Editorial 1: A new global disorder
Recent Context:
- Recently, Visit of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to elevate the Indo-Pacific partnership with India and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow this week to consolidate the Eurasian alliance with the Russian leader Vladimir Putin are two elements of the unfolding geopolitical situations.
- Beyond the great power realignment, there is also a recalibration of relations among major middle powers.
- Last week, to the west of India, we saw the unveiling of a thaw between the two long-time rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia at a ceremony in Beijing.
- Less noticed in India was an even more consequential development to the east the first summit in nearly twelve years between the leaders of two major global economies and neighbours South Korea and Japan.
Recent geopolitical events which have potential to change global dynamism:
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- the Saudi-Iran entente was widely hailed as a diplomatic triumph for Beijing and a setback for Washington, ending the prolonged political chill between Seoul and Tokyo is being hailed the as a major diplomatic win for the US and a big loss for China which had been teasing South Korea away from the US and Japan in recent years. The US has made other gains on China’s periphery.
- It has managed to win the confidence of the new Philippines president Bongbong Marcos. The Philippines is an old treaty ally of the US that was drifting towards China under Marcos’s immediate predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte.
- The agreement between Germany and Japan last week to coordinate their policies on Russia and reduce their excessive dependence on China-centred supply chains
- As Europe and Asia are twains that shall never meet you could not be more mistaken today as the separation between two theatres begins to break down.
- The realignment and dealignment underway is very much part of the emerging post-post-Cold War world. The rules governing the world that emerged at the end of the Cold War during 1989-91 have been under stress for a while now. The Russian aggression against Ukraine and the deepening conflict over Taiwan have accelerated the breakdown. The conflict envelops the economic and technological domains as well.
Adapting to the breakdown of the old order and rearrangement of great power and regional politics
- Most of countries, including India, are adapting to the breakdown of the old order at different speeds and with varying senses of urgency. In the scramble for a rearrangement of great power and regional politics, some trends are enduring and others are about short-term adjustments.
- In the Middle East, the Saudi-Iran rapprochement could be seen as either tactical or strategic as against their past contradictory policies.
- Even Saudis will find it hard to break up their hundred-year-old partnership with the Anglo-American powers. It need to understand effort to limit the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is not an exception in the Middle East.
- The conflict between UAE and Saudi Arabia on the one hand and Qatar on the other was patched up in 2021. Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan is now trying to end his political rift with Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
- Turkey and Iran face deepening domestic crises and have every reason to scale down their foreign policy adventurism of recent decades. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which backed total US confrontation with Iran under Trump, are not so sure about Biden’s policies and are finding it wise to temper their conflict with Tehran.
- Meanwhile, the sharpening contradictions between Russia and China on the one hand and the West on the other, have given regional powers some room for bargaining with both sides. There are so many moving parts to this big picture, what we see today need not necessarily be what we might find tomorrow.
Diplomacy over China and Russia meeting:
- There is speculation that Xi might try and promote a peace settlement between Moscow and Kyiv.
- Others suggest something else Xi might choose to reinforce Putin’s position while talking about peace in Ukraine. Cynical observers say Moscow has done Beijing a great favour by tying down the West into a conflict with Russia in Europe, thereby easing the US pressure on China in Asia. Xi, the argument goes, has a huge stake in bolstering Putin.
- Beyond China’s position on Ukraine peace, the long-term concern for Delhi is Putin’s growing dependence on Xi. There are at least three ways of looking at it from India
- One view is that a weakened Russia will inevitably become a junior partner to China thereby making Moscow a less reliable partner for Delhi in balancing Beijing.
- A second position argues that Russia-India relations are essentially immune to change. It insists Russia will always be an independent great power and that Moscow can keep the ties with Beijing and Delhi on separate tracks despite the growing Sino-Indian contradictions and deepening strategic bonds between Russia and China.
- A third view is less sanguine about the future of the Sino-Russian partnership and would hedge against the worst possible outcomes for India in relation to China.
Conclusion:
- This basic direction has been set over the last decade even as Delhi has held onto its old ties to Moscow. The next few weeks might give us some clues on how India might navigate the turbulence in great power relations
- In May, Indian prime minister will travel to Tokyo to attend the G7 meeting and to Canberra to participate in the Quad summit. The PM is expected to travel to Washington for a state visit later in the summer. Delhi will also have a chance to host both Putin and Xi twice over in the coming months for the SCO and G20 summits. The stage then is set for a potential restructuring of India’s geopolitics in a rapidly changing world.
