Topic 1 : Not zero sum
Introduction: Going by the exuberant Indo-Russian bonhomie on display during External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s visit to Moscow this week, it is tempting to view the bilateral relationship in zero-sum terms with other great powers.
History of India-Russia relations and significance of Jaishankar’s visit
- Jaishankar rightly pointed out that the Indo-Russian relationship has been exceptionally steady amidst oscillations in relations between other major powers.
- India and Russia have not had any serious bilateral disputes, and their geopolitical interests have often converged on maintaining a stable balance of power in Asia since the middle of the 20th century.
- Jaishankar’s visit seeks to maintain the intensity of high-level political engagement with the Russian leadership at a time when the annual summits between PM Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin could not be convened in the last two years amidst the war in Ukraine.
India-Russia Relation post Ukraine crisis
- The absence of annual summits does not mean the relationship has withered.
- Bilateral commercial economic engagement has surged in the last two years.
- Bilateral trade has grown from about $12 billion to $50 billion last year, thanks to the massive oil imports from Moscow which could no longer sell oil in its traditional European markets because of sanctions.
- India came under widespread criticism in the West for not condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine and for expanding its energy and economic cooperation with Moscow.
- Delhi withstood those pressures because of the conviction that preserving a productive relationship with Moscow was a critical element of India’s national security strategy.
- Yet, it is wrong to interpret Jaishankar’s Moscow visit as a major Indian decision to embrace Russia amid presumed setbacks to India’s relationship with the US.
- That conclusion is wrong since the unfortunate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun episode does not mark a break in the thriving strategic partnership between India and the US.
- Delhi and Washington are trying to manage the consequences of the Pannun case.
India’s strategic autonomy: diversification of relations with other powers
- India and Russia are not harking back to their old relationship.
- The context of the bilateral relationship with Russia has fundamentally changed.
- India is no longer a deferential junior partner looking up to Russia for support.
- India’s GDP in 1991 was half that of Russia’s — $270 million to $518 million; India’s economy today is bigger than Russia’s by a large margin — $3.6 trillion to $2.2 trillion.
- This gap will continue to grow in Delhi’s favour. India is diversifying away from its traditional military dependence on Russia — France and the US have emerged as major arms suppliers to Delhi.
- India’s commercial and technological relationships are deeply tied to the US, Europe and the UK.
- A large section of the Indian diaspora resides in the English-speaking world.
- Delhi will not abandon these consequential ties with the West to please Moscow.
- India is reconstituting its Russia relationship as an equal.
- At a time when Delhi’s ties with China are in deep freeze, Moscow’s engagement with Beijing has rapidly expanded.
- Delhi and Moscow are conscious that they are on opposite sides of the world’s main geopolitical Faultline today — between Washington and Beijing.
Challenges in India-Russia relations
- Ukraine War: India's neutral stance on the war has strained relations with the West, potentially impacting its ties with Russia. Balancing its relationship with Russia while maintaining strategic partnerships with the US and its allies remains a delicate act for India.
- Shifting Dynamics: Russia's increasing closeness to China, India's main rival, creates a sense of unease in New Delhi. India might be wary of getting too close to a Russia allied with its competitor.
- Trade Imbalance: The current trade dynamic heavily favors Russia, with India importing oil and military equipment but struggling to export significantly. Diversifying trade and creating a more balanced exchange could be beneficial.
Opportunities for greater cooperation
- Defence Cooperation: Despite challenges, Russia remains a crucial source of military equipment for India. Collaboration on joint development and production of defence technology could offer mutual benefits.
- Energy Security: Diversifying India's energy sources while continuing to benefit from discounted Russian oil imports could be a strategic option. Cooperation in building energy infrastructure and exploring alternative energy sources is also a possibility.
- Space and Nuclear Collaboration: Both countries have strong programs in these fields, and joint research and development efforts could be mutually beneficial.
- Regional Connectivity: Enhancing cooperation on initiatives like the International North-South Transport Corridor and the Chennai-Vladivostok Eastern Maritime Corridor could benefit both countries economically.
- People-to-People Ties: Promoting cultural exchange, educational opportunities, and academic collaborations could foster a deeper understanding and strengthen the relationship at the grassroots level.
Conclusion: India and Russia value sustaining a sensible bilateral relationship that will expand their room for manoeuvre in the increasingly bipolar world. Stability of India-Russia ties points to settling down of Delhi's new great power diplomacy.
Topic 2 : Reimagine the counter-strike
Introduction: The saga of insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir has largely been dominated by the Valley narrative. The twin border districts of Rajouri and Poonch in the Jammu region have always been a footnote to Kashmir’s turbulent history of Partition, militancy and militarisation.
Significance of Rajouri and Poonch in Security Calculus
- Over the last couple of years, the region has been in the news for all the wrong reasons.
- In 2023 alone, Rajouri, Poonch and Reasi districts in the Jammu region reportedly witnessed the deaths of 55 individuals, including 20 security personnel and 28 terrorists.
- The year commenced on an ominous note when seven civilians were killed at Dangri, Rajouri on January 1.
- In the early years of militancy in the 1990s, the districts of Rajouri and Poonch were essentially used to access the Valley, cutting across the Pir Panjal range by exploiting the terrain for concealed movement.
- Targeted militancy-related incidents in this belt date back to 1996-97.
- By then, pro-independence elements and local militant leadership had been replaced by foreign tanzeems like Hizbul Mujahideen, Harkat-Ul-Ansar and Lashkar-e-Toiba.
- Since then, this region has been a “fallback option” for the terror groups and their handlers in Pakistan whenever their machinations are scuttled in the Kashmir Valley.
The history of threats emanating from these districts
- The late ’90s and early 2000s witnessed terror activities peaking in this general area, especially around Surankote, not very far from Dera Ki Gali (DKG), the site of the latest ambush on security forces that resulted in four soldiers being killed in action.
- The Indian Army conducted Operation Sarp Vinash in the year 2003.
- The operation was carried out in the Surankote area of the Pir Panjal Range and dealt a deadly blow to the base of militancy in the region.
- The most encouraging facet of the army’s operations was the support from the majority community of Gujjars and Bakarwals.
- This support was not just passive but also in the form of active participation, wherein Village Defence Committees stood up against the militants and fought shoulder-to-shoulder with the Indian Army.
Recent ambush on army and its meaning
- Although the current indices of terrorism in the region do not warrant another Sarp Vinash-like operation, the twin districts continue to provide a fertile ground for terrorist operations and enable them to assert control and feign relevance.
- The ambush on December 21 was claimed by the banned People’s Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF), an offshoot of the Pakistan-backed Jaish-e-Mohammed.
- By striking outside the Valley, they are trying to depict the inclusivity of their resistance.
- The diversification of operations to the Jammu region boosts the terrorists’ rhetoric of being influential in a larger part of J&K beyond the Kashmir Valley.
The geographical advantage of these districts to the terrorists
- The treacherous terrain of the Rajouri and Poonch districts gives the terrorists impunity — they need not seek a mass support base for their survival.
- They can sustain themselves among the higher ridges of the thickly wooded semi-mountainous terrain merely by activating a few Overground Workers.
- Of course, the presence of even a limited support base for the terror groups should be a matter of concern for security forces, given the context of peace prevailing in the region for the last 15 years or so.
- This is a clear indication that something has gone wrong somewhere, and the once well-consolidated support of locals has been fraying at the edges.
The significance of gaining support from the local population
- Gaining the population’s support is a long-drawn-out process extending over several years.
- This can be frittered away with the poor handling of one situation.
- In this context, the deaths of three civilians allegedly in the military’s custody in the aftermath of the DKG ambush shall haunt the security forces.
Securitisation has led to de-development of this region
- Militarisation and the resultant violence have changed the lives of people, forever.
- The general focus on the Kashmir Valley has led to the Rajouri-Poonch region being at a disadvantage in terms of development funds, implementation of government programmes, infrastructure development, etc.
- The language of grievance and resistance in the Valley has always been different in tone than in Rajouri-Poonch.
- Here, the clamour for rights has a hopeless ring to it — a feeble struggle for compensation by unequal citizens.
Way forward
- In the current context of the receding footprint of militancy in J&K, the drive against the militants must now enter a decisive phase with bold and imaginative initiatives and countermeasures, which have to be more than merely military in nature.
- The security forces deployed in the region will have to set different parameters of success to include non-kinetic means, as part of a whole-of-government approach.
- The hard-earned faith of the local population cannot be undermined.
Conclusion: Army’s counterterrorism operation is reaching to its conclusive phase. Army cannot afford to lose civilian trust in Jammu region. A whole-of-government approach will be a way forward from here onward.