Editorial 1 : The fertility myth
Introduction: On June 13, the Supreme Court of India stayed the release of the film Hamare Baarah (Our Twelve), originally called ‘Hum Do, Hamare Barah (Two of Us, Our Twelve)’, and directed the Bombay High Court to take a final decision. Recently, a propaganda of Muslim population is going to outrun Hindu population in India is propelled that needed to be countered.
The myth Of India’s Muslim population ‘explosion’
The Total Fertility rate dropped in India
- The latest National Family Health Survey, 2019–20 (NFHS–5), conducted by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), shows that many states have already attained a replacement level of fertility, and there is a steady decline in India’s total fertility rates (TFR).
- According to the NHFS-5 data, the TFR in India is 2.0 children per woman up until 2021, which is slightly lower than the replacement level of fertility of 2.1 children per woman.
- The Economic Survey 2018-19 and the Sample Registration System (SRS) data from 2017 also had similar findings about the deceleration of India’s population growth.
Similar drop is seen for Muslim population
- According to the 2011 Census of India, the growth rate of the Muslim population was higher than the Hindu population.
- The controversy surrounding this single interpretation obscured the fact that the gap between the two growth rates had significantly reduced between 2001 and 2011, a crucial piece of information that contradicts the claims.
- When comparing the fertility differentials between the two communities using the 2001 and 2011 data, this convergence of fertility between Hindus and Muslims is evident.
- It comes with the caveat that since different states and groups are at different points in this transition, there are variations between regions in this process of convergence — a fact evidenced by earlier studies.
- Another recent analysis taking into account the drop in fertility and the rate of decline in population growth found that the drop in Hindu fertility was five per cent less than the drop in Muslim fertility in the last two decades, where Muslim population growth declined at a faster rate than that of Hindus.
- This analysis suggested that there may be “absolute convergence” in Hindu-Muslim fertility rates by 2030.
- The fertility rate for Muslims has decreased by almost half from 4.4 in 1992–93 to 2.4 in 2020–21.
- A Pew Research Centre study also stated that there has been an overall decline in fertility rates across religious groups in India, with gaps between religious communities decreasing.
The factor behind the decline in India’s TFR is secular
- The Population Foundation of India observed that education, healthcare, and socio-economic development significantly impact fertility rates, with states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu showing lower TFRs than Bihar, which had less access to these resources.
- Thus, what influenced levels of fertility rates was not religion, but rather better socio-economic status and development.
Challenging misinformation
- The NFHS 5 data also shows that the higher the level of the mother’s education, the lower the fertility.
- Across religious groups, Muslims are the most disadvantaged economically, with poorer education and health levels — evident from their lower enrolment levels in higher education.
- The Sachar Committee Report in 2006 emphasised such socio-economic disparity among Muslims.
- Thus, the population growth debate should focus on investments in education, economic development, livelihoods, food, nutrition, healthcare, sexual and reproductive health services, and gender justice.
- Furthermore, women, particularly from marginalised communities, have limited freedom to make fertility decisions and controlled access to contraception and reproductive care.
The rhetoric around high Muslim fertility rate is detrimental to women’s dignity
- The rhetoric about the fertility of the Muslim community directly affects Muslim women’s right to have or not have children.
- This not only violates Muslim women’s right to life and dignity but also affects their subjectivities.
- Hence, the discussion concerning population growth and fertility must shift focus and centre on sexual and reproductive health rights, individual choice, and resist attempts at co-optation for politically motivated propaganda.
Conclusion: To vilify a community through misinformation and then compound their experiences of unjust treatment through the normalisation of this rhetoric is unacceptable, discriminatory, offensive, misleading, and promotes divisiveness. Feminists, and women organisations must challenge and resist broader attempts at polarisation by foregrounding facts, data, and a commitment to protect the right to determine reproductive outcomes.
Editorial 2 : A strategic window
Introduction: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to North Korea and Vietnam last week and this week’s presidential debate in the US between incumbent Joe Biden and challenger Donald Trump highlight the complex and deepening interconnections between European and Asian security that offer new strategic opportunities for middle powers like India.
Four dimensions of the new “Eurasian” geopolitics stand out.
1. Asia is no longer a passive player in European geo-politics
- During colonial times, Asian resources (like Indian military) were crucial for European powers.
- Now, Asian states have a say:
- Both Russia and Western Europe seek Asian support in the Ukraine war.
- Asian countries can choose who to support, impacting the balance of power.
- The last month’s peace conference over Ukraine issue was a way to woo global south by Ukraine and western countries.
- Asia is a major arms supplier in the Ukraine conflict:
- South Korea sends arms to Ukraine, North Korea to Russia.
- China indirectly supports Russia's war effort.
- US wants Japan to increase arms production to aid Ukraine.
2. Asia has more agency in dealing with great powers due to the current conflict
- Russia seeks to rebuild ties with North Korea (signing a treaty) to challenge the West.
- North Korea can leverage Russia to improve its position with other powers (China, Japan, South Korea, US).
- This could lead to a stronger US-South Korea partnership.
- Russia’s assistance to North Korea in modernising nuclear arsenal will prompt South Korea to nuclearize itself.
- Vietnam's hosting of leaders from all sides (US, China, Russia) shows its agency in balancing relationships.
- Its is one of the few countries whose economic relation with US and China is growing simultaneously.
3. As Asian manoeuvrability increases, Western dilemmas are sharpening.
- One of the major fault lines in the American debate on foreign policy is squaring the competing imperatives in Europe and Asia. (The political divisions on the question of American support to Israel appear less salient).
- After the Second World War, the US-dominated both European and Asian theatres.
- Thanks to the Russia-China alliance unveiled just days before Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022, and the scale of the challenge presented by the two powers in Europe and Asia, America is under some pressure to define the source of its primary challenge.
- An important section of the Republican foreign policy establishment argues that the US should not waste its energies on the Ukraine war and concentrate its military power in Asia.
- The Biden Administration agrees that China is the principal challenge but is not in a position to disentangle itself from supporting Ukraine.
- The arguments on this question might be heard in the debate between Trump and Biden this week.
4. Europe needs to take more responsibility for its own defence
- US wants Europe and Asian allies (Australia, India, Japan, S. Korea) to share the burden against Russia and China.
- Europe is anxious about Russia but divided on how to deal with China:
- Doesn't fully agree with US strategy.
- Hopes to influence China to restrain Russia.
- Economic ties with China make confrontation difficult.
- US encourages Asian allies to contribute to European security as well.
The great churn in geo-politics and rise of middle powers
- The great churn triggered by the growing interdependence of the European and Asian theatres is accompanied by the rise of middle powers whose influence is growing across Eurasia.
- The US is eager to build strong security partnerships with the middle powers to balance China and Russia.
- The new American emphasis on “integrated deterrence” gives the middle powers like India an unprecedented opportunity to enhance their comprehensive national power, including military capabilities.
Conclusion: This strategic window is unlikely to last forever. The question is whether the Indian bureaucracy can move fast enough to seize the current international possibilities for the urgent modernisation of India’s defence industrial base and the rapid expansion of arms production at home. Self-sufficiency in arms production, after all, is the essence of the much-vaunted “strategic autonomy”.