Topic 1: Poised for Viksit Bharat
Introduction: The BJP has recently won three state elections. It has embarked on Viksit Bharat Sankalp (resolve for a developed country) yatras in these states. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been assuring that by 2047, India will be a developed country.
What is a developed country?
- The World Bank defines high-income economies as those with an annual per capita Gross National Income (GNI) of more than $13,846, upper middle-income economies between $4,466 and $13,845, and lower-middle-income economies between $1,136 and $4,465.
- India is today in a lower-middle income category. To become a high-income economy, it needs to cross the barrier of per capita GNI of $13,846 by 2047.
How can India achieve the status of developed nation by 2047?
- To examine the plausibility of this, India need to look at three major indicators of prosperity — incremental increases in overall GDP and per capita incomes over specified long periods, changes in inequality of incomes in that country and the rate of overall inflation and exchange rate changes in the currency of that country.
- Notwithstanding their limitations, these are key indicators that are used to track prosperity by multilateral agencies like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
- The latest report of IMF on India (2023) puts India in a very bright spot despite gloomy global conditions.
- India took 67 years, from 1947 to 2014, to become a $2 trillion economy, as per the World Bank estimates.
- But during the 10 years of the Modi government, India will add another $2 trillion to become a $4 trillion economy by 2024.
- That’s a big jump in the overall prosperity of India. If the Modi government secures a third term, of which BJP feels pretty confident today, it is likely to add another $2 trillion in just 5 years, making India a $6 trillion economy by 2029.
- This progressive addition in GDP prosperity of $2 trillion each time, first in 67 years, then in 10 years, and then in just 5 years, is nothing short of a miracle.
- In purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, India is already a $10 trillion economy.
What has helped Indian growth and what will be the driver of future growth?
- A major factor behind these rapid increments is the policy shift since 1991 economic reforms, which continued at varying speeds and shade under various governments.
- Even during Manmohan Singh’s period, from 2004 to 2014, GDP more than doubled from $0.71 trillion to $2.04 trillion.
- The Modi government has given a big push to infrastructure along with providing basic facilities to people — these include toilets, drinking water, pucca houses under the PM Awas scheme and access to electricity.
- These assets have augmented welfare as well as growth in the economy.
- If one continues building on this and doubles up on human development through quality education and skill formation, coupled with liberal market policies, the dream of Viksit Bharat by 2047 could be within India’s reach.
Per Capita Income:
- At the individual level, however, prosperity is measured by per capita income.
- India’s per capita income increased from $624 in 2004 to $1,560 in 2014, and $2,411 in 2022.
- It seems a long way to the threshold entry point of $1,3846, designated for a high-income category.
- But one should keep in mind that per capita income increased by 2.5 times during the 10 years of Manmohan Singh government.
- If India can keep up that momentum over the next two and half decades, it can hope to reach the high-income threshold.
- Interestingly, in PPP terms, GDP per capita was already at $7,112 in 2022.
- One dollar in India can buy roughly three times more goods and services than what it can buy in the US.
- As a result, the headcount ratio of people in extreme poverty, measured at $2.15 a day (2017 PPP), has come down from 39.9 per cent in 2000 to 11.9 per cent in 2021.
Income Inequality:
- The Gini Index, which measures inequalities in income, was 34.4 in 2004 when the Manmohan Singh government took over, and this index is 34.2 in 2021, the latest year for which data is available.
- The income shares amongst population groups are more or less similarly divided as they were in 2004.
- Inequalities are higher in BRICS countries, especially South Africa, Brazil, and even China.
Inflation:
- India’s inflation, during the Modi period, has remained largely within the RBI’s band of 4 per cent +/-2 per cent.
- It is lower than the inflation during the UPA period.
Foreign Reserves:
- And, with more than $600 billion in foreign exchange reserves, the RBI can avert any sudden depreciation of currency.
- All these factors have provided financial stability with high growth rates.
Conclusion: If India stays the course, keeping Arjuna’s eye on growth with contained inflation, focusing more on investments and innovations than doles, its sankalp of Viksit Bharat can materialise by 2047. The only caveat is that there is no Covid type disease outbreak, or a major war, natural calamity, or political upheaval.
Topic 2: Hold to account
Introduction: Two weeks ago, after the Supreme Court endorsed the abrogation of Article 370, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said it was not just a “legal judgment” but a beacon of hope, a promise of a brighter future.
Recent events which dim the hope of a brighter future for Kashmir
- Last Thursday, four soldiers were killed and three others injured in a militant ambush on two army vehicles in Poonch district.
- A day later, eight civilians from the district’s Topa Pir area were picked up for questioning by the security forces. Three of them have been found dead in the night.
- Five injured civilians have been admitted to a government hospital in Rajouri.
- Their relatives have alleged torture. There cannot be any questioning of the need to be vigilant against terrorism.
- The Poonch attack is a worrying reminder that militant attacks remain a part of J&K’s landscape.
- But the allegations of custodial violence speak of a brutal, unacceptable high-handedness by the security forces.
- This is not “Naya Kashmir” that the Centre talks about, these are the worst ghosts of the past.
- The charges, the circumstances, must be thoroughly investigated and the guilty brought to book.
The changed picture of Kashmir in NDA government's time
- On December 6, Home Minister Amit Shah told Lok Sabha that there was a 70 per cent decline in incidents of terrorism, a 72 per cent fall in deaths of the civilians, and 59 per cent decline in deaths of security force personnel in J&K between the UPA (2004-2014) and NDA (2014-2023) periods.
- Home Ministry data also shows a consistent decline in incidents of stone pelting in the last three years.
- And yet the fact is that in J&K, where mainstream politics and politicians are still marginalised, a drop in violence can, by no means, be seen as all-is-well.
- Sustaining peace requires constant investment in building local peoples’ trust in the administration and security forces as much as in development and expansion of opportunity.
What should be the way forward for government?
- Clearly, those who behind the ambush were hoping to throw a spoke in the government’s approach to J&K, post the Supreme Court verdict.
- In a concurring note to the Supreme Court judgment, Justice Sanjay Kishan Kaul had talked of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission to investigate human rights violations by state and non-state actors.
- That may not be on the government’s anvil currently but its message has acquired increased resonance after the terrorist attack and its aftermath.
- No time must be lost in applying the healing touch.
Here are some specific steps that the Indian government could take:
- Increase investment in development projects in Kashmir, such as roads, schools, and hospitals.
- Provide scholarships and other educational opportunities to Kashmiri students.
- Create jobs in Kashmir by attracting businesses to the region.
- Improve the quality of healthcare in Kashmir.
- Protect the human rights of all Kashmiris.
- Return the Statehood of Jammu and Kashmir UT and hold assembly elections there.
- Allow freedom of speech and assembly.
- Investigate allegations of human rights abuses by security forces.
- Hold security forces accountable for their actions.
- Begin a dialogue with Kashmiri leaders and communities.
Conclusion: The promise of a job and compensation is a right step but much more significant and pressing is the need to make it clear that no one, in “Naya Kashmir”, can get away with murder. Failure to do so will be playing into the hands of the terrorist.