Editorial 1 : A Terror Attack, many Signals
Context: After recent terror episode, a wake up call in J&K
The Recent Terror Attack
- The terror attack on the employees of the infrastructure company constructing the Z-Morh tunnel is not an ordinary event.
- The attack needs to be seen from two angles i.e.
- Revival of terror in J&K as a whole.
- Unusual run of activities in the last few days which seem to point towards a larger ploy to send us a message about our vulnerabilities.
Reviving Terror in Jammu & Kashmir
- The Pakistani deep state likely does not want peace in J&K, especially after the smooth conduct of recent elections and the establishment of a democratic government in Srinagar.
- The deep state and the sponsors of the proxy war wish to re-establish their relevance in the narratives around J&K.
- Diversionary Tactics: Violence in the Jammu region, although high in intensity, was essentially diversionary.
- Centre of Gravity: Kashmir remains the central issue for Pakistan's deep state.
- Losing Kashmir to India’s narratives of development, transparency, and tolerance would severely damage Pakistan’s claims on the region.
- The abrogation of Article 370 has already weakened Pakistan’s position, making the revival of terror essential for them to stay relevant.
Targeting Strategic Projects
- The focus of attacks is shifting to projects of strategic importance in less-secured peripheral areas.
- Terrorists could exploit the vulnerabilities in regions like Gurez Valley or Mashkoh for future attacks, especially on key infrastructure projects.
- Infrastructure projects at risk:
- Z-Morh Tunnel: A flagship project requiring specialized labour.
- Kishanganga Project: Located near the LoC.
- Uri 1 and Uri 2 Hydroelectric Projects: Situated in the Jhelum Valley.
- Railway Projects: Around Banihal and Qazigund.
- These projects are critical to J&K's development and hence are prime targets for terror groups aiming to disrupt normalcy.
Larger Pattern of Unusual Events
- The Z-Morh attack is part of a broader pattern of unusual events targeting India, including:
- Bomb hoax threats to aircrafts.
- Explosions in unexpected areas like Rohini in Delhi.
- Diplomatic pressure on India over accusations of transnational assassinations.
- These incidents suggest a larger strategy to put India on the defensive and undermine its emerging strategic confidence.
Political Response
- Key political figures like the Abdullahs have condemned Pakistan’s role in sponsoring violence in J&K, which is crucial in building a united political front.
- The absence of earlier pre-poll demands for talks with Pakistan in their speeches is significant, indicating a shift in political posturing.
Conclusion: The proxy war in J&K is far from over. The reduced frequency of violent incidents should not lead to complacency. India must continue to strengthen its security apparatus, particularly in protecting infrastructure projects and countering Pakistan’s attempts to revive terror networks in J&K.
Editorial 2 : Berlin-Delhi Reconnection
Context: In German chancellor’s India visit, a chance for deeper ties with Berlin
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Visit to India
- Olaf Scholz’s visit to India is crucial for strengthening the Indo-German strategic partnership.
- Indo-German summit could be consequential for the bilateral strategic partnership, as well as India’s relations with collective Europe.
Significance of Indo-German Relations
- India and Germany share a long history of strong ties, formalized through a strategic partnership in 2000.
- Although these relations have been important, they have not always translated into concrete outcomes.
- Scholz aims to change this by resetting the relationship at a time when global politics, especially with regard to Ukraine, is rapidly changing.
In Ukraine-Russia War Context
- Germany, the most important power in Europe, is ready to reset the Indian relationship amid arguments over Ukraine seems counter-intuitive.
- India’s reluctance to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine angered many in Europe. India’s purchase of large volumes of discounted oil added to their frustrations.
- The extended conflict has pushed Germany to reevaluate and strengthen ties with India.
Germany’s New Geopolitical Role
- Germany, long hesitant to take on a significant geopolitical role since World War II, is now rethinking its global stance due to:
- Russian expansionism in Europe
- China’s assertiveness in Asia
- De facto alliance between Moscow and Beijing
- Growing volatility in US policies
- These changes are forcing Berlin to step up its responsibilities on the global stage, particularly in Asia and Eurasia.
Country-specific paper: Germany’s Strategic Approach to India
- Berlin recognises the growing international salience of India in the economic and geopolitical domains.
- Germany wants to benefit from India’s diverse expertise as a central player in international politics with a prominent position in the Global South.
- Germany notes the divergence with India on Russia’s war in Ukraine, but recognises the need to build bridges through dialogue in a spirit of trust and identify joint initiatives.
- Germany appreciates India’s willingness to help find a peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine.
- It underlines the importance of deeper economic ties with India in the increasingly turbulent Indo-Pacific.
- This is a major break from the tradition of putting China First in Germany’s Asian economic policy.
- For Delhi, there could be no better partner in reviving India’s manufacturing sector.
- Germany wants to be a strong security partner for India.
Potential Defence Cooperation
- One of the most significant developments could be Germany’s offer to expand arms cooperation, including assisting India in producing its own weapons.
- Negotiations on the purchase of German submarines by India could further prove Germany’s commitment to building a strong defence partnership.
Conclusion and Way Forward
- Chancellor Scholz’s visit has the potential to bring about a new era of Indo-German cooperation, especially in areas like defence, economic diversification, and geopolitical strategy.
- Strengthening ties with Germany would balance India’s growing relationships with other global powers like the US and France, adding more stability to India’s position in the international arena.