime with the then compliant Imran Khan. It deployed that model again in 2024, failing to factor in public discontent.
- The newspaper, Dawn, pointed out that “though the people of Pakistan managed to deny the powerful (army) what they wanted, the powerful also managed to deny the people the outcome they wanted”.
The Public Relations work of the army after election
- The peculiar caretaker system that Pakistan deploys ostensibly for the conduct of free elections, effectively became a vehicle for the army’s manipulation of the polls.
- In a thinly veiled assertion of political supremacy, the army’s corps commanders met a couple of days after the new PM was sworn in to issue an expansive statement.
- The army’s top body gave itself a clean chit, dismissing criticism of rigging as “malicious efforts to create distortions, confusion and disinformation” and asking the people “to remain positive and united”, to forget the pilfering of their mandate as a bad dream.
- The army will ensure dissenting Pakistanis don’t take to the streets.
The Corporate analogy of Pakistan’s hybrid polity
- In a corporate analogy, the army chief is the powerful CEO presiding over a board of army corps commanders.
- This cohort has selected Shehbaz as the Chief Operating Officer, and Zardari as the largely ceremonial Managing Director.
- While the board will dictate security and foreign policy, the COO has the mandate to keep up the pressure on the jailed (former COO) Imran Khan and to steady the economy with a 6 billion-dollar IMF loan.
- The technocrat CFO approved by the board, banker Muhammad Aurangzeb, is tasked to secure the next IMF bailout and push for reforms.
- The shareholders — the populace — find themselves marginalised, with little agency in steering the nation’s trajectory.
The new government and IMF’s loan
- PM Shehbaz has on reviewing the economy expressed shock, calling it a crisis “higher than the Himalaya”.
- The IMF would require tough reforms: Increasing energy prices and privatising bleeding public sector firms like steel mills and the national carrier PIA.
- A key structural reform — removing the generals from economic management — is above the pay grade of the IMF but should be on the agenda of Pakistan’s overseas mentors.
- India has cautioned the IMF that Pakistan should not use the 24th IMF programme to put cash into the army’s kitty or to repay Chinese debt.
India’s reaction to Pakistan’s election and result
- India’s reaction has been a perfunctory tweet from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which makes it clear that India has no views on Pakistan’s flawed polls.
- India will focus on its own elections, while watching Pakistan with strategic patience.
- PM Modi made an even stronger statement with his “winning hearts” tour of the Kashmir Valley, aimed at reaping the post-Article 370 peace dividend.
- As he delivered a healing touch and a development promise, he made no mention of Pakistan or its export of terror.
- Gone are the days when India would conflate its approaches to Pakistan and Kashmir; the welfare of Kashmir is an internal matter, while dealing with Pakistan is a foreign policy challenge, and the twain will now not meet.
Conclusion: In the recent elections, the people of Pakistan could envision a Pakistan run by Imran Khan's PTI. Instead, the army achieved its objective of a “minus Imran” political landscape. India will be in no tearing hurry to do business with the new management of Hybrid Pakistan; the onus lies on Pakistan now.
Topic 2 : A bank account of her own
Introduction: Financial inclusion is essential for a nation’s sustained development and growth. Its importance in building a sustainable and inclusive future is evident from the significance attached to financial inclusion in the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
The Significance of Financial Inclusion for India
- Financial inclusion is seen as an enabler of eight out of the 17 SDGs.
- India has a below-average score in economy in the Global Gender Gap Report 2023 — health, education and politics are the other criteria in this report.
- The criteria on economy also deal with the gender gap in economic participation and opportunity — this is measured in terms of labour force participation rate and estimated earned income, inter alia.
- Financial inclusion of women helps to close these gaps. Therefore, taking stock is imperative.
Rising financial inclusion of women in India
- As per the World Bank’s Global Findex Database 2021, adult ownership of bank accounts or regulated institutions such as a credit union, microfinance institutions or a mobile money service provider has increased globally by 50 percentage points between 2011 to 2020.
- The increase in India has also been impressive, with a jump of 42 percentage points in this period.
- Moreover, the gender gap in account ownership has also closed substantially in India.
- In this context, the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana, launched in 2014, made a significant impact in enabling the opening of basic savings bank accounts, inter alia, for over 28 crore women (as of January 2024).
- Further, financial inclusion has received a fillip through steps taken to boost the participation of women in the economy – these include the Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana, the National Rural Livelihood Mission (DAY-NRLM), skill training under Skill India Mission, Mission Shakti and social protection schemes such as the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana and Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana.
What does the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) say about FI in India?
- Multiple rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), found more dimensions of steady progress in the financial inclusion of women in India.
- It is heartening that in crucial criteria such as sovereignty over a certain sum of money, possessing a self-operated bank account, awareness about micro-credit programmes and availing of micro-credit schemes, women have clocked gains over the past two decades.
- NFHS data also reveal several individual and household characteristics that have an impact on women’s access to financial services.
- NFHS 5 data, that was collected during 2019-21 for 5.44 lakh women respondents in rural India, one can identify the drivers of ownership and usage of accounts at a formal financial institution, usage of mobile phones for digital modes of payment and knowledge and utilisation of micro-credit programmes.
NFHS data on other socio-economic indicators of women
- It is found that education, skills (particularly digital skills), occupation, access to electronic media and age were significant drivers of financial inclusion among women.
- For instance, educated women were more likely to know about the micro-credit schemes in their locality.
- Women with primary and secondary education were more likely to take a loan from these programmes, whereas women with higher education were less likely to use these programmes as opposed to women with no education.
- This is reasonable because although women with higher education are likely to be aware of and have the wherewithal to access formal channels of credit and lending, micro-credit schemes typically target women with low levels of education – such women find it hard to negotiate formal banking relationships even though they are creditworthy in terms of their entrepreneurial ability.
- It is also found that working women in general — irrespective of their occupation group — were more likely to know about these loan programmes and avail them.
- Educated, digitally skilled, young and employed women were more likely to use digital modes of transaction.
- It is found that the gender of the head of the household and the assets and wealth he or she has, influences access to micro-credit.
What conclusions can be drawn from the NFHS data on women
- This study throws up some important learnings to fine-tune our approach and increase financial inclusion.
- NFHS data suggests that women in women-headed households are favourably placed in owning and using a bank account, in using their mobile phone for digital financial transactions and in accessing micro-credit.
- Therefore, financial inclusion awareness programmes must give special attention to women in households not headed by women.
- Similarly, since skills and education positively impact financial inclusion, it would be advisable to incorporate modules on financial awareness in education and skill development frameworks.
- Given the shifting sands and novel developments in the financial sector, such modules must be updated regularly.
- The increasing use of digital financial transactions among the youth has lent greater urgency to the need to disseminate awareness about cyber safety and safe digital banking practices, especially so given the rising trend of financial cyber-crimes and frauds.
Conclusion: Financial inclusion awareness programmes must give special attention to women in households not headed by women. The NFHS data shows the rising financial inclusion of women in India. The momentum must be maintained and care must be taken to save women from various financial frauds.