Editorial 2: Interpol withdraws Red Notice against Mehul Choksi: What it means for him
Recent Context:
- Recently, the removal of fugitive diamantaire Mehul Choksi’s name from the Interpol database of Red Notices has drawn condemnation from the Opposition parties in India, while the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) has sought the restoration of the notice.
What is the case against Mehul Choksi?
- Mehul Choksi is the owner of Gitanjali Group, a jewellery firm with 4,000 stores in India. He, along with his nephew Nirav Modi, are wanted in the Rs 13,500 crore Punjab National Bank (PNB) scam.
- Choksi and Modi are accused of conniving with bank officials to have fraudulent Letters of Undertaking (LoU) and Foreign Letters of Credit issued to companies owned by them. In this case, no securities were kept by the PNB before issuing the LoUs.
- Choksi is wanted in India for criminal conspiracy, criminal breach of trust, cheating and financial misappropriation. An arrest warrant has been issued against him.
- Choksi had acquired the citizenship of Antigua and Barbuda in 2017 and was living there from 2018. However, he went missing from Antigua and Barbuda on May 23, 2021, and was soon caught in Dominica. While Choksi claimed he was kidnapped, he was charged with illegal entry by the police in Dominica. In May last year, Dominica dropped these charges against him
What is an Interpol Red Notice
- Criminals or suspects often flee to other countries to evade facing justice. A Red Corner Notice, or Red Notice (RN) alerts police forces across the world about fugitives who are wanted internationally.
- Interpol says “Red Notices are issued for fugitives wanted either for prosecution or to serve a sentence. A Red Notice is a request to law enforcement worldwide to locate and provisionally arrest a person pending extradition, surrender, or similar legal action.”
- RNs contain information that helps identify wanted persons, such as their names, dates of birth, nationality, and physical attributes such as the colour of their hair and eyes, as well as pictures and biometric data such as fingerprints, if they are available. RNs also mention the crime(s) they are wanted for.
- An RN is only an international wanted persons’ notice; it is not an international arrest warrant.
Why was the Red Notice issued against Choksi?
- The Red Notice was issued against Choksi in December 2018 on a request from the CBI and Enforcement Directorate. His appeals against the decision were rejected in 2020.
Why has it been revoked?
- Welcoming the Interpol’s decision, Choksi’s lawyer Vijay Aggarwal told ANI that the withdrawal of the Red Notice comes after the “genuine claim of kidnapping” by the fugitive diamantaire. “Ultimately, truth has prevailed as the kidnapping attempt of my client is not approved by the international community, RCN issued against my client by Interpol has been removed”.
What does the move mean for Choksi?
- The removal of the Red Notice means Choksi can travel around the world freely without any fear of being arrested by law enforcement agencies. The exception is India, where he faces multiple cases. This also weakens India’s efforts to extradite him.
What has the CBI said?
- The CBI said that the CCF’s decision is “based on mere imaginary conjunctures and unproven surmises”. It said the CCF has subsequently clarified to CBI that its decision in no manner has any determination on any guilt or innocence of Mehul Chinubhai Choksi for crimes he remains charged in India.
Is an RN a warrant of arrest?
- An RN is only an international wanted persons’ notice;
- it is not an international arrest warrant. Interpol itself does not want individuals; they are wanted by a country or an international tribunal.
- This means the Interpol cannot compel law enforcement authorities in any country to arrest the subject of an RN.
- It is up to individual member countries to decide what legal value to give to an RN, and the authority of their national law enforcement officers to make arrests.
- The Interpol says that an RN must comply with its constitution and rules. It says on its website that “every Red Notice request is checked by a specialised task force to ensure it is compliant with (Interpol) rules”.
What are some other Interpol notices? Interpol issues eight different types of international notices, most of them colour-coded. They include the Red Notice, Green Notice, Yellow Notice, Orange Notice, Blue Notice, Purple Notice, Black Notice, and an INTERPOL–United Nations Security Council Special Notice.
- Red Notice: It is issued to seek the location and arrest of wanted persons for prosecution or sentencing.
- Yellow Notice: To help locate missing persons or to help identify persons who are unable to identify themselves.
- Blue Notice: To collect additional information about a person’s identity, location, or activities in connection with a crime.
- Black Notice: To seek information on unidentified bodies.
- Green Notice: To issue warning about a person’s criminal activities, in case the person is considered a possible threat to public safety.
- Orange Notice: To warn about an event, a person, an object, or a process that poses a serious and imminent threat to public safety.
- Purple Notice: To collect or provide information on modus operandi, objects, devices, and concealment methods used by criminals.
