Editorial 1 : The Biden Pragmatism
Introduction: The current Israel-Hamas conflict in Middle east has raised the concern of overstretching of USA’s capability to deal on multiple fronts.
USA’s Challenge
- The growing collaboration among Russia, China and Iran to create nuisances on multiple fronts against USA led west.
- At the same time maintaining domestic demand of not spending too much funds on foreign wars.
USA’s success in containing these challenges
- The Russian invasion in Ukraine consolidated the European powers, strengthened and expanded NATO.
- USA’s gain in Asia is impressive.
- Increase in Japan’s defence budget,
- promoting normalisation of ties between Tokyo and Seoul,
- renewing defence cooperation with the Philippines,
- signing a strategic partnership agreement with Communist Vietnam,
- unveiling the AUKUS partnership with Australia and the UK,
- strengthening the Quad, and enhancing bilateral ties with India.
- Above all, the US has expanded its military support for Taiwan and is raising the costs of a potential Chinese invasion.
- Despite these successes, USA has to deal with domestic demand of ending its support to Ukraine and mobilising its resources to support Israel instead. This gives the impression that USA is incapable of handling multiple conflicts simultaneously.
It is unwise to underestimate USA’s strategic resilience
- USA has always balanced between the domestic demand of isolation from global affairs and strategic demand of engagement with global affairs.
- USA’s decline is overstated as USA still contributed 24% of global GDP, at the same time China’s rise is also overstated (the stagnation in Chinese economy).
- On defence front USA’s spending is still more than next 10 countries spending combined.
- On diplomatic front also, USA holds the sway. It can mobilise international opinion on any global affair.
- The structure of great power conflicts too favours USA.
- As a distant power USA can isolate itself from global conflict, at the same time mould these conflicts in favour of its national interest.
- In the front of alliance formation, USA is ahead of Russia and China. Both these countries have either ideological or financial might, but USA has all the power to pull a nation in its sphere of influence.
Conclusion: Planners in Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran might bet that fanning multiple fires could trip up Washington and overstretch its resources. While the challenges confronting the US are complex and demanding, Washington has the will, resources and room for much geopolitical manoeuvre.
Editorial 2 : Warming up, breaking the ice
Introduction: The warming of arctic region and melting up the polar ice are accelerating the global warming phenomena. The global powers are concerned with their national interest forgetting the interest of ‘global common’. In that scenario India can help in generating consensus among global powers.
What is happening with the Arctic?
- The Arctic is warming at a rate four times faster than the global average, leading to an unprecedented loss of sea ice, as well as the thawing of permafrost.
- Continued Arctic change risks losing the North Pole’s “great white shield” and unleashing vast quantities of stored carbon.
- This can trigger multiple catastrophic and irreversible climate tipping points.
- Protection of the Arctic is, therefore, crucial to protect the world from the worst effects of the climate emergency.
What causes Arctic Warming?
- Global warming, expedited due to anthropogenic forces since pre-industrial times and has increased the planet’s average temperature by 1.1 degrees Celsius.
- While changes are witnessed across the planet, any change in the surface air temperature and the net radiation balance tend to produce larger changes at the north and south poles.
- This phenomenon is known as polar amplification; these changes are more pronounced at the northern latitudes and are known as the Arctic amplification.
- Among the many global warming-driven causes for this amplification, the ice-albedo feedback, lapse rate feedback, water vapour feedback and ocean heat transport are the primary causes.
- Sea ice and snow have high albedo implying that they are capable of reflecting most of the solar radiation as opposed to water and land.
- In the Arctic’s case, global warming is resulting in diminishing sea ice.
- As the sea ice melts, the Arctic Ocean will be more capable of absorbing solar radiation, thereby driving the amplification.
- The ice-albedo feedback and the lapse rate feedback are responsible for 40% and 15% of polar amplification respectively.
What are the consequences of Arctic warming?
- The causes and consequences of Arctic amplification are cyclical — what might be a cause can be a consequence too.
- The unusual summer temperatures resulted in a melt of 6 billion tonnes of ice sheet per day, amounting to a total of 18 billion tonnes in a span of three days, enough to cover West Virginia in a foot of water.
- In 2019, Greenland ice melt was the single biggest cause for the rise in the sea level, about 1.5 metres.
- If the sheet melts completely, the sea level would rise by seven metres, capable of subsuming island countries and major coastal cities.
- The warming of the Arctic Ocean and the seas in the region, the acidification of water, changes in the salinity levels, is impacting the biodiversity, including the marine species and the dependent species.
- The Arctic amplification is causing widespread starvation and death among the Arctic fauna.
- The permafrost in the Arctic is thawing and in turn releasing carbon and methane which are among the major greenhouse gases responsible for global warming.
- The thaw and the melt will also release the long-dormant bacteria and viruses that were trapped in the permafrost and can potentially give rise to diseases.
- The best-known example of this is the permafrost thaw leading to an anthrax outbreak in Siberia in 2016, where nearly 2,00,000 reindeer succumbed.
The impact of Arctic Warming on global south
- Recent research shows an intricate correlation between the melting of Arctic Sea ice and extreme rainfall events during the Indian summer monsoon.
- The monsoon is crucial to agriculture and livelihoods, making up 80 per cent of South Asia’s rainfall.
World powers are ignoring Arctic Warming
- Arctic is becoming the theatre of geo-political contestation.
- Russia is using the thawing northern sea route for commercial purposes, petroleum exploration.
- Other Arctic countries are also planning oil and gas development endeavours, despite a growing number of banks committing to abstain from financing such projects.
- Despite such development pressure, the Arctic council has delayed its meeting due to Russian invasion of Ukraine.
What is Arctic Council?
- The Arctic Council is a high-level intergovernmental body set up in 1996 by the Ottawa declaration to promote cooperation, coordination and interaction among the Arctic States together with the indigenous communities and other Arctic inhabitants.
- Members of the Arctic Council: Ottawa Declaration declares Canada, the Kingdom of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, Sweden and the United States of America as a member of the Arctic Council. Denmark represents Greenland and the Faroe Islands.
How can India help?
- The council has no member from global south.
- India is an observer member. It can bring the concern of global south to the council.
- The New Delhi Leader’s Declaration demonstrated India’s ability to navigate the conflicting interests of the Global North and the Global South.
- India can use the remaining period of G20 presidency to raise the Arctic Warming concerns as part of a constructive conversation on climate governance.
Conclusion: World need global consensus on the conservation of Arctic ecosystem. As India takes greater steps towards leading the Global South, its post-G20 future should involve pushing for these reforms and ensuring that climate protection is at the forefront of global Arctic policymaking.