Editorial 1 : A Revival on the Cards
Context: Revival on the cards for Indian economy
Introduction: India’s economy continues to grow at a healthy pace i.e. above 7% but there has been some debate on the underlying momentum. Performance of companies in the consumer goods space reflect urban stress.
Positive Indicators
- PMI: The purchasing managers index for both services and manufacturing has been in the region of 57-60 for the last three months.
- Any number above 50 is positive, and the average so far this year is above 60 for the composite index — the highest in the last five years.
- GST: GST collections in the first seven months of the year have topped at Rs 12.74 lakh crore. This is higher than last year’s tally of Rs 11.64 lakh crore.
- Two-wheeler sales have risen by 16% for the first seven months of the year.
- Passenger car sales had slowed down in September over August but rose by 9% in October when the festival season began.
Rural Economy
- Muted Demand: Rural demand has been muted in the last couple of years due to a combination of lower farm output and higher inflation.
- A good kharif crop could address the first part of the problem.
- The area under cultivation this year is much higher compared to last year, pointing to good harvests for cereals, pulses and oilseeds.
- Farm output growth this year should be at a robust 3.5-4%, and this could support demand.
Inflation
- Inflation remains a worrying proposition. At 6.2%, it is being driven by food prices.
- The positive sign here is that the next crop of onions and tomatoes should be arriving by December. The kharif harvest should lead to an improvement in supplies of pulses, a major pain point in the past.
- Therefore, food inflation should moderate by the end of this calendar year with the base effect also kicking in December.
Investments
- This year, the investment momentum has been healthy even though the start was slow.
- Government Investment: The general election caused a slowdown in the central government’s capex. States too were affected.
- Private Investment: Private investment tends to align with government capex but the sources of funding, namely, bank credit, debt issuances as well as ECBs, point to a K-shaped pattern in investment activity.
Infrastructure Sector
- The demand for funds has come from sectors related to infrastructure activity, including metals, cement, machinery, chemicals and power.
- Housing: The housing sector has been doing well at the premium and middle levels and the momentum has spread to tier-2 and tier-3 cities.
- Power: Power sector investment is focused on renewables, which have seen large capacity increases.
- Consumer Goods: The existing capacity is not being used, which has come in the way of new investments.
Way Forward
- The two main engines i.e. consumption and investment looking positive.
- RBI has maintained its growth forecast at 7.2%.
- The victory of Donald Trump does suggest some action on immigration, import tariffs and corporate taxes, all of which can be inflationary.
- The inflation rate virtually rules out any rate cut in the December policy.
Editorial 2 : Eat Clean, By All Means
Context: Diet as a cancer cure: What Navjot Singh Sidhu didn’t tell you
Introduction: Breast Cancer in India
- Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in India, accounting for 28.2% of all cancers that affect them.
- According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), the five-year survival rate is 66.4%, compared to 90.2% in developed countries like the US, largely because of lack of access to early diagnosis and care.
- Although the number of patients continues to increase because of awareness and reporting, evidence-backed treatments are curing the disease and prolonging lives.
Alternative Therapies
- With the spread of internet, there has been a rise in the claims and proponents of alternative therapies like fasting, going off sugar and dairy and having neem and lemon water.
- Had cancer cure been possible with these therapies, and there was scientific evidence establishing a direct link, then there would not have been so many women patients, with their age profile becoming younger.
Science Backed Treatments and Their Success
- In 1882, William Halsted performed the first radical mastectomy to treat breast cancer.
- The first chemotherapy was used in 1943 and radiation therapy in the 1900s.
- The novel CART-T cell therapy has even caused remission of blood cancers.
- From chemotherapy and immunotherapy to hormonal and targeted therapies, the five-year cancer survival rate has gone up from 20% to now between 70 and 90%, depending on type and severity.
- The survival rate of children with blood cancers has gone up from 10% to 50 and 90%, depending on their condition.
Treatment Trials
- Trials are meticulous and thorough.
- Randomised studies usually compare two sets of patients at the same stage of cancer.
- One group is subjected to standard therapies in use while the other group is given standard therapies and something which worked in animal studies.
- They are then followed up for a minimum of two years and more.
- If successful, the trials are extended to include human subjects in larger numbers, across geographies and sometimes across different gene pools.
- A successful trial is then observed again before a drug protocol is even suggested, with intervention at each stage guided by the body of evidence.
Cancer and Diet
- Since diet has a metabolic response, it may have some effect on cancer cells but won’t be a cure.
- Diet can only be a complementary therapy, based on the fact that eating clean not only enhances well-being, like reducing obesity and diabetes, but in cancer patients, helping them in convalescence.
- Chemotherapy continues to have side effects and intermittent fasting or calorie deficit cannot be recommended for all patients, especially those who have cancers of the oesophagus, gall bladder and stomach, and are generally emaciated.
Way Forward: For the emerging therapies to be accepted by the scientific community, the studies should be conducted in an ethical manner and the conclusions are published in peer-reviewed journals to make sure results aren’t fabricated